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When people predict that certain result will not take place

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When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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New post 23 Jul 2009, 03:01
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When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.


Found this one interesting, I got it right but will like to see others logic behind it as well. Please explain the reasoning.
Thanks,

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Re: CR question [#permalink]

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New post 23 Jul 2009, 06:06
nitishmahajan wrote:
When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action. MAYBE - IF EVERYONE SET GOALS THEN THE RESULT FROM CERTAIN ACTION COULD BE DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON THE GOAL BUT STILL SUCCESSFUL WHEN MET.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations. ABOUT RESULTS NOT ACTIONS
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials. NOT TALKING ABOUT STRATEGIES
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible. OUT OF SCOPE AND DOESNT SUPPORT
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction. NOT ABOUT PREDICTION BUT ABOUT RESULTS


Found this one interesting, I got it right but will like to see others logic behind it as well. Please explain the reasoning.
Thanks,


I think A because the other 4 seems to be either out of scope or just about prediction but not about the results. the question is about different interpretation of results like "I got a good grade" which from A could mean that diff. people set their own goals for "I got a good grade" and it could be 100,90, passing etc.
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When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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New post 31 Jan 2010, 13:13
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When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action
is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when
the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes
clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing
about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the
result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect
prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context
of that prediction.
[Reveal] Spoiler:
D


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Last edited by mojorising800 on 01 Feb 2010, 09:08, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Torugh CR [#permalink]

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New post 31 Jan 2010, 13:28
mojorising800 wrote:
When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action
is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when
the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes
clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing
about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the
result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect
prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context
of that prediction.



Would go with E.....

CN = the result of the action admits of more than one interpretation...
Only E supports this conclusion!
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Re: Torugh CR [#permalink]

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New post 01 Feb 2010, 08:32
My answer is C. The predictive strategy can be deemed good if the desired result is seen after several trials.

This is a tough one though, what is the source?

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Re: Torugh CR [#permalink]

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New post 01 Feb 2010, 09:15
I was stuck btw C and E too, but will go with "E" because, let's take it reverse from q/stem an action is correct when prediction is correct.

therefore, we have to make sure the facts about the context of that prediction will make an action success.

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Re: Torugh CR [#permalink]

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New post 01 Feb 2010, 09:16
no way.. the OA is.....8-(. somebody pls explain :?: :shock:

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Re: Torugh CR [#permalink]

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New post 01 Feb 2010, 10:17
I gotta be honest, the more I see of these LSAT CRs the less like GMAT CRs they seem.

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Re: Torugh CR [#permalink]

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New post 02 Feb 2010, 04:42
Egads! This one was confusing.

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Re: Torugh CR [#permalink]

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New post 02 Feb 2010, 08:14
D
Got it right. But definitely a yucky one ....

B C and E: all of them consider "knowing" as a factor to be able to predict something, to a varying degree. They basically imply that some kind of prediction is possible from enough 'knowing'.
A: judging not covered in the argument. Abit of a stretch there.

D is talking about something unpredictable, something uknown; the passage conveys a similar sense.

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Re: CR question [#permalink]

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New post 03 Jun 2010, 23:48
IMO B.

(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
[Opposite answer to the conclusion. Incorrect]

(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.

(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
[Strategy and several trials are new info but dont help the conclusion. Incorrect]

(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
[This looks tempting because of the part ...people believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct..., but the extreme language makes me rule this out. Incorrect]

(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.
[No mention of Context. Incorrect]

Whats the OA and OE?
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Re: CR question [#permalink]

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New post 04 Jun 2010, 00:03
It should be D.
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Re: CR question [#permalink]

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New post 04 Jun 2010, 00:16
Can you explain why D?

nsp007 wrote:
It should be D.

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Re: CR question [#permalink]

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New post 07 Jun 2010, 10:47
B for me.

I ruled out D for the extreme language.

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Re: CR question [#permalink]

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New post 06 Nov 2011, 05:46
shaselai wrote:
nitishmahajan wrote:
When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action. MAYBE - IF EVERYONE SET GOALS THEN THE RESULT FROM CERTAIN ACTION COULD BE DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON THE GOAL BUT STILL SUCCESSFUL WHEN MET.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations. ABOUT RESULTS NOT ACTIONS
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials. NOT TALKING ABOUT STRATEGIES
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible. OUT OF SCOPE AND DOESNT SUPPORT
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction. NOT ABOUT PREDICTION BUT ABOUT RESULTS


Found this one interesting, I got it right but will like to see others logic behind it as well. Please explain the reasoning.
Thanks,


I think A because the other 4 seems to be either out of scope or just about prediction but not about the results. the question is about different interpretation of results like "I got a good grade" which from A could mean that diff. people set their own goals for "I got a good grade" and it could be 100,90, passing etc.


Hi,
I see this to be A too.
Since, interpretations differ only when the goals of actions are different and thereby, predictions of actions. However, OA looks like D, and I don know why.
D does sound understandably factual, but distinguishing correct and incorrect predictions/actions is subjective according to the given statements and therefore interpretations vary. Hence, D cannot strengthen because, it deals with a special scenario of only miscuing right predictions to be wrong/vice-versa.
It says, distinguishing is impossible, fine. So...? How does it directly account for several interpretations. D is trying to argue in favor of a few predictions and against few others. But, premise seems to be generic and says only ideas/goals differ.

Pls enlighten!
Thanks!

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Re: CR question [#permalink]

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New post 07 Nov 2011, 03:48
B fo me...
D is tempting but yes I rejected because of extrem language. ...

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New post 07 Nov 2011, 08:43
i went with d.

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Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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New post 08 Nov 2011, 03:54
I go with B. Anyone know the OA?

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Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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New post 13 Dec 2011, 05:52
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OA is D

This is the explanation of testluv from BTG
Quote:
In abstract, the argument can be looked at like this.

The first sentence: "When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs."

if action X is not taken, then result Y will not follow. People think that the prediction (no Y) is correct when action X is taken and the result (Y) follows.

In other words, people think that the statement "No X, then No Y" is verified when both X and Y occur. The author's point is that Y's occurence can be due to things other than X (thier simulatenous occurence establishes a mere correlation but not necessarily a causal relationship).

Choices B and C are both outside the scope.

Choice B discusses the SELECTION of action--this is outside the scope as the argument is not at all about WHICH action to take.

Choice C discusses the GOODNESS of a predictive strategy--this is really outside the scope as the argument is not about good vs bad strategies.

If choice D is true--if it is impossible to tell apart a correct prediction/effective action from an incorrect prediction/ineffective action, then it makes more likely the idea that a "result admits of more than one interpretation."

http://www.beatthegmat.com/people-s-pre ... 51038.html

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Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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New post 13 Dec 2011, 17:06
tuanquang269 wrote:
OA is D

This is the explanation of testluv from BTG
Quote:
In abstract, the argument can be looked at like this.

The first sentence: "When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs."

if action X is not taken, then result Y will not follow. People think that the prediction (no Y) is correct when action X is taken and the result (Y) follows.

In other words, people think that the statement "No X, then No Y" is verified when both X and Y occur. The author's point is that Y's occurence can be due to things other than X (thier simulatenous occurence establishes a mere correlation but not necessarily a causal relationship).

Choices B and C are both outside the scope.

Choice B discusses the SELECTION of action--this is outside the scope as the argument is not at all about WHICH action to take.

Choice C discusses the GOODNESS of a predictive strategy--this is really outside the scope as the argument is not about good vs bad strategies.

If choice D is true--if it is impossible to tell apart a correct prediction/effective action from an incorrect prediction/ineffective action, then it makes more likely the idea that a "result admits of more than one interpretation."

http://www.beatthegmat.com/people-s-pre ... 51038.html



Yes, I very much feel A, and the rest are OOS.
D it is.
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Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place   [#permalink] 13 Dec 2011, 17:06

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