"True" unemployment rate at 20% : Financial Markets
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"True" unemployment rate at 20%

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"True" unemployment rate at 20% [#permalink]

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New post 09 Jul 2009, 02:05
Well, I guess the real question is what information constitutes a statistic? What defines the qualification criteria?

Maybe it's a nice compromise is to take the average of both headline and U6. But, even with that, you get an unemployment rate of 13%. If you take the average of all three, including the shadow stats figure, you will get (surprisingly very close to U6) 16.8%.

http://blogs.moneycentral.msn.com/topst ... at-20.aspx

Really, how hard is it to find a job? Was June's horrid numbers, in which 467,000 people lost their jobs compared to 345,000 in May, a one-time fluke? Or does it mean that all those Wall Street economists who believe the economic recovery is starting are dead wrong?

Not to scare you, but the situation is actually worse than it seems. Over the years, the government has changed the way it counts the unemployed. An example of this is the criticized Birth-Death Model which was added in 2000. The model is designed to account for the birth and death of businesses and the resultant lag in survey data. Unfortunately, the model doesn't work that well during economic contractions (like we have now) and consistently overstates the number of jobs being created each month.

John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics specializes in removing these questionable tweaks to the government's statistical data to better align current numbers with the methodology used to gather historical data. After reviewing the data, Williams believes that "the June jobs loss likely exceeded 700,000." David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff notes that the fall in the number of hours worked in June (to a record low of 33 per week) is equivalent to a loss of more than 800,000 jobs.
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"True" unemployment rate at 20%   [#permalink] 09 Jul 2009, 02:05
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"True" unemployment rate at 20%

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