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The coming economic recovery will surely be strong. Most of

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neashwar
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The coming economic recovery will surely be strong. Most of [#permalink] New post   Updated on: 15 Jun 2016, 11:51
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The coming economic recovery will surely be strong. Most of the economists in the investment companies now aggree this is so, though the leading academic economists still think otherwise. since the investment companies' economists are risking their jobs when they make forecasts, wheras academic economists have lifelong tenure, it generally makes sense to take the investment companies' economists more seriously.

The main conclusion of the argument is supported only

A. by comparing the number of experts who agree with the conclusion with the number who disagree with the conclusion

B. through an assessment of the likely risks and consequences of believing one or another strand of expert opinion

C. through projection from the economic prospects for investment companies to the economic prospects for the economy as a whole

D. through an assessment of the relative reliability of the experts who agree with the conclusion as compared with that of those who disagree

E. by attacking the character of those experts who disagree with the conclusion
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D

Originally posted by neashwar on 10 Nov 2011, 03:51.
Last edited by Skywalker18 on 15 Jun 2016, 11:51, edited 1 time in total.
Added the OA
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Re: The coming economic recovery will surely be strong. Most of [#permalink] New post   12 Nov 2011, 03:38
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D for me.

The argument tries to say that investment company's economists are more reliable than the academics because the economists are accountable for their predictions. The academics might be able to get away with a wrong prediction though. That is the idea I see.

OA ?
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Re: The coming economic recovery will surely be strong. Most of [#permalink] New post   24 Nov 2011, 05:29
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+1 D.........OA please...........
The coming economic recovery will surely be strong.=>main conclusion
Most of the economists in the investment companies now aggree this is so, though the leading academic economists still think otherwise since the investment companies' economists are risking their jobs when they make forecasts, wheras academic economists have lifelong tenure, .=>premise
it generally makes sense to take the investment companies' economists more seriously.=>intermediate conclusion
A. by comparing the number of experts who agree with the conclusion with the number who disagree with the conclusion number of....Out of scope
B. through an assessment of the likely risks and consequences of believing one or another strand of expert opinion.Risks and consequences after believing hasnt been discussed ; only reasons for why one strand might be more believable has been discussedC. through projection from the economic prospects for investment companies to the economic prospects for the economy as a whole. Economic prospects of investment companies not being discussed at all.
D. through an assessment of the relative reliability of the experts who agree with the conclusion as compared with that of those who disagree.CORRECT Thats what has been done by the author.....according to him the industry experts are relatively more reliable because they have an incentive to be correct
E. by attacking the character of those experts who disagree with the conclusion. Charecter doesnt come into picture
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Re: The coming economic recovery will surely be strong. Most of [#permalink] New post   15 Jan 2019, 02:03
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Option B is a trap; reading carefully it talks of likely risks emanating from believing the opinion. Now, the risk assessment in the passage talks of and deals with relative risks being undertaken by the experts and not relative risks flowing out of believing the opinions. D is much better as it allows for assessment of the reliability of the experts- this is what the passage precisely does when it states that the corporate economists are more reliable than the academic ones because their job is on the line.
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Re: The coming economic recovery will surely be strong. Most of [#permalink] New post   03 Feb 2020, 19:43
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varotkorn wrote:
Dear VeritasKarishma AnthonyRitz IanStewart GMATGuruNY AjiteshArun VeritasPrepBrian,

Q1. What's wrong with choice E.?
IMO, Citing the characteristics of the jobs is attacking the character of those experts. Is there any solid reason to reject this choice?

Q2. Where is the "assessment" stated anywhere in the stimulus?
IMO, There is no pros / cons or even analysis involved. It's just pure speculation.

Thank you!
Hi varotkorn,

We should view character as a reference to "deeper" qualities. Take a look at the following:

1. Police put their lives on the line every day.
2. Other citizens do not.

This doesn't automatically mean that other citizens are morally deficient in some way. For example, we could use these two to say that police are in the best position to decide on issues that affect them. This would not be an attack on the character of other citizens. It'd be more like "police have more at stake, and so are more likely to take better decisions".
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Re: The coming economic recovery will surely be strong. Most of [#permalink] New post   04 Feb 2020, 01:12
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varotkorn wrote:
Dear AjiteshArun,

Thank you for your response!

Q1. You have provided an example to illustrate the correct choice D. Could you also provide an example for what choice E. might look like - "deeper" qualities?

I'm still not sure whether I can tell the differences between the two.

Q2. I've been taught to be aware of the word "assessment" that it must be the analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of the topic. I haven't seen any of that in the correct choice D. Could you please guide what to look for when I see "assessment"?

Thank you as always sir! :please :please :please
Hi varotkorn,

I think those qualities would include things like honesty and integrity, the deeper values (including moral values) that drive a person. That's just my opinion though, and I'd be happy to hear your take on this.

I feel assessment is fine. The author is looking at who is more (or less) motivated to look into the issue.
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Re: The coming economic recovery will surely be strong. Most of [#permalink] New post   04 Feb 2020, 22:12
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varotkorn wrote:
Dear AjiteshArun,

When I see choice E., I thought "attacking the character of those experts who disagree with the conclusion" was spot on.

The stimulus says "the investment companies' economists are risking their jobs when they make forecasts, whereas academic economists have lifelong tenure". I thought the author tries to say that:

1. The investment companies' economists are serious about their jobs. They work hard to make the prediction.
2. Academic economists are frivolous. They may not pay much attention to their jobs because regardless of their accuracy in their prediction they are not gonna get fired anyway!

In short, the stimulus talks about work ethics - their work style - and their professional motivation. Nowhere is stated about their past performance, recognition from economist society, their publish papers,... Just very subjective speculation.

Moreover, when I look up in the dictionary (https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictio ... /character), it doesn't necessarily connote the moral quality. The dictionary says it means "the particular combination of qualities in a person or place that makes them different from others" IMO, character could mean any distinct characteristic. So, I think work style could count as one's character.

However, in choice D., I hesitate to say that the stimulus contains any "assessment".

Why my thinking is wrong here?

Thank you sir! :please :please :please
Hi varotkorn,

I think one way to think about this is to ask ourselves what would happen if the roles were reversed. That is, if the academics were also given the same motivation, would their results be as reliable? If there is something that is fundamentally wrong with the way they do things, something inherently wrong, then we'd expect that their results would not be reliable even when their jobs are on the line.

But if their results are more reliable when they are given that motivation, that would indicate that it is not their character that is flawed (it's just the circumstances). This is why, in the absence of further information, I would not automatically take this to be an attack on their character.
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Re: The coming economic recovery will surely be strong. Most of [#permalink] New post   10 Nov 2011, 06:20
IMO option B.

This is because the argument assumes that if the investment companies' economists make a wrong or incorrect prediction, it is likely that they will lose their job. However, the academic economists' jobs are safe even when their prediction turns out to be an incorrect one.
This suggests that the conclusion is based on the likely assessment of the risks and consequences of each economists' opinion.
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Re: The coming economic recovery will surely be strong. Most of [#permalink] New post   11 Nov 2011, 02:45
I struggled with this one. What's the OA?
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Re: The coming economic recovery will surely be strong. Most of [#permalink] New post   11 Nov 2011, 04:20
I will go with B. Mainly because of this "Since the investment companies' economists are risking their jobs when they make forecasts"
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Re: The coming economic recovery will surely be strong. Most of [#permalink] New post   13 Nov 2011, 00:56
I choose C. What is the OA?

C. through projection from the economic prospects for investment companies to the economic prospects for the economy as a whole
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Re: The coming economic recovery will surely be strong. Most of [#permalink] New post   18 Nov 2011, 07:13
I was torn between B and D originally, but after taking a second look at them I believe D is the correct answer. It is the economists who are taking a risk, and not the person deciding which economist to agree with.

D
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Re: The coming economic recovery will surely be strong. Most of [#permalink] New post   18 Nov 2011, 07:48
I vote for D . Waiting for someone to post OA

Strengthen the Conc:

Indust Eco eco risk job- forecasts - Acad Eco long tenure, take Indust Eco opinion more seriously

---------------------------------------------

- IE agree - Eco recovery to be strong
- BUT AE disagree - ECO recovery not to be strong

A - IRR
B - Open discussion and IRR
C - IRR
D - "Relative" proportion to who agree vs who disagree - correct
E - Irr
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Re: The coming economic recovery will surely be strong. Most of [#permalink] New post   19 Nov 2011, 09:54
I think the answer is D. I was wavering between B and D, but went with D since the answer focuses on the reliability of the experts in question. Since the conclusion focused on the reliability of either group of experts (due to job insecurity or lack thereof), I think that D would be the most supporting.
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Re: The coming economic recovery will surely be strong. Most of [#permalink] New post   19 Nov 2011, 10:02
My 2nd thought, I choose D. This answer is more relevant and precise in supporting the argument.
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Re: The coming economic recovery will surely be strong. Most of [#permalink] New post   25 Nov 2011, 05:53
I was struggling between C and D . But at the end I chose C . Can someone please post the OA.
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Re: The coming economic recovery will surely be strong. Most of [#permalink] New post   25 Nov 2011, 21:43
I will go with D.
Exp :
Close call between B and D , though B talks about the risks and consequences of believing one to other ,not the argument of reasoning . Whereas D talks rightly about the reliability ( ''it generally makes sense to take the investment companies' economists more seriously'') which explains the situation.
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Re: The coming economic recovery will surely be strong. Most of [#permalink] New post   06 Dec 2011, 04:24
conclusion: trust the economist from the investment companies.
reason: their job depends on it.

A: out, nothing to do with the number of economist on the both sides
B: evaluating risk, might not help the economist from the investment companies.
C:comparing economic prospects wont help.
E: out of scope.

D is the only one left!

Whats the OA.
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Re: The coming economic recovery will surely be strong. Most of [#permalink] New post   09 Dec 2011, 09:52
I was torn between b and D.
B is wrong though because it talks about the risks involved in believing in the strand of opinion.
D is correct because it analyzes why one set of opinions is more reliable than another.
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Re: The coming economic recovery will surely be strong. Most of [#permalink] New post   15 Jan 2019, 01:07
A. Out of scope. Numbers really are not a concern here. It is the collective opinion that matters.
B. Risks and consequences involved in believing hasn't been discussed; only reasons for why one strand might be more believable has been discussed
C. Economic prospects of investment companies not being discussed at all.
D. CORRECT. Analyzes why one set of opinions is more reliable than another. According to author, the industry experts are relatively more reliable because they have an incentive to be correct
E. Character doesn’t come into picture
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Re: The coming economic recovery will surely be strong. Most of [#permalink]
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