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# Statistician: Changes in the Sun s luminosity correlate

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Director
Joined: 26 Apr 2004
Posts: 861
Location: Taiwan
Statistician: Changes in the Sun s luminosity correlate  [#permalink]

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14 Mar 2005, 01:41
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Difficulty:

95% (hard)

Question Stats:

28% (01:56) correct 72% (02:27) wrong based on 76 sessions

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Statistician: Changes in the Sun's luminosity correlate exceedingly well with average land temperatures on Earth. Clearly-and contrary to accepted opinion among meteorologist's, the Sun's luminosity essentially controls land temperatures on Earth.

Meteorologist: I disagree. Any professional meteorologist will tell you that in a system as complicated as that giving rise to the climate, no significant aspect can be controlled by a single variable.

The reasoning in the meteorologist's counterargument questionable because that argument

(A) rejects a partial explanation, not because it is incorrect, but only because it is not complete

(B) fails to distinguish phenomena that exist independently of a particular system from phenomena that exist only as part of the system

(C) calls into question the existence of a correlation when the only real issue is that of how to interpret the correlation

(D) dismisses a hypothesis on the grounds that it fails to deal with any matters of scientific significant

(E) appeals to the authoritativeness of an opinion without evaluating the merit of a putative counterexample
Manager
Joined: 19 Nov 2004
Posts: 197
Location: Germany
Re: Statistician: Changes in the Sun s luminosity correlate  [#permalink]

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14 Mar 2005, 08:42
I'm sorry, but I didn't quite understand the question

"The reasoning in the meteorologistâ€™s counterargument questionable because that argument." Is there something missing here? Any pointers on how to interpret this question?
SVP
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 1577
Re: Statistician: Changes in the Sun s luminosity correlate  [#permalink]

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14 Mar 2005, 10:54
maaverick wrote:
I'm sorry, but I didn't quite understand the question

"The reasoning in the meteorologistâ€™s counterargument questionable because that argument." Is there something missing here? Any pointers on how to interpret this question?

You are supposed to complete this sentence with one of the choices given.
CEO
Joined: 07 Jul 2004
Posts: 3327
Location: Singapore
Re: Statistician: Changes in the Sun s luminosity correlate  [#permalink]

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14 Mar 2005, 10:56
HongHu wrote:
This is a hard one, I think I'll take E.

Honghu, how does (E) -appeals to the authoritativeness of an opinion without evaluating the merit of a putative counterexample - tie in to the answer?
SVP
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 1577
Re: Statistician: Changes in the Sun s luminosity correlate  [#permalink]

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Updated on: 15 Mar 2005, 11:21
vprabhala wrote:
can you please explain why E?

The statistician concluded that the sun control earth's temperature with a regression. The meteologist dismiss this claim, not after debating why it is wrong, but to appeal to the authority of other meterologists' opinion, saying that they all agree it is impossible.

An example could be this:

A: I found some evidences that lead me to suspect that the scientists are wrong in saying that the earth is round.
B: But all the scientists say that the earth is round.
What B should have done is to look at A's evidences and refute them on their own merit. For all we know all the scientists could be wrong.

Originally posted by HongHu on 14 Mar 2005, 11:00.
Last edited by HongHu on 15 Mar 2005, 11:21, edited 1 time in total.
CEO
Joined: 07 Jul 2004
Posts: 3327
Location: Singapore
Re: Statistician: Changes in the Sun s luminosity correlate  [#permalink]

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14 Mar 2005, 11:07
HongHu wrote:
vprabhala wrote:
can you please explain why E?

The statistician concluded that sun control's earth temperature with a regression. The meteologist dismiss this claim, not after debating why it is wrong, but to appeal to the authority of other meterologists' opinion, saying that they all agree it is impossible.

An example could be this:

A: I found some evidences that lead me to suspect that the scientists are wrong in saying that the earth is round.
B: But all the scientists say that the earth is round.
What B should have done is to look at A's evidences and refute them on their own merit. For all we know all the scientists could be wrong.

Honghu, I can't find anything in the passage that appeals to the authority of other meterologist's opinion. In fact, it seesm most of the other meteorologists believe that the sun controls earth's temperature (exactly how, we do not know). This is given to us in the statistician's claim "and contrary to accepted opinion among meteorologists"
SVP
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 1577
Re: Statistician: Changes in the Sun s luminosity correlate  [#permalink]

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14 Mar 2005, 11:26
1
The statician says: Contrary to what meterologists believe, the sun controls earth's temperature. This implies that meterologists don't believe the sun controls the earth's temperature.

And then the meteologist says: Any meteologist will tell you etc etc. He was trying to use the opinion of any meterologist as the authority to refute the statistican's argument, without really look into his argument.

It's like when two children argues about whether C is a bad guy.
A: I don't think C is a bad guy.
B: But my dad says he is!
Director
Joined: 26 Apr 2004
Posts: 861
Location: Taiwan
Re: Statistician: Changes in the Sun s luminosity correlate  [#permalink]

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14 Mar 2005, 20:13
Yes, HongHu.

Also please give me more explanation to refute A.

I didn't see any error in vprabhala's reasoning before.

Sometimes correcting the wrong answer is more important than picking the right answer.

Thanks
SVP
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 1577
Re: Statistician: Changes in the Sun s luminosity correlate  [#permalink]

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15 Mar 2005, 08:55
A would be correct if this is how the argument goes:

A: The sun is one of the factors that affect the earth temperature.
B: That is not right. There are other factors.

However in our question it goes like this:
A: Essentially the sun is the only factor that affect the earth temperature.
B: All the meteologists will tell you that this is not right.
CEO
Joined: 07 Jul 2004
Posts: 3327
Location: Singapore
Re: Statistician: Changes in the Sun s luminosity correlate  [#permalink]

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15 Mar 2005, 10:04
A says "rejects a partial explanation, not because it is incorrect, but only because it is not complete". But in the first statement by the statistician, is there really an explanation. There doesn't seem to be one, as he's just stating a correlation he observed, and using which he made some conclusion. So I think we can reject (A) on this basis.
Non-Human User
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 7317
Re: Statistician: Changes in the Sun s luminosity correlate  [#permalink]

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06 May 2019, 06:09
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Re: Statistician: Changes in the Sun s luminosity correlate   [#permalink] 06 May 2019, 06:09
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