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Town X and Town Y are roughly equal in size and local population. A su

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Town X and Town Y are roughly equal in size and local population. A su  [#permalink]

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New post 05 Jan 2019, 09:13
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Town X and Town Y are roughly equal in size and local population. A survey was done measuring traffic patterns during the summer months for each of the past 5 years. The survey found that, on average in Town Y, there were 28 minor car accidents in June as well as 28 in July. During the same two months in Town X, the average was only 14 minor car accidents each month. Thus, if the Dentco Autobody Repair franchise were looking to open a new shop in one of the two towns, it would be more likely to succeed in Town Y.

Which of the following, if true, would most seriously damage the conclusion drawn in the passage?


A. More people walk to work or use mass transit in Town Y.

B. The state is planning to add a thruway exit for Town Y.

C. The traffic volume in Town Y quadruples in the summer because it is a beach town.

D. In June and July six years ago, Town X had double the amount of accidents than Y.

E. There are rumors of a megamall possibly being constructed in Town X.

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Re: Town X and Town Y are roughly equal in size and local population. A su  [#permalink]

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New post 09 Jan 2019, 09:52
A. More people walk to work or use mass transit in Town Y. (So what ? Does the argument gives us a hint anywhere that less people walking means less car accidents ? )

B. The state is planning to add a thruway exit for Town Y. (Out of scope )

C. The traffic volume in Town Y quadruples in the summer because it is a beach town. (Aha ! Correct. This is an alternate explanation of why number of accidents increase in summer. It is probably not a great idea to open a shop just by looking at a seasonal data)

D. In June and July six years ago, Town X had double the amount of accidents than Y. (We are concerned about opening a shop now and not last year)

E. There are rumors of a megamall possibly being constructed in Town X. (What effect would it have on the number of accidents or car repairs ? We do not know)
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Re: Town X and Town Y are roughly equal in size and local population. A su  [#permalink]

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New post 09 Jan 2019, 10:18
nightblade354. Your view on this question?
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Re: Town X and Town Y are roughly equal in size and local population. A su  [#permalink]

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New post 09 Jan 2019, 10:31
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Wonderwoman31,

Town X and Town Y are roughly equal in size and local population. A survey was done measuring traffic patterns during the summer months for each of the past 5 years. The
survey found that, on average in Town Y, there were 28 minor car accidents in June as well as 28 in July. During the same two months in Town X, the average was only 14 minor car accidents each month. Thus, if the Dentco Autobody Repair franchise were looking to open a new shop in one of the two towns, it would be more likely to succeed in Town Y.

Initial thoughts: We talk about sheer numbers in Y, but talk about averages in town x. This is probably, and ends up being, the issue at hand and the best way to weaken the question. I want to point out, however, that this question is flawed, as are most Kaplan questions. I strongly recommend people stick to other, better sources.

Which of the following, if true, would most seriously damage the conclusion drawn in the passage?


A. More people walk to work or use mass transit in Town Y. -- OK, who cares? What if everyone who drives in town Y is a terrible driver and gets into an accident every day? We would need to assume that the drivers are all, on average, about equal in terms of proneness to accidents.

B. The state is planning to add a thruway exit for Town Y. -- Once more, who cares? We would need to assume that this would add more crash-prone people. And we do not assume anything on the GMAT or the LSAT.

C. The traffic volume in Town Y quadruples in the summer because it is a beach town. -- Here we go; the best of the worst. If the amount of people quadruples, then it is likely that the numbers are not sustainable and this does weaken the argument. BUT, we do not know this for sure, and thus this question blows because this is not a sink-proof answer.

D. In June and July six years ago, Town X had double the amount of accidents than Y. -- Who cares about six years ago?

E. There are rumors of a megamall possibly being constructed in Town X. -- What if it doesn't go in? What if it does and no one shows up? What if everyone is a perfect driver who goes there? Doesn't help us
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Town X and Town Y are roughly equal in size and local population. A su  [#permalink]

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New post 10 Jan 2019, 03:46
Bunuel wrote:
Town X and Town Y are roughly equal in size and local population. A survey was done measuring traffic patterns during the summer months for each of the past 5 years. The survey found that, on average in Town Y, there were 28 minor car accidents in June as well as 28 in July. During the same two months in Town X, the average was only 14 minor car accidents each month. Thus, if the Dentco Autobody Repair franchise were looking to open a new shop in one of the two towns, it would be more likely to succeed in Town Y.

Which of the following, if true, would most seriously damage the conclusion drawn in the passage?


A. More people walk to work or use mass transit in Town Y.

B. The state is planning to add a thruway exit for Town Y.

C. The traffic volume in Town Y quadruples in the summer because it is a beach town.

D. In June and July six years ago, Town X had double the amount of accidents than Y.

E. There are rumors of a megamall possibly being constructed in Town X.


KAPLAN OFFICIAL EXPLANATION:



C

Conclusion: The driving conditions in Town Y are more dangerous than Town X, leading to more frequent occurrences of minor car accidents that will naturally provide more job opportunities for an autobody shop.

Evidence: Indeed, Town Y has averaged twice as many minor car accidents than Town X. However, the figures are only for the two summer months. If the traffic volume quadruples for those two months and there were an average of 28 accidents each month, it can be assumed that for the remaining 10 months there is actually only an average of 7 accidents per month, half the rate of Town X. These numbers would indicate that Dentco should actually open their shop in Town X.

(A) is irrelevant because the higher number of accidents in Town Y still occurred even with the higher number of walkers and those who use mass transit. Because adding a thruway exit for Town Y would only increase the traffic volume, (B) would strengthen the conclusion. (D) doesn't weaken the conclusion because the figures predate the survey, and since then an unspecified condition has influenced the numbers to reverse for five years in a row. Rumors (E) do not qualify as evidence, and therefore do weaken the conclusion.
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Re: Town X and Town Y are roughly equal in size and local population. A su  [#permalink]

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New post 10 Jan 2019, 04:24
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Bunuel, I think you posted the wrong OE

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Re: Town X and Town Y are roughly equal in size and local population. A su  [#permalink]

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New post 10 Jan 2019, 04:27
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Re: Town X and Town Y are roughly equal in size and local population. A su   [#permalink] 10 Jan 2019, 04:27
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