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# The probability of a man hitting a bulls eye in one fire is

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Senior Manager
Joined: 15 Jun 2010
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Schools: IE'14, ISB'14, Kellogg'15
WE 1: 7 Yrs in Automobile (Commercial Vehicle industry)
The probability of a man hitting a bulls eye in one fire is [#permalink]

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07 Aug 2012, 06:49
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35% (medium)

Question Stats:

70% (01:41) correct 30% (01:49) wrong based on 207 sessions

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The probability of a man hitting a bulls eye in one fire is 1/4. What is the least number of times that the man should fire in order to take the probability of hitting the bulls eye at least once to more than 50%.

A. 5
B. 7
C. 3
D. 12
E. 6
[Reveal] Spoiler: OA

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Last edited by SOURH7WK on 07 Aug 2012, 07:10, edited 2 times in total.

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Manager
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Location: India
Concentration: Finance, Strategy
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Re: The probability of a man hitting a bulls eye in one fire is [#permalink]

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07 Aug 2012, 09:13
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SOURH7WK wrote:
The probability of a man hitting a bulls eye in one fire is 1/4. What is the least number of times that the man should fire in order to take the probability of hitting the bulls eye at least once to more than 50%.

A. 5
B. 7
C. 3
D. 12
E. 6

It is a Typical Probability Question
IN Probability we have a rule ( which is logic actually) that
P(>1) = 1-P(0)
That is Probability of hitting the bulls eye at least once out of N trials is 1- probability of missing it all the times. & P of missing it is 3/4

That means$$1-(\frac{3}{4})^n$$ > $$\frac{1}{2}$$

Solve it , n > 3 satisfies.

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Re: The probability of a man hitting a bulls eye in one fire is [#permalink]

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07 Aug 2012, 07:05
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SOURH7WK wrote:
The probability of a man hitting a bulls eye in one fire is 1/4. What is the least number of times that the man should fire in order to take the probability of hitting the bulls eye at least once to more than 50%.

A. 5
B. 7
C. 3
D. 12
E. 6

OA will follow after few discussions

The probability that the man hits the bulls eye at least once in 2 tries is 1-(3/4)^2=7/16, so less than 1/2 (the probability of hitting the bulls eye at least once is 1 minus the probability of the opposite event, so the probability that the men misses in all 2 tries).

The probability that the man hits the bulls eye at least once in 3 tries is 1-(3/4)^3=37/64, so more than 1/2.

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Re: The probability of a man hitting a bulls eye in one fire is [#permalink]

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08 Aug 2012, 10:20
very helpful Bunuel/mandyr, need to revise the "at least" rule and this helps, thank you both

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Re: The probability of a man hitting a bulls eye in one fire is [#permalink]

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14 Jul 2013, 00:10
Bumping for review and further discussion.
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Re: The probability of a man hitting a bulls eye in one fire is [#permalink]

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10 Aug 2014, 04:36
Hello from the GMAT Club BumpBot!

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Re: The probability of a man hitting a bulls eye in one fire is [#permalink]

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31 Aug 2015, 03:36
Hello from the GMAT Club BumpBot!

Thanks to another GMAT Club member, I have just discovered this valuable topic, yet it had no discussion for over a year. I am now bumping it up - doing my job. I think you may find it valuable (esp those replies with Kudos).

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Re: The probability of a man hitting a bulls eye in one fire is [#permalink]

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01 Aug 2017, 19:08
Hello from the GMAT Club BumpBot!

Thanks to another GMAT Club member, I have just discovered this valuable topic, yet it had no discussion for over a year. I am now bumping it up - doing my job. I think you may find it valuable (esp those replies with Kudos).

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Re: The probability of a man hitting a bulls eye in one fire is   [#permalink] 01 Aug 2017, 19:08
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