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# Statistician: Changes in the Sun s luminosity correlate

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VP
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Statistician: Changes in the Sun s luminosity correlate [#permalink]

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14 Mar 2005, 01:41
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Statistician: Changes in the Sunâ€™s luminosity correlate exceedingly well with average land temperatures on Earth. Clearlyâ€”and contrary to accepted opinion among meteorologistsâ€”the Sunâ€™s luminosity essentially controls land temperatures on Earth.

Meteorologist: I disagree. Any professional meteorologist will tell you that in a system as complicated as that giving rise to the climate, no significant aspect can be controlled by a single variable.

The reasoning in the meteorologistâ€™s counterargument questionable because that argument

(A) rejects a partial explanation, not because it is incorrect, but only because it is not complete

(B) fails to distinguish phenomena that exist independently of a particular system from phenomena that exist only as part of the system

(C) calls into question the existence of a correlation when the only real issue is that of how to interpret the correlation

(D) dismisses a hypothesis on the grounds that it fails to deal with any matters of scientific significant

(E) appeals to the authoritativeness of an opinion without evaluating the merit of a putative counterexample
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Director
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14 Mar 2005, 07:47
I would say A.
Statistician is only saying that the SUN contorls.. doesn't say that ONLY SUN Is the controlling one.

where as the meterologist totally rejects the idea i.e the partial explanation that sun could also control.

any thoughts on this one?

B) fails to distinguish phenomena that exist independently of a particular system from phenomena that exist only as part of the system .
Not OK

(C) calls into question the existence of a correlation when the only real issue is that of how to interpret the correlation
correlation in this context is between the sun and the climate. doesn't question.

(D) dismisses a hypothesis on the grounds that it fails to deal with any matters of scientific significant
Irrelavant

(E) appeals to the authoritativeness of an opinion without evaluating the merit of a putative counterexample
Irrelavant
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14 Mar 2005, 08:42
I'm sorry, but I didn't quite understand the question

"The reasoning in the meteorologistâ€™s counterargument questionable because that argument." Is there something missing here? Any pointers on how to interpret this question?
VP
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14 Mar 2005, 08:57
maaverick wrote:
I'm sorry, but I didn't quite understand the question

"The reasoning in the meteorologistâ€™s counterargument questionable because that argument." Is there something missing here? Any pointers on how to interpret this question?

A) as well !

"The reasoning in the meteorologistâ€™s counterargument questionable because that argument..." => you just have to complete the sentence by the following choices.
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14 Mar 2005, 09:32
Statistician:
- Changes in sun's luminosity correlate well with average ladn temperatures on earth
- Clearly sun's luminosity controls land temperature on Earth <--- big logical gap missing in between
- This is an accepted opinion among meteorologist

Meteorologist
- Any professional meteorologist will tell you that in a system as complicated as that giving rise to climate, no significant aspect can be controlled by a single aribale (luminosity)

Conclusion: Meteorologist's counterargument is questionable.

(A) rejects a partial explanation, not because it is incorrect, but only because it is not complete
- it does reject a partial explanation based on statistics, but we're told the opinion that luminosity controls land temperatures on earth is an accepted opinion among meteorologist. So the explanation is not incorrect, but not complete (statistician did not explain why this is so)

(B) fails to distinguish phenomena that exist independently of a particular system from phenomena that exist only as part of the system
- No phenomena exist independently here. (we're told of correlation)

(C) calls into question the existence of a correlation when the only real issue is that of how to interpret the correlation
- The metorologist did not reject the correlation

(D) dismisses a hypothesis on the grounds that it fails to deal with any matters of scientific significant
- out of scope

(E) appeals to the authoritativeness of an opinion without evaluating the merit of a putative counterexample
- out of scope

A it is.
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14 Mar 2005, 10:50
maaverick wrote:
I'm sorry, but I didn't quite understand the question

"The reasoning in the meteorologistâ€™s counterargument questionable because that argument." Is there something missing here? Any pointers on how to interpret this question?

I couldn't make sense out of this sentence either ""The reasoning in the meteorologistâ€™s counterargument questionable because that argument."

Agreed we are suppose to completed the reasoning here but, this sentence either has a typo or
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14 Mar 2005, 10:51
Folaa3 wrote:
maaverick wrote:
I'm sorry, but I didn't quite understand the question

"The reasoning in the meteorologistâ€™s counterargument questionable because that argument." Is there something missing here? Any pointers on how to interpret this question?

I couldn't make sense out of this sentence either ""The reasoning in the meteorologistâ€™s counterargument questionable because that argument."

Agreed we are suppose to completed the reasoning here but, this sentence either has a typo or

I think we can logically assume the missing word is 'is'.
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14 Mar 2005, 10:52
This is a hard one, I think I'll take E.
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14 Mar 2005, 10:54
maaverick wrote:
I'm sorry, but I didn't quite understand the question

"The reasoning in the meteorologistâ€™s counterargument questionable because that argument." Is there something missing here? Any pointers on how to interpret this question?

You are supposed to complete this sentence with one of the choices given.
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14 Mar 2005, 10:56
HongHu wrote:
This is a hard one, I think I'll take E.

Honghu, how does (E) -appeals to the authoritativeness of an opinion without evaluating the merit of a putative counterexample - tie in to the answer?
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14 Mar 2005, 11:00
vprabhala wrote:
can you please explain why E?

The statistician concluded that the sun control earth's temperature with a regression. The meteologist dismiss this claim, not after debating why it is wrong, but to appeal to the authority of other meterologists' opinion, saying that they all agree it is impossible.

An example could be this:

A: I found some evidences that lead me to suspect that the scientists are wrong in saying that the earth is round.
B: But all the scientists say that the earth is round.
What B should have done is to look at A's evidences and refute them on their own merit. For all we know all the scientists could be wrong.

Last edited by HongHu on 15 Mar 2005, 11:21, edited 1 time in total.
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14 Mar 2005, 11:07
HongHu wrote:
vprabhala wrote:
can you please explain why E?

The statistician concluded that sun control's earth temperature with a regression. The meteologist dismiss this claim, not after debating why it is wrong, but to appeal to the authority of other meterologists' opinion, saying that they all agree it is impossible.

An example could be this:

A: I found some evidences that lead me to suspect that the scientists are wrong in saying that the earth is round.
B: But all the scientists say that the earth is round.
What B should have done is to look at A's evidences and refute them on their own merit. For all we know all the scientists could be wrong.

Honghu, I can't find anything in the passage that appeals to the authority of other meterologist's opinion. In fact, it seesm most of the other meteorologists believe that the sun controls earth's temperature (exactly how, we do not know). This is given to us in the statistician's claim "and contrary to accepted opinion among meteorologists"
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14 Mar 2005, 11:26
The statician says: Contrary to what meterologists believe, the sun controls earth's temperature. This implies that meterologists don't believe the sun controls the earth's temperature.

And then the meteologist says: Any meteologist will tell you etc etc. He was trying to use the opinion of any meterologist as the authority to refute the statistican's argument, without really look into his argument.

It's like when two children argues about whether C is a bad guy.
A: I don't think C is a bad guy.
B: But my dad says he is!
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14 Mar 2005, 11:28
HongHu wrote:
The statician says: Contrary to what meterologists believe, the sun controls earth's temperature. This implies that meterologists don't believe the sun controls the earth's temperature.

And then the meteologist says: Any meteologist will tell you etc etc. He was trying to use the opinion of any meterologist as the authority to refute the statistican's argument, without really look into his argument.

It's like when two children argues about whether C is a bad guy.
A: I don't think C is a bad guy.
B: But my dad says he is!

You're right honghu !! I mis-read again. Guess it's my body telling me to go to sleep, it's 2:28 in the morning
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14 Mar 2005, 11:34
Yes, I made more mistakes when I stayed up late too. A well rested mind is necessary to couqure this beast.
VP
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14 Mar 2005, 20:13
Yes, HongHu.

Also please give me more explanation to refute A.

I didn't see any error in vprabhala's reasoning before.

Sometimes correcting the wrong answer is more important than picking the right answer.

Thanks
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15 Mar 2005, 08:55
A would be correct if this is how the argument goes:

A: The sun is one of the factors that affect the earth temperature.
B: That is not right. There are other factors.

However in our question it goes like this:
A: Essentially the sun is the only factor that affect the earth temperature.
B: All the meteologists will tell you that this is not right.
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15 Mar 2005, 09:21
E it is.

Hong Hu's explanation says it all.
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15 Mar 2005, 10:04
A says "rejects a partial explanation, not because it is incorrect, but only because it is not complete". But in the first statement by the statistician, is there really an explanation. There doesn't seem to be one, as he's just stating a correlation he observed, and using which he made some conclusion. So I think we can reject (A) on this basis.
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Statistician: Changes in the Sun’s luminosity correlate exce [#permalink]

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23 Jun 2013, 10:17
Statistician: Changes in the Sun’s luminosity correlate exceedingly well with average land temperatures on Earth. Clearly—and contrary to accepted opinion among meteorologists—the Sun’s luminosity essentially controls land temperatures on Earth.
Meteorologist: I disagree. Any professional meteorologist will tell you that in a system as complicated as that giving rise to the climate, no significant aspect can be controlled by a single variable.

The rejection by the meteorologist of the statistician’s conclusion employs which one of the following techniques of argumentation?
(A) supporting a conclusion about a specific case by invoking a relevant generalization
(B) producing a single counterexample that establishes that a generalization is false as state
(C) reanalyzing a correlation as reflecting the multiple effects of a single cause
(D) rejecting a conclusion because it is a proposition that cannot be experimentally tested
(E) pointing out that potentially unfavorable evident has been systematically neglected
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Last edited by Zarrolou on 23 Jun 2013, 10:20, edited 1 time in total.
Merging similar topics.
Statistician: Changes in the Sun’s luminosity correlate exce   [#permalink] 23 Jun 2013, 10:17

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