In Teruvia, the quantity of rice produced per year is currently just

A

Author is arguing that as the population increases, and no increased production of rice is planned, Teruvia will have to import rice. He is assuming that the demand for rice wont go down, pretty much.

Hi e-gmat,

Just wanted to know whether my reasoning is correct on this one.

Premise:

Currently, Domestic supply=Domestic Demand.

Supply of rice won't increase appreciably to meet increased demand in case the demand increases.

Population will be increasing.

Conclusion:

City will have to IMPORT rice.

Pre thinking assumption:

Population increase doesn't necessarily means that the DEMAND of RICE will increase and hence this is the GAP.

(a). A. No pronounced trend of decreasing per capita demand for rice is imminent in Teruvia.
In other words, DEMAND is unlikely to decrease by any chance and hence city has to import the rice.

Between A and C ...

If A is negated , it becomes "A pronounced trend of decreasing per capita demand for rice is imminent in Teruvia. "
Then the conclusion can not follow.
Teruvia will soon have to begin importing rice" --> can not follow. Since the demand is decreasing , Teruvia wont have to import rice.

If option C is negated it becomes "Some of the strains of rice grown in Teruvia are exceptionally high-yielding. "
Which means Some of the strains are high yielding some are not.

If a significant no of strains are not high yielding then the conclusion can follow i.e Teruvia will soon have to begin importing rice.

Conclusion follows after negation. So option C is not correct.

VeritasKarishma
GMATNinja
nightblade354

Is my explanation correct ?
Please check once...

The argument gives you clearly: "nor will rice yields per acre increase appreciably"

(C) None of the strains of rice grown in Teruvia are exceptionally high-yielding.

It doesn't matter whether the current strains are exceptionally high-yielding or not. Whatever rice is produced is just enough for the population. Also, the rice per acre is not going to increase appreciably. So the kind of strains of rice being grown does not impact the conclusion at all.

dear experts, what's the problem in E, although I totally understand A is the correct answer, I have no idea what's the problem in E

Even though if there are other options than rice, it will not have any effect of conclusion.

Here we are talking about importing rice only.

OFFICIAL Answer Explanation
Reasoning What must be true in order for the given premises to justify the conclusion that Teruvia will have to begin importing rice? The argument implies that domestic rice production will not increase and that there are no rice exports, imports, surpluses, or stockpiles. It also implies that since Teruvia’s population will increase, its total demand for rice will increase. But this assumes that Teruvians will not start eating less rice per person.

A Correct. This expresses the final assumption discussed above, that Teruvians will not start eating much less rice per person.
B This may suggest that finding better acreage could increase rice yields, but the argument assumes that rice yields per acre will not increase appreciably.
C This may suggest that new strains of rice could increase rice yields, but the argument assumes that rice production will not increase.
D The argument assumes only that Teruvia’s total demand for rice will increase, not that the demand in every region will increase.
E The argument does not need to assume that rice is the only crop for which domestic production and demand are balanced. It is compatible with saying, for instance, that what holds for rice also holds for other crops.

Fact 1: the quantity of rice produced per year is currently just large enough to satisfy domestic demand.
Fact 2. Teruvia’s total rice acreage will not be expanded in the foreseeable future nor will rice yields per
acre increase appreciably
Fact 3: Teruvia’s population, however, will be increasing significantly for years to come

Conclusion: Teruvia will soon have to begin importing rice.
Now since the production of rice is not going to increase and the population will continue to rise, it only
makes sense that Teruvia will soon run out of rice UNLESS as the population increases the people begin
to consume less rice.
A. CORRECT. Negate this
“There is a pronounced trend of decreasing per capita demand for rice in Teruvia”
this would automatically destroy our conclusion and is therefore the assumption on which the argument
depends.
B. Irrelevant. Since this is already the case, the amount of rice produced wont decrease and hence wont
affect out conclusion.
C. Irrelevant. We know that the yield will remain constant.
D. We are concerned with the general population growth and not region wise growth.
E. Irrelevant.

I think A is better choice than others but still A can be argued. Because as in argument it is mentioned that population will increase. Even if per capita consumption is decrease, still there could be chances that Country need to import rice.

How about others?

Just one question here: Though demand per capita is a function of population, option A does not address by how much the population increases. So when negating option A, we need to rely on the information from the passage to understand by how much the population is increasing. Passage says "significantly"; 20% does not seem enough to justify that. Can someone talk me out of this?

(A) No pronounced trend of decreasing per capita demand for rice is imminent in Teruvia.

The argument is based on the premise that Teruvia's population is increasing significantly, and the country's rice production will not be sufficient to meet this growing demand. To reach this conclusion, the argument assumes that there is no pronounced trend of decreasing per capita demand for rice in Teruvia. If there was such a trend (meaning that each person in Teruvia was consuming less rice on average over time), it could offset the need to import more rice, even with a growing population.

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