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# When people predict that certain result will not take place

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Manager
Joined: 07 Jun 2007
Posts: 58
When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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01 Jul 2007, 18:52
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When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.
Manager
Joined: 26 Oct 2006
Posts: 175
Location: uk

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02 Jul 2007, 02:09
E.
Manager
Joined: 07 Jun 2007
Posts: 58
Re: CR Test III Q 20 [#permalink]

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02 Jul 2007, 12:46
crazy123 wrote:
When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.

Oa is D here. Could Anyone please explain
Senior Manager
Joined: 12 Mar 2007
Posts: 273

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02 Jul 2007, 20:07
Here's my take on it.

Let's say there is prediction that action A that results in result B.

A-->B

However, according to the last sentence: "however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation"

It means that action C, a brand new action that was not predicted, could have brought about B.

C-->B.

If both A and C resulted in B. How do we distinguish between A (the correct prediction and action) and C (incorrect prediction and action)?

We can't. Therefore, D it my pick.
Manager
Joined: 07 May 2007
Posts: 178

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02 Jul 2007, 21:06
As per your example, both cases result in correct prediction B. So how can you consider it incorrect prediction?
02 Jul 2007, 21:06
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