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# When people predict that certain result will not take place

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Manager
Joined: 07 Aug 2011
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Location: United States
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Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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26 Dec 2011, 12:30
D

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Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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26 Dec 2011, 23:07
--If people predict X then Y and Y happens then their prediction is valid
--But in reality for Y to happen there might be other conditions then X, or there might be other conditions that go along with X to make the result Y
or there might be no way to distinguish this.

(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
-- we cant specify the goal, goal is to be reached.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
-- out of scope,
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
-- nothing mentioned about trials, so out of scope
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
-- Correct
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.
-- out of scope

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Manager
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Kudos [?]: 162 [0], given: 10

Location: Pakistan
GMAT 1: 720 Q49 V40
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WE: Business Development (Internet and New Media)
Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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27 Dec 2011, 03:44
tuanquang269 wrote:
OA is D

This is the explanation of testluv from BTG
Quote:
In abstract, the argument can be looked at like this.

The first sentence: "When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs."

if action X is not taken, then result Y will not follow. People think that the prediction (no Y) is correct when action X is taken and the result (Y) follows.

In other words, people think that the statement "No X, then No Y" is verified when both X and Y occur. The author's point is that Y's occurence can be due to things other than X (thier simulatenous occurence establishes a mere correlation but not necessarily a causal relationship).

Choices B and C are both outside the scope.

Choice B discusses the SELECTION of action--this is outside the scope as the argument is not at all about WHICH action to take.

Choice C discusses the GOODNESS of a predictive strategy--this is really outside the scope as the argument is not about good vs bad strategies.

If choice D is true--if it is impossible to tell apart a correct prediction/effective action from an incorrect prediction/ineffective action, then it makes more likely the idea that a "result admits of more than one interpretation."

http://www.beatthegmat.com/people-s-pre ... 51038.html

The original answer cannot be D. It has to be B. In simple words the argument tells us that Result B cannot happen without Action A. Where as the Result B can be the result of some other action and does not necessarily ensure that Action A was the reason for this. So When we want a particular result we should weigh in different Actions, C, D, E rather than just A and then decide which action to take. Now look at statement B in hindsight of this explanation and it will appear as the only solution which follows the same lines.

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"Nowadays, people know the price of everything, and the value of nothing." Oscar Wilde

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Manager
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Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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27 Dec 2011, 03:49
D is so out of scope!!!
_________________

"Nowadays, people know the price of everything, and the value of nothing." Oscar Wilde

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Manager
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Kudos [?]: 162 [0], given: 10

Location: Pakistan
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Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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27 Dec 2011, 04:01
My Bad......... D is correct.. Sorry for the incorrect posts guys. The original answer is correct.. This really is a tough one...
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Manager
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Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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27 Dec 2011, 19:34
It should be D

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When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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28 Aug 2014, 09:13
When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.

Obviously, it is a tough nut to crack,

The passage is talking about judging success of a prediction and the conclusion is about there is more than one way to arrive at the success. Think of this as "success is goal of someone. He can arrive at this through different ways. Key word is " a prediction can be arrived at from different ways"

Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action. My CR mantra. Hold onto conclusion as a monkey holds to its younger one. Conclusion is about success of a prediction. This option is about action to be taken to arrive at the result. Out of scope.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations. - Passage stops at whether the prediction is successful or not. What happens after is out of syllabus
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials. -- It says if an prediction strategy is to determined whether it is good or bad, then we have to use that strategy 100 times. Assumption must be true. Applying negation test, the strategy need not be applied so many times to arrive at conclusion ----> Does it support conclusion --> Your prediction can't be good or bad but there are different ways to reach this. No impact. Hence this is not assumption. When in doubt for assumption/strengthen apply negation test
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible. correct purely by POE. Anything else takes lot of time.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.

Simple context of prediction is out of scope

Passage is about validity of prediction

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Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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19 Feb 2016, 11:16
" on reflection it becomes clear that the results admits of more than one interpretation"
So we need multiple results to have a proper interpretation.

The OA is C.

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Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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29 Aug 2016, 05:08
Hello from the GMAT Club VerbalBot!

Thanks to another GMAT Club member, I have just discovered this valuable topic, yet it had no discussion for over a year. I am now bumping it up - doing my job. I think you may find it valuable (esp those replies with Kudos).

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Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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16 Jul 2017, 10:27
Merged topics. Please, search before posting questions!
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Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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03 Sep 2017, 05:09
Hello VERBAL EXPERTS,
Could someone explain this one in detail?
Thanks.

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Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place   [#permalink] 03 Sep 2017, 05:09

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