When people predict that certain result will not take place : GMAT Critical Reasoning (CR)
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# When people predict that certain result will not take place

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When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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31 Jan 2010, 12:13
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When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action
is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when
the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes
clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing
about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the
result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect
prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context
of that prediction.
[Reveal] Spoiler:
D

Source :LSAT Material
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Last edited by mojorising800 on 01 Feb 2010, 08:08, edited 1 time in total.
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31 Jan 2010, 12:28
mojorising800 wrote:
When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action
is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when
the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes
clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing
about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the
result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect
prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context
of that prediction.

Would go with E.....

CN = the result of the action admits of more than one interpretation...
Only E supports this conclusion!
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01 Feb 2010, 07:32
My answer is C. The predictive strategy can be deemed good if the desired result is seen after several trials.

This is a tough one though, what is the source?
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01 Feb 2010, 08:15
I was stuck btw C and E too, but will go with "E" because, let's take it reverse from q/stem an action is correct when prediction is correct.

therefore, we have to make sure the facts about the context of that prediction will make an action success.
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01 Feb 2010, 08:16
no way.. the OA is.....8-(. somebody pls explain
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01 Feb 2010, 09:17
I gotta be honest, the more I see of these LSAT CRs the less like GMAT CRs they seem.
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02 Feb 2010, 03:42
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02 Feb 2010, 07:14
D
Got it right. But definitely a yucky one ....

B C and E: all of them consider "knowing" as a factor to be able to predict something, to a varying degree. They basically imply that some kind of prediction is possible from enough 'knowing'.
A: judging not covered in the argument. Abit of a stretch there.

D is talking about something unpredictable, something uknown; the passage conveys a similar sense.
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When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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28 Aug 2014, 08:13
When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.

Obviously, it is a tough nut to crack,

The passage is talking about judging success of a prediction and the conclusion is about there is more than one way to arrive at the success. Think of this as "success is goal of someone. He can arrive at this through different ways. Key word is " a prediction can be arrived at from different ways"

Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action. My CR mantra. Hold onto conclusion as a monkey holds to its younger one. Conclusion is about success of a prediction. This option is about action to be taken to arrive at the result. Out of scope.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations. - Passage stops at whether the prediction is successful or not. What happens after is out of syllabus
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials. -- It says if an prediction strategy is to determined whether it is good or bad, then we have to use that strategy 100 times. Assumption must be true. Applying negation test, the strategy need not be applied so many times to arrive at conclusion ----> Does it support conclusion --> Your prediction can't be good or bad but there are different ways to reach this. No impact. Hence this is not assumption. When in doubt for assumption/strengthen apply negation test
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible. correct purely by POE. Anything else takes lot of time.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.

Simple context of prediction is out of scope

Passage is about validity of prediction
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Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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19 Feb 2016, 10:16
" on reflection it becomes clear that the results admits of more than one interpretation"
So we need multiple results to have a proper interpretation.

The OA is C.
Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place   [#permalink] 19 Feb 2016, 10:16
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