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When 100 people who have not used cocaine are tested for

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When 100 people who have not used cocaine are tested for [#permalink]

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When 100 people who have not used cocaine are tested for cocaine use, on average only 5 will test positive. By contrast, of every 100 people who have used cocaine 99 will test positive. Thus, when a randomly chosen group of people is tested for cocaine use, the vast majority of those who test positive will be people who have used cocaine.

A reasoning error in the argument is that the argument

(A) attempts to infer a value judgment from purely factual premises
(B) attributes to every member of the population the properties of the average member of the population
(C) fails to take into account what proportion of the population have used cocaine
(D) ignores the fact that some cocaine users do not test positive
(E) advocates testing people for cocaine use when there is no reason to suspect that they have used cocaine
[Reveal] Spoiler: OA

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Last edited by broall on 10 Jun 2017, 09:29, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: When 100 people who have not used cocaine are tested for [#permalink]

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New post 05 Feb 2008, 06:00
B

When 100 people who have not used cocaine are tested for cocaine use, on average only 5 will test positive. By contrast, of every 100 people who have used cocaine 99 will test positive. Thus, when a randomly chosen group of people is tested for cocaine use, the vast majority of those who test positive will be people who have used cocaine.

A reasoning error in the argument is that the argument

(A) attempts to infer a value judgment from purely factual premises - too common
(B) attributes to every member of the population the properties of the average member of the population - the best. positive test = usage of cocaine.
(C) fails to take into account what proportion of the population have used cocaine - irrelevant
(D) ignores the fact that some cocaine users do not test positive - vice-versa. ignores the fact that some test positive users have not used cocaine
(E) advocates testing people for cocaine use when there is no reason to suspect that they have used cocaine - irrelevant
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Re: When 100 people who have not used cocaine are tested for [#permalink]

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Walker. The answer is not B
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Re: When 100 people who have not used cocaine are tested for [#permalink]

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New post 05 Feb 2008, 06:35
It is C :-D :wall
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Re: When 100 people who have not used cocaine are tested for [#permalink]

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New post 05 Feb 2008, 06:43
walker wrote:
It is C :-D :wall


Walker, Even not C. :wink:
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Re: When 100 people who have not used cocaine are tested for [#permalink]

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New post 05 Feb 2008, 06:46
neelabhmahesh wrote:
Walker, Even not C. :wink:


I give up! I definitely need a cup of coffee. :)
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Re: When 100 people who have not used cocaine are tested for [#permalink]

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New post 05 Feb 2008, 06:52
But I used "search" and found that OA is C :)

for example, only 1% of all population have used cocaine.

therefore, among 100 people we have 5 test positive persons but who have not used cocaine and ~1 who have used.
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New post 05 Feb 2008, 06:53
walker wrote:
neelabhmahesh wrote:
Walker, Even not C. :wink:


I give up! I definitely need a cup of coffee. :)


Pls think over your cup of coffee why E is OA . The answer puzzles me.
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Re: When 100 people who have not used cocaine are tested for [#permalink]

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New post 05 Feb 2008, 06:54
neelabhmahesh wrote:
walker wrote:
neelabhmahesh wrote:
Walker, Even not C. :wink:


I give up! I definitely need a cup of coffee. :)


Let me check again.
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Re: When 100 people who have not used cocaine are tested for [#permalink]

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New post 05 Feb 2008, 06:56
The answer in my stuff says E is the answer. If it wrong pls tell me.
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Re: When 100 people who have not used cocaine are tested for [#permalink]

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New post 05 Feb 2008, 07:15
Test 3, Section 1, #23 in 1000CR: OA is C
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Re: When 100 people who have not used cocaine are tested for [#permalink]

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Let us consider following give samples:
Sample A: Not Used Cocaine Users: Number of people reported positive: 5% (on average)
Sample B: Cocaine User: Number of people reported positive: 99%
As per argument, if you chosen randomly, the vast majority of those who test positive will be people who have used cocaine. Definitely the author would have taken Cocaine when he concluded this (Sorry for being rude - :roll: ). Nevertheless, author faultily reasoning all the samples will be from “Sample B”. That is, he didn’t take complete count of the two groups.


(A) attempts to infer a value judgment from purely factual premises (If so, author reasoning would have been a correct one – eliminate it)

(B) attributes to every member of the population the properties of the average member of the population (Enticing! Yes. This could be a potential winner (out of 200, 104 are Cocaine Users. ) However, the members were chosen randomly – Oops – Eliminate it).

(C) fails to take into account what proportion of the population have used cocaine(This is a good candidate too. But is this valid under random selection? Consider, the probability of picking a Cocaine User is 99 / 100 and picking non-Cocaine User is as Cocaine User = 5/100.So, no-way that we end up have same vast majority of Cocaine Users.
Let twist the argument by saying 99% of non-Cocaine users will be tested positive. Then both probabilities will match. In short, if we have proper proportions, then we can accurately find the numbers that tested positive. – Hold it
)

(D) ignores the fact that some cocaine users do not test positive (may be, but does not provide vast majority – eliminate it)

(E) advocates testing people for cocaine use when there is no reason to suspect that they have used cocaine (correct – but won’t address logical error – eliminate it)

Answer: C

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When 100 people who have not used cocaine are tested for [#permalink]

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When 100 people who have not used cocaine are tested for cocaine use, on average only 5 will test positive. By contrast, of every 100 people who have used cocaine 99 will test positive. Thus, when a randomly chosen group of people is tested for cocaine use, the vast majority of those who test positive will be people who have used cocaine.
A reasoning error in the argument is that the argument

(A) attempts to infer a value judgment from purely factual premises
(B) attributes to every member of the population the properties of the average member of the population
(C) fails to take into account what proportion of the population have used cocaine
(D) ignores the fact that some cocaine users do not test positive
(E) advocates testing people for cocaine use when there is no reason to suspect that they have used cocaine.
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Re: CR-Cocaine Test [#permalink]

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nitya34 wrote:
When 100 people who have not used cocaine are tested for cocaine use, on average only 5 will test positive. By contrast, of every 100 people who have used cocaine 99 will test positive. Thus, when a randomly chosen group of people is tested for cocaine use, the vast majority of those who test positive will be people who have used cocaine.
A reasoning error in the argument is that the argument

(A) attempts to infer a value judgment from purely factual premises
What value judgment?
(B) attributes to every member of the population the properties of the average member of the population
Yes
(C) fails to take into account what proportion of the population have used cocaine
We are not concerned about the population. Instead we are concerned about the "randomly chosen group of people"
(D) ignores the fact that some cocaine users do not test positive
It does not ignore this
(E) advocates testing people for cocaine use when there is no reason to suspect that they have used cocaine.
Out of scope.


With Flaw questions always try to identify the flaw before moving to the answer choices. Here we are told because an average # of a particular group tests positive that the "vast majority of those who test positive will be people who have used cocaine". This is similar to saying since the average GPA in a 3rd year engineer students is a 3.0, the "vast majority" of engineers' GPA is a 3.0. What if 1st year engineer students average a 2.0? or a 4.0? You cannot make a conclusion about the average GPA of all engineer students based on a subset of the class.
This is nicely stated in B.

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Re: CR-Cocaine Test [#permalink]

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When 100 people who have not used cocaine are tested for cocaine use, on average only 5 will test positive. By contrast, of every 100 people who have used cocaine 99 will test positive. Thus, when a randomly chosen group of people is tested for cocaine use, the vast majority of those who test positive will be people who have used cocaine.

A reasoning error in the argument is that the argument

Explanation:
-----------------------
(A) attempts to infer a value judgment from purely factual premises ---> In that case, it would have strengthen the argument.

(B) attributes to every member of the population the properties of the average member of the population ---> At the most, this option might strengthen the argument. If everyone shares the same property, the conclusion will strengthen. So, discard it.

(C) fails to take into account what proportion of the population have used cocaine
---> This looks fine.

The passage discusses about two groups:
Group 1. One in which, on an average, only 5 test positive
Group 2. Other in which 99 test positive.

Conclusion makes a reasoning error in assuming that even if a randomly chosen group is tested, majority of them will be the ones who have used cocaine i.e., they will belong to group 2. This may not necessarily be true.

What if the majority of the randomly chosen group comprises people belonging to group 1? Though they will still test positive, but they will belong to the group that doesn’t use cocaine. In that case, the argument will become weak.

(D) ignores the fact that some cocaine users do not test positive ---> Irrelevant

(E) advocates testing people for cocaine use when there is no reason to suspect that they have used cocaine. ---> Irrelevant.
---------------------

My choice is C.

Hope that helps.


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Re: CR-Cocaine Test [#permalink]

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New post 02 Mar 2009, 01:42
nitya34 wrote:
When 100 people who have not used cocaine are tested for cocaine use, on average only 5 will test positive. By contrast, of every 100 people who have used cocaine 99 will test positive. Thus, when a randomly chosen group of people is tested for cocaine use, the vast majority of those who test positive will be people who have used cocaine.
A reasoning error in the argument is that the argument

(A) attempts to infer a value judgment from purely factual premises
(B) attributes to every member of the population the properties of the average member of the population
(C) fails to take into account what proportion of the population have used cocaine
(D) ignores the fact that some cocaine users do not test positive
(E) advocates testing people for cocaine use when there is no reason to suspect that they have used cocaine.


I think it's D.

In C, even if most of the users are included in the group, we can't be too sure whether majority of them will test positive.

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Re: CR-Cocaine Test [#permalink]

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New post 02 Mar 2009, 02:34
(A) attempts to infer a value judgment from purely factual premises
-IMO
(B) attributes to every member of the population the properties of the average member of the population
- “properties of average member” is not given.
(C) fails to take into account what proportion of the population have used cocaine
- Do we really need to know “proportion” of people who took cocaine? This is a study result and mostly concluded the result from factual premises.
(D) ignores the fact that some cocaine users do not test positive
- Never ignored such case. 1% is negative
(E) advocates testing people for cocaine use when there is no reason to suspect that they have used cocaine.
- “Reason of suspect” is OOS
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Re: CR-Cocaine Test [#permalink]

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New post 02 Mar 2009, 02:35
I picked up B
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Re: CR-Cocaine Test [#permalink]

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Now only option E is left. :)

Any takers?
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Re: CR-Cocaine Test [#permalink]

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New post 02 Mar 2009, 02:55
+1 to you
OA-C

Technext wrote:
When 100 people who have not used cocaine are tested for cocaine use, on average only 5 will test positive. By contrast, of every 100 people who have used cocaine 99 will test positive. Thus, when a randomly chosen group of people is tested for cocaine use, the vast majority of those who test positive will be people who have used cocaine.

A reasoning error in the argument is that the argument

Explanation:
-----------------------
(A) attempts to infer a value judgment from purely factual premises ---> In that case, it would have strengthen the argument.

(B) attributes to every member of the population the properties of the average member of the population ---> At the most, this option might strengthen the argument. If everyone shares the same property, the conclusion will strengthen. So, discard it.

(C) fails to take into account what proportion of the population have used cocaine
---> This looks fine.

The passage discusses about two groups:
Group 1. One in which, on an average, only 5 test positive
Group 2. Other in which 99 test positive.

Conclusion makes a reasoning error in assuming that even if a randomly chosen group is tested, majority of them will be the ones who have used cocaine i.e., they will belong to group 2. This may not necessarily be true.

What if the majority of the randomly chosen group comprises people belonging to group 1? Though they will still test positive, but they will belong to the group that doesn’t use cocaine. In that case, the argument will become weak.

(D) ignores the fact that some cocaine users do not test positive ---> Irrelevant

(E) advocates testing people for cocaine use when there is no reason to suspect that they have used cocaine. ---> Irrelevant.
---------------------

My choice is C.

Hope that helps.


Regards,
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Re: CR-Cocaine Test   [#permalink] 02 Mar 2009, 02:55

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