The incidence of suicide in the country of Travonia has increased dramatically in recent years, as evidenced by the fact that since the introduction of several nonprescription brands of sleeping pills, the number of deaths from overdoses alone has nearly doubled. However, certain types of suicides have not increased in number during this period. It is true that elderly suicides have seen a greater than 70 percent increase, but teen suicides now account for only 30 percent of all suicides in the country. This is a significant decrease over 1985, when teen cases represented 65 percent of all country-wide suicides.

The argument above is most vulnerable to criticism on the grounds that it does which of the following?


(A) It discounts the possibility of suicides occurring in groups other than the elderly and teenagers. Incorrect

argument based on elderly and teenagers suicide deaths

(B) It takes for granted that the introduction of non-prescription sleeping pills has had the same effect on two different demographic groups. Incorrect

already know from argument elderly suicide deaths increase than teenagers suicide deaths

(C) It assumes that a decrease in the percentage of teen suicides necessarily signifies a decrease in the number of teen suicides. Correct

argument overlooks the possibility that 30 percent and 65 percent can be same if total number of suicide deaths increase

(D) It overlooks the possibility that the total number of deaths in Travonia has increased since 1985. Incorrect

contradicts with argument

(E) It relies on evidence that contradicts its conclusion Incorrect

there is no contradiction between evidence and conclusion

Boil it down: certain types of suicide has not increased because % of teen suicide is down.
Pre-thinking: does this mean that the # of teens dying is actually less? What if the population has increased dramatically?

Our options:

(A) It discounts the possibility of suicides occurring in groups other than the elderly and teenagers.

The argument is really talking about these two demographies, so this is out.

(B) It takes for granted that the introduction of non-prescription sleeping pills has had the same effect on two different demographic groups.

Again, this is not the conclusion. The sleeping pills had some impact but the argument isn't vulnerable to criticism because the author says it had the same effect on both people. We don't even know what that effect is.

(C) It assumes that a decrease in the percentage of teen suicides necessarily signifies a decrease in the number of teen suicides.

Correct. Exactly as we had predicted.

(D) It overlooks the possibility that the total number of deaths in Travonia has increased since 1985.

Total # of deaths...is it non suicide related? This could be the case but we only care about suicide deaths particularly within teens.

(E) It relies on evidence that contradicts its conclusion

Nope. This one's an easy out.

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Argument: This is a significant decrease over 1985, when teen cases represented 65 percent of all country-wide suicides.

Pre-thinking: % decrease is not sufficient to show that there is a significant decrease in suicides for teenagers.

The argument above is most vulnerable to criticism on the grounds that it does which of the following?

(A) It discounts the possibility of suicides occurring in groups other than the elderly and teenagers. -> No. we have data to share demographic suicides %. Incorrect.

(B) It takes for granted that the introduction of non-prescription sleeping pills has had the same effect on two different demographic groups. -> It is not the best criticism, we can have. Incorrect.

(C) It assumes that a decrease in the percentage of teen suicides necessarily signifies a decrease in the number of teen suicides. -> It is as per our pre-thinking and can be the best criticism. Let's keep it.

(D) It overlooks the possibility that the total number of deaths in Travonia has increased since 1985. -> Irrelevant.

(E) It relies on evidence that contradicts its conclusion -> No! It is based on few facts and % drawn.

So, I think C.

IMO C

The incidence of suicide in the country of Travonia has increased dramatically in recent years, as evidenced by the fact that since the introduction of several nonprescription brands of sleeping pills, the number of deaths from overdoses alone has nearly doubled. However, certain types of suicides have not increased in number during this period. It is true that elderly suicides have seen a greater than 70 percent increase, but teen suicides now account for only 30 percent of all suicides in the country. This is a significant decrease over 1985, when teen cases represented 65 percent of all country-wide suicides.

The argument above is most vulnerable to criticism on the grounds that it does which of the following?

After highlighting the key content of the argument, the below really jumps out at the eyes:
1. Teen suicides : Only 30% of all suicides (we do not know teen population, 30% of what?)
2. Previously teen suicides : 65% of country wide suicides ( 65% of what? What was the teen population back then?)

(A) It discounts the possibility of suicides occurring in groups other than the elderly and teenagers.
Not a part of the conclusion.

(B) It takes for granted that the introduction of non-prescription sleeping pills has had the same effect on two different demographic groups.
This is not discussed.

(C) It assumes that a decrease in the percentage of teen suicides necessarily signifies a decrease in the number of teen suicides.
Correct- as per explanation above.

(D) It overlooks the possibility that the total number of deaths in Travonia has increased since 1985.
This is already stated in the conclusion

(E) It relies on evidence that contradicts its conclusion
Incorrect.

The incidence of suicide in the country of Travonia has increased dramatically in recent years, as evidenced by the fact that since the introduction of several nonprescription brands of sleeping pills, the number of deaths from overdoses alone has nearly doubled. However, certain types of suicides have not increased in number during this period. It is true that elderly suicides have seen a greater than 70 percent increase, but teen suicides now account for only 30 percent of all suicides in the country. This is a significant decrease over 1985, when teen cases represented 65 percent of all country-wide suicides.

The argument above is most vulnerable to criticism on the grounds that it does which of the following?


(A) It discounts the possibility of suicides occurring in groups other than the elderly and teenagers.
It is possible that only two groups of people, i. e. elders and teenagers are the only groups, which commit suicide.

(B) It takes for granted that the introduction of non-prescription sleeping pills has had the same effect on two different demographic groups.
This is not mentioned.

(C) It assumes that a decrease in the percentage of teen suicides necessarily signifies a decrease in the number of teen suicides.
Correct.
If the number of elderly people committing suicide increase dramatically in number, the number of teen suicides need not increase. It can stay the same.
e. g. Earlier, teen cases were 390 out of 600 cases, which is 65 % of all cases.
Now, the teen cases are 390 out of 1300 cases, which is 30 % of all the cases

(D) It overlooks the possibility that the total number of deaths in Travonia has increased since 1985.
This is incorrect. It might be the case that the total number of deaths had decreased, while only the suicides INCREASED.

(E) It relies on evidence that contradicts its conclusion.
Incorrect

Choice C is the answer.

KAPLAN OFFICIAL EXPLANATION:

Where do the test makers find these depressing places? People in Travonia are killing themselves in record numbers. Let's see what's going on. The author states that Travonia's suicide rate has increased, citing an increase in the number of overdoses following the recent release of certain brands of sleeping pills. Getting to the heart of the argument, the author then asserts that certain types of suicides have not increased in number, conceding that the percentage of elderly suicides has increased but noting that the percentage of teen suicides has decreased. The latter fact sounds like good news on the face of it, but is tempered by the fact that the author blurs the distinction between numbers and percents. just because the percentage represented by teen suicides has decreased, that doesn't mean that fewer teens are committing suicide. A decreased percentage needn't signify a decreased number of suicides, and the author's flaw comes in failing to recognize this, as (C) expresses. A common logical flaw, indeed.

(A) The argument doesn't explicitly discuss other groups, but it certainly doesn't discount the possibility that other groups might exist.

(B) Not really, since the author doesn't link the sleeping pill takers to either demographic group, as mentioned in the explanation for (A).

(D) The total number of deaths in general is outside the scope of the argument, which deals exclusively with deaths from suicides and overdoses. The author need not consider the overall death figures in Travonia in order to make this argument.

(E) is vague, and wrong. The evidence about percentages doesn't contradict the author's conclusion, it just doesn't necessarily support it in the way the author suggests.

An 800 test taker is crystal clear on the distinction between numbers and percentages.
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