Newspaper article: Pecan growers get a high price for their crop when pecans are comparatively scarce, but the price drops sharply when pecans are abundant. Thus, in high-yield years, growers often hold back part of their crop in refrigerated warehouses until after the following year’s harvest, hoping for higher prices then. This year’s pecan crop was the smallest in five years. It is unlikely, therefore, that any of this year’s crop will be held back.
Conclusion of the argument:
It is unlikely, therefore, that any of this year’s crop will be held back.
Support:
This year’s pecan crop was the smallest in five years.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?
The correct answer to this Weaken question will show that, even though the evidence is true, the conclusion may not be.
A. Each of the last two years produced record-breaking pecan yields, and an unusually high percentage of last year’s crop was held back.
This choice is interesting.
After all, it indicates that, while this years crop was small, pecans are still "abundant" because of the yields of the last two y ears.
So, farmers may have a reason to hold back part of this year's crop as well.
This choice isn't a super clear weakener, but since none of the other choices work at all, we can safely select this one.
Keep.
B. The quality of this year’s pecan crop is typical of the quality of the pecan crops of the previous five years.
The quantity not the "quality" is what causes farmers to hold back part of the crop.
Also, if the crop was "typical," then nothing special occurred to cause farmers to hold back part of the crop.
Eliminate.
C. Because of the practice of holding back part of the crop from especially high-yield years, pecan prices have not been subject to sharp fluctuations in recent years.
This indicates that the practice as used has been working, making the conclusion likely to be true because farmers will likely do what they typically do if it has been working.
Eliminate.
D. For some pecan growers, this year’s crop was no smaller than last year’s.
It has been established that the total crop was "the smallest in five years." Thus, this was not a high-yield year.
Some outliers don't change that.
Eliminate.
E. The last time the pecan crop was as small as it was this year, the practice of holding back part of one year’s crop in anticipation of higher prices the next year had not yet become widespread.
What was the case in the past doesn't affect current practices.
Eliminate.
Correct answer: A