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# Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139

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Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139 [#permalink]

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09 Sep 2004, 13:36
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Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who is unemployed.

Sharon: But a normal, moderate level of unemployment is 5 percent, with 1 out of 20 workers unemployed. So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 workers, 1 or more will very likely be unemployed.

Sharon's argument relies on the assumption that

(A) normal levels of unemployment are rarely exceeded
(B) unemployment is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of the population
(C) the number of people who each know someone who is unemployed is always higher than 90% of the population
(D) Roland is not consciously distorting the statistics he presents
(E) knowledge that a personal acquaintance is unemployed generates more fear of losing one's job than does knowledge of unemployment statistics

Note: There is another question (conclusion question) which is based upon the same argument. For reading and further discussion on that question, please use the following link:
roland-the-alarming-fact-is-that-90-percent-of-the-og10-8416.html

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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139 [#permalink]

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12 Jul 2017, 01:54
Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who is unemployed.

Sharon: But a normal, moderate level of unemployment is 5 percent, with 1 out of 20 workers unemployed. So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 workers, 1 or more will very likely be unemployed.

90% of the people know someone is unemployed. 1 person knows 50 workers, 1 or more likely to to be unemployed. I assumed by statistics based on the fact that unemployment is located in dense population areas because that is the method being described in the premise of getting to know if there is unemployment or not.. by knowing people who are unemployed. If i am sitting in an isolated area then for me, there is no unemployment. Not even 5 percent. This answer came through rigorous POE.

Sharon's argument relies on the assumption that

(A) normal levels of unemployment are rarely exceeded
Tempting answer but look at the word difference. Moderate vs Normal.

(B) unemployment is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of the population
Refer my assumption

(C) the number of people who each know someone who is unemployed is always higher than 90% of the population
I stumbled on this answer choice. But then just think for a moment, it is a complete re-phrase of the conclusion.

(D) Roland is not consciously distorting the statistics he presents
We are not concerned about Roland's statistics.

(E) knowledge that a personal acquaintance is unemployed generates more fear of losing one's job than does knowledge of unemployment statistics
We are not concerned about the after math of it.

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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139 [#permalink]

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18 Aug 2017, 05:12
B
by negation technique.

If negated it destroys the conclusion.
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Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139 [#permalink]

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20 Aug 2017, 09:09
Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who is unemployed.

Sharon: But a normal, moderate level of unemployment is 5 percent, with 1 out of 20 workers unemployed. So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 workers, 1 or more will very likely be unemployed.

Sharon's argument relies on the assumption that

(A) normal levels of unemployment are rarely exceeded
(B) unemployment is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of the population
(C) the number of people who each know someone who is unemployed is always higher than 90% of the population
(D) Roland is not consciously distorting the statistics he presents
(E) knowledge that a personal acquaintance is unemployed generates more fear of losing one's job than does knowledge of unemployment statistics

My take -

First lets identify the conclusion for this question. Question asks to find the assumption of Sharon's argument.

Conclusion - At any given time if a person knows approximately 50 workers, 1 or more will very likely be unemployed.
or At any given time if a person knows approximately 50 workers, at least one will very likely be unemployed.

Any of the options which support the negation of the above argument, that is will actually break the above argument. Will be the answer.
Negation of Conclusion - At any given time if a person knows approximately 50 workers, none will very likely be unemployed.

(B) Negated - unemployment is normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of the population.
It supports the negation of conclusion above. At any given time if a person knows approximately 50 workers, none will very likely be unemployed. Because all the unemployed people are normally concentrated on a geographically isolated segments of the population. So, no one knows of these geographically isolated unemployed people. Thus, B is the correct answer.

The image attached clears the option B in more detail. Please let me know, if someone has still any doubt on this question.
Attachments

CR-Roland-Sharon.PNG [ 37.64 KiB | Viewed 306 times ]

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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139 [#permalink]

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21 Aug 2017, 05:40
Merged topics. Please, search before posting questions!
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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139 [#permalink]

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31 Oct 2017, 04:37
What should be the approach to the question?
the options are really ambiguous for me to understand.

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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139 [#permalink]

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09 Nov 2017, 15:41
Quote:
Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who is unemployed.

Sharon: But a normal, moderate level of unemployment is 5 percent, with 1 out of 20 workers unemployed. So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 workers, 1 or more will very likely be unemployed.

Sharon's argument relies on the assumption that

(A) normal levels of unemployment are rarely exceeded
(B) unemployment is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of the population
(C) the number of people who each know someone who is unemployed is always higher than 90% of the population
(D) Roland is not consciously distorting the statistics he presents
(E) knowledge that a personal acquaintance is unemployed generates more fear of losing one's job than does knowledge of unemployment statistics

What should be the approach to the question?
the options are really ambiguous for me to understand.

According to Sharon, the fact that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who is unemployed is no cause for alarm. Why not? .. because if the average person knows about 50 workers and if the moderate unemployment level is 5%, then it is likely that the average person will know at least unemployed person. In other words, the fact that 90 percent of people know someone who is unemployed might be explained by moderate unemployment, not necessarily by alarming levels of unemployment.

We need an answer choice on which that line of reasoning depends.

Quote:
(B) unemployment is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of the population

Say we have moderate levels of employment (with 1 out of 20 workers unemployed). If unemployment is spread out evenly across the country, then the author's argument makes sense. In other words, if unemployment is evenly spread, then I can pick any 100 workers and expect to find about 5 unemployed workers in that group.

What if most of those unemployed workers are concentrated in a few geographically isolated segments of the population? In that case, if unemployment is moderate, we would expect MOST people to NOT know an unemployed worker and SOME people to know several unemployed workers.

But Roland tells us that now 90 percent of the people in this country report knowing someone who is unemployed. If unemployment is concentrated in only a few isolated segments, then this statistic is alarming. Why?... because now most people, even those who are NOT in those isolated segments, know someone who is unemployed. Unless unemployment is evenly spread, Roland's statistic suggests that unemployment is much higher than 5%.

I hope that helps!
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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139   [#permalink] 09 Nov 2017, 15:41

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