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Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the - 2 Qs

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Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the - 2 Qs [#permalink]

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New post 19 Oct 2005, 05:28
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Questions 1-2 are based on the following.

Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who is unemployed.

Sharon: But a normal, moderate level of unemployment is 5 percent, with 1 out of 20 workers unemployed. So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 workers, 1 or more will very likely be unemployed.

1. Sharon's argument is structured to lead to which of the following as a conclusion?

(A) The fact that 90% of the people know someone who is unemployed is not an indication that unemployment is abnormally high.
(B) The current level of unemployment is not moderate.
(C) If at least 5% of workers are unemployed, the result of questioning a representative group of people cannot be the percentage Roland cites.
(D) It is unlikely that the people whose statements Roland cites are giving accurate reports.
(E) If an unemployment figure is given as a certain percent, the actual percentage of those without jobs is even higher.

2. Sharon's argument relies on the assumption that

(A) normal levels of unemployment are rarely exceeded
(B) unemployment is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of the population
(C) the number of people who each know someone who is unemployed is always higher than 90% of the population
(D) Roland is not consciously distorting the statistics he presents
(E) knowledge that a personal acquaintance is unemployed generates more fear of losing one's job than does knowledge of unemployment statistics

Note:
1. These two questions are discussed separately in the following two topics. For reading and further discussions, please refer to the corresponding topic.
OG10#138: roland-the-alarming-fact-is-that-90-percent-of-the-og10-8416.html
OG10#139: roland-the-alarming-fact-is-that-90-percent-of-the-og10-9618.html
Here the first question is Q#138 from OG10 and second question is Q#139 from OG10.
2. The topic is locked as there should be one question per topic.


[Reveal] Spoiler:
1. A
2. B
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Re: CR: Roland vs Sharon [#permalink]

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New post 23 Sep 2010, 07:05
Hi I am unable to understand answer for second question(assumption)

Please explain!!!
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Re: CR: Roland vs Sharon [#permalink]

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New post 23 Sep 2010, 07:33
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Hi I am unable to understand answer for second question(assumption)

Please explain!!!



1. Sharon's argument is structured to lead to which of the following as a conclusion?

Sharon states than a moderate rate of umeployment is 5% and then justifies her statement (A) The fact that 90% of the people know someone who is unemployed is not an indication
that unemployment is abnormally high.

Actually Sharon is implying that it is normal (B) The current level of unemployment is not moderate.

Irrelevant (C) If at least 5% of workers are unemployed, the result of questioning a representative
group of people cannot be the percentage Roland cites.

Out of scope (D) It is unlikely that the people whose statements Roland cites are giving accurate reports.

Irrelevant (E) If an unemployment figure is given as a certain percent, the actual percentage of those
without jobs is even higher.

2. Sharon's argument relies on the assumption that

Irrelvant (A) normal levels of unemployment are rarely exceeded

This is the assumption. For example, if it was concentrated and the whoel country was seperated into two groups of 50 people: one group might not know anyone who is umployment and the other group might know 20 people that are umeployment (since it is concentrated) and in this case Sharon's generalized assumption is not correct (B) unemployment is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of the
population

Maybe true, but this is not Sharon's assumption it is more of ther conclusion (C) the number of people who each know someone who is unemployed is always higher
than 90% of the population

Irrelevant (D) Roland is not consciously distorting the statistics he presents

Irrelevant (E) knowledge that a personal acquaintance is unemployed generates more fear of losing
one's job than does knowledge of unemployment statistics
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Re: CR: Roland vs Sharon [#permalink]

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New post 24 Sep 2010, 19:47
adishail wrote:
Quote:
Hi I am unable to understand answer for second question(assumption)

Please explain!!!



1. Sharon's argument is structured to lead to which of the following as a conclusion?

Sharon states than a moderate rate of umeployment is 5% and then justifies her statement (A) The fact that 90% of the people know someone who is unemployed is not an indication
that unemployment is abnormally high.

Actually Sharon is implying that it is normal (B) The current level of unemployment is not moderate.

Irrelevant (C) If at least 5% of workers are unemployed, the result of questioning a representative
group of people cannot be the percentage Roland cites.

Out of scope (D) It is unlikely that the people whose statements Roland cites are giving accurate reports.

Irrelevant (E) If an unemployment figure is given as a certain percent, the actual percentage of those
without jobs is even higher.

2. Sharon's argument relies on the assumption that

Irrelvant (A) normal levels of unemployment are rarely exceeded

This is the assumption. For example, if it was concentrated and the whoel country was seperated into two groups of 50 people: one group might not know anyone who is umployment and the other group might know 20 people that are umeployment (since it is concentrated) and in this case Sharon's generalized assumption is not correct (B) unemployment is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of the
population

Maybe true, but this is not Sharon's assumption it is more of ther conclusion (C) the number of people who each know someone who is unemployed is always higher
than 90% of the population

Irrelevant (D) Roland is not consciously distorting the statistics he presents

Irrelevant (E) knowledge that a personal acquaintance is unemployed generates more fear of losing
one's job than does knowledge of unemployment statistics


good explanation. thanks
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Re: CR: Roland vs Sharon [#permalink]

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New post 13 Nov 2011, 07:23
adishail wrote:
Quote:
Hi I am unable to understand answer for second question(assumption)

Please explain!!!



1. Sharon's argument is structured to lead to which of the following as a conclusion?

Sharon states than a moderate rate of umeployment is 5% and then justifies her statement (A) The fact that 90% of the people know someone who is unemployed is not an indication
that unemployment is abnormally high.

Actually Sharon is implying that it is normal (B) The current level of unemployment is not moderate.

Irrelevant (C) If at least 5% of workers are unemployed, the result of questioning a representative
group of people cannot be the percentage Roland cites.

Out of scope (D) It is unlikely that the people whose statements Roland cites are giving accurate reports.

Irrelevant (E) If an unemployment figure is given as a certain percent, the actual percentage of those
without jobs is even higher.

2. Sharon's argument relies on the assumption that

Irrelvant (A) normal levels of unemployment are rarely exceeded

This is the assumption. For example, if it was concentrated and the whoel country was seperated into two groups of 50 people: one group might not know anyone who is umployment and the other group might know 20 people that are umeployment (since it is concentrated) and in this case Sharon's generalized assumption is not correct (B) unemployment is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of the
population

Maybe true, but this is not Sharon's assumption it is more of ther conclusion (C) the number of people who each know someone who is unemployed is always higher
than 90% of the population

Irrelevant (D) Roland is not consciously distorting the statistics he presents

Irrelevant (E) knowledge that a personal acquaintance is unemployed generates more fear of losing
one's job than does knowledge of unemployment statistics



Hi,
Can you explain, why C cannot be the answer for the first question.
I mean, probably, A sounds as a better answer because it is assumed that, probably, Sharon wants to contradict the point directly stated by Ronald(i.e. 90% reporting is very high).
But, where does Ronald say it is very high. He says it is alarming, doesn't mean high/low, right?
But, C is a little neutral, meaning, it actually checks something like this:
Sharon checks with Ron, "If what I say is right,(i.e. 5% unemployment), then it is possibly not the group that you(Ron) are talking about, isn't it?
But, I feel, structurally, it should lead to A, and C, might just be in the process to reach A, probably? But, please explain/clarify...
Thanks in advance!
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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people [#permalink]

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New post 26 Nov 2011, 04:00
great explanations! thanks :-D
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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people [#permalink]

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New post 10 Dec 2011, 07:56
Reading this question after a few days...

Yes, C seems just a possibility now, A is quite comprehensible and conclusive.
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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people [#permalink]

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New post 10 Dec 2011, 14:24
I am sure its B, I remember this from the OG 12
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Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people [#permalink]

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New post Updated on: 06 Mar 2013, 12:31
Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they
know someone who is unemployed.

Sharon: But a normal, moderate level of unemployment is 5 percent, with 1 out of 20 workers
unemployed. So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 workers, 1 or more will
very likely be unemployed.

1. Sharon's argument is structured to lead to which of the following as a conclusion?
(A) The fact that 90% of the people know someone who is unemployed is not an indication
that unemployment is abnormally high.
(B) The current level of unemployment is not moderate.
(C) If at least 5% of workers are unemployed, the result of questioning a representative
group of people cannot be the percentage Roland cites.
(D) It is unlikely that the people whose statements Roland cites are giving accurate reports.
(E) If an unemployment figure is given as a certain percent, the actual percentage of those
without jobs is even higher.

2. Sharon's argument relies on the assumption that
(A) normal levels of unemployment are rarely exceeded
(B) unemployment is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of the
population
(C) the number of people who each know someone who is unemployed is always higher
than 90% of the population
(D) Roland is not consciously distorting the statistics he presents
(E) knowledge that a personal acquaintance is unemployed generates more fear of losing
one's job than does knowledge of unemployment statistics

Plz need detail explanation............

Originally posted by mun23 on 06 Mar 2013, 07:27.
Last edited by mun23 on 06 Mar 2013, 12:31, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people [#permalink]

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New post 06 Mar 2013, 12:23
This question is from the Official Guide itself.

1. Should be (A) as that almost paraphrases what Sharon is saying.

2. (B) is the correct answer. If unemployment is concentrated in geographically isolated segments, then there would be regions where most people personally knowing someone who is unemployed could mean that unemployment is actually high. Sharon's argument then does not hold.
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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people [#permalink]

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mun23 wrote:
Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who is unemployed.

Sharon: But a normal, moderate level of unemployment is 5 percent, with 1 out of 20 workers unemployed. So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 workers, 1 or more will very likely be unemployed.

1. Sharon's argument is structured to lead to which of the following as a conclusion?
(A) The fact that 90% of the people know someone who is unemployed is not an indication that unemployment is abnormally high.
(B) The current level of unemployment is not moderate.
(C) If at least 5% of workers are unemployed, the result of questioning a representative group of people cannot be the percentage Roland cites.
(D) It is unlikely that the people whose statements Roland cites are giving accurate reports.
(E) If an unemployment figure is given as a certain percent, the actual percentage of those without jobs is even higher.

2. Sharon's argument relies on the assumption that
(A) normal levels of unemployment are rarely exceeded
(B) unemployment is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of the population
(C) the number of people who each know someone who is unemployed is always higher than 90% of the population
(D) Roland is not consciously distorting the statistics he presents
(E) knowledge that a personal acquaintance is unemployed generates more fear of losing one's job than does knowledge of unemployment statistics

Dear mun23,

It's a bit confusing what you have posted here. You have posted two questions and only one OA. I assume the OA you posted was for question #2, and it's not clear whether you want help for question #1 and/or question #2.

In my reading, the OA for #1 is (A) and the OA for #2 is (B). I'll just discuss #2 ---- since you posted the OA to #2, I assume that's the one about which you have a question.

Roland is concerned --- 90% of people in the country know someone who is unemployed, and Roland apparently takes this as evidence that unemployment is high. This is a somewhat bogus argument. Sharon raises what is at root a very sensible objection --- because 90% know someone who is unemployed does not necessarily mean the unemployment rate is high. I'm going to guess that the vast majority of the population, almost everyone, personally knows someone over the age of 80 --- this doesn't mean that the majority of the population is over 80, but just that there are enough 80+ year olds distributed in the population densely enough that virtually everyone knows at least one person like this.

Sharon's argument is essentially a probabilistic argument --- if every person knows 50 people, then if 5% = 0.05 = 1/20 of all people are unemployed, then there's a very high chance that of the 50 random folks one person knows, at least one of them is unemployed. One subtle thing about this argument --- this argument works well if 1/20 is a true probability, that is, if we can pick essentially any group of fifty people, and the probability that any one person is unemployed is 1/20, and this probability is more or less constant as we look at different groups of 50. If the probability is not fixed --- if it's higher in some places and lower in other places --- then that changes the nature of the argument.

Suppose, for simplicity, the entire country consists of just ten cities, with small and equal populations. Suppose people know each other well within each city, but essentially no one from one city knows any one from any other city. (This is a highly unrealistic scenario, just to demonstrate the logic.)
SCENARIO #1: 5% of the people in each of the cities are unemployed --- then, most people in each city would know someone unemployed. Because there's an even distribution, about 90% or more of the population would know someone unemployed, even though only 5% of the population is unemployed. This assumes more or less even distribution of the unemployed. This is consistent with Sharon's argument.
SCENARIO #2: Now, consider an extreme of population concentration --- 50% of the people in City #1 are unemployed, and everyone in the other nine cities are fully employed. Here, everyone in City #1 would know someone unemployed, but City #1 is only 10% of the population. Assume the folks in different cities don't know each other, so no one else know the unemployed in City #1. Thus, 5% of the population is unemployed, and only 10% of the population knows someone unemployed.
In other words, if the unemployed are more-or-less evenly distributed in the population, that is, if we could go anywhere, any region or any subgroup of the population, and the probability that any single person is unemployed is about 5%, then we could have only 5% unemployment but a very high percentages, maybe 90%, who know someone who is unemployed: again, this is essentially Sharon's argument. BUT, if the unemployed are not even distributed, and are instead concentrated geographically in particular places, then Sharon's argument would no longer be valid.

That's why (B) is an excellent answer, the best answer for question #2.

Does this make sense?
Mike :-)
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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people [#permalink]

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New post 07 Mar 2013, 18:47
I ran on this thread after searching CR practice. This is a trickier question and I think a better summary of the conclusion question would be this

Sharon counters something in Roland's argument using a 'but'. We don't know whether that's the statistic or or his alarm. This becomes clearer at the end of the statement, she counters his alarm, as she cites her own stat and then says there will 'very likely be unemployed,' implying it shouldn't surprise Roland

Another point to take note of is language on a more subtle level. Roland cites 90% across the country. Sharon makes no such great claim.


I had it come down to A and C and the reason I would omit C is, as this is a main point inference conclusion question C seems to be not only doubting the statistic (already established in the premise) but setting up something that isn't the main point, but an additional premise, exactly what you DONT want on a main point/inference question. It just doesn't seem right.
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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the - 2 Qs [#permalink]

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New post 21 Apr 2013, 01:38
All duplicate threads on this topic have been merged.

Please check and follow the Guidelines for Posting in Verbal GMAT forum before posting anything.
Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the - 2 Qs   [#permalink] 21 Apr 2013, 01:38

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