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# When people predict that certain result will not take place

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When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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23 Jul 2009, 03:01
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When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.

Found this one interesting, I got it right but will like to see others logic behind it as well. Please explain the reasoning.
Thanks,
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Re: CR question [#permalink]

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23 Jul 2009, 06:06
nitishmahajan wrote:
When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action. MAYBE - IF EVERYONE SET GOALS THEN THE RESULT FROM CERTAIN ACTION COULD BE DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON THE GOAL BUT STILL SUCCESSFUL WHEN MET.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations. ABOUT RESULTS NOT ACTIONS
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials. NOT TALKING ABOUT STRATEGIES
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible. OUT OF SCOPE AND DOESNT SUPPORT
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction. NOT ABOUT PREDICTION BUT ABOUT RESULTS

Found this one interesting, I got it right but will like to see others logic behind it as well. Please explain the reasoning.
Thanks,

I think A because the other 4 seems to be either out of scope or just about prediction but not about the results. the question is about different interpretation of results like "I got a good grade" which from A could mean that diff. people set their own goals for "I got a good grade" and it could be 100,90, passing etc.
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When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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Updated on: 01 Feb 2010, 09:08
1
When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action
is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when
the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes
clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing
about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the
result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect
prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context
of that prediction.

Source :LSAT Material
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Originally posted by mojorising800 on 31 Jan 2010, 13:13.
Last edited by mojorising800 on 01 Feb 2010, 09:08, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Torugh CR [#permalink]

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31 Jan 2010, 13:28
mojorising800 wrote:
When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action
is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when
the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes
clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing
about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the
result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect
prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context
of that prediction.

Would go with E.....

CN = the result of the action admits of more than one interpretation...
Only E supports this conclusion!
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Re: Torugh CR [#permalink]

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01 Feb 2010, 08:32
My answer is C. The predictive strategy can be deemed good if the desired result is seen after several trials.

This is a tough one though, what is the source?
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Re: Torugh CR [#permalink]

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01 Feb 2010, 09:15
I was stuck btw C and E too, but will go with "E" because, let's take it reverse from q/stem an action is correct when prediction is correct.

therefore, we have to make sure the facts about the context of that prediction will make an action success.
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Re: Torugh CR [#permalink]

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01 Feb 2010, 09:16
no way.. the OA is.....8-(. somebody pls explain
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Re: Torugh CR [#permalink]

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01 Feb 2010, 10:17
I gotta be honest, the more I see of these LSAT CRs the less like GMAT CRs they seem.
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Re: Torugh CR [#permalink]

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02 Feb 2010, 04:42
Egads! This one was confusing.
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Re: Torugh CR [#permalink]

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02 Feb 2010, 08:14
D
Got it right. But definitely a yucky one ....

B C and E: all of them consider "knowing" as a factor to be able to predict something, to a varying degree. They basically imply that some kind of prediction is possible from enough 'knowing'.
A: judging not covered in the argument. Abit of a stretch there.

D is talking about something unpredictable, something uknown; the passage conveys a similar sense.
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Re: CR question [#permalink]

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03 Jun 2010, 23:48
IMO B.

(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
[Opposite answer to the conclusion. Incorrect]

(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.

(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
[Strategy and several trials are new info but dont help the conclusion. Incorrect]

(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
[This looks tempting because of the part ...people believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct..., but the extreme language makes me rule this out. Incorrect]

(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.
[No mention of Context. Incorrect]

Whats the OA and OE?
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Re: CR question [#permalink]

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07 Jun 2010, 10:47
B for me.

I ruled out D for the extreme language.
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Re: CR question [#permalink]

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06 Nov 2011, 05:46
shaselai wrote:
nitishmahajan wrote:
When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action. MAYBE - IF EVERYONE SET GOALS THEN THE RESULT FROM CERTAIN ACTION COULD BE DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON THE GOAL BUT STILL SUCCESSFUL WHEN MET.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations. ABOUT RESULTS NOT ACTIONS
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials. NOT TALKING ABOUT STRATEGIES
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible. OUT OF SCOPE AND DOESNT SUPPORT
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction. NOT ABOUT PREDICTION BUT ABOUT RESULTS

Found this one interesting, I got it right but will like to see others logic behind it as well. Please explain the reasoning.
Thanks,

I think A because the other 4 seems to be either out of scope or just about prediction but not about the results. the question is about different interpretation of results like "I got a good grade" which from A could mean that diff. people set their own goals for "I got a good grade" and it could be 100,90, passing etc.

Hi,
I see this to be A too.
Since, interpretations differ only when the goals of actions are different and thereby, predictions of actions. However, OA looks like D, and I don know why.
D does sound understandably factual, but distinguishing correct and incorrect predictions/actions is subjective according to the given statements and therefore interpretations vary. Hence, D cannot strengthen because, it deals with a special scenario of only miscuing right predictions to be wrong/vice-versa.
It says, distinguishing is impossible, fine. So...? How does it directly account for several interpretations. D is trying to argue in favor of a few predictions and against few others. But, premise seems to be generic and says only ideas/goals differ.

Pls enlighten!
Thanks!
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Re: CR question [#permalink]

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07 Nov 2011, 03:48
B fo me...
D is tempting but yes I rejected because of extrem language. ...
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Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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13 Dec 2011, 05:52
1
OA is D

This is the explanation of testluv from BTG
Quote:
In abstract, the argument can be looked at like this.

The first sentence: "When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs."

if action X is not taken, then result Y will not follow. People think that the prediction (no Y) is correct when action X is taken and the result (Y) follows.

In other words, people think that the statement "No X, then No Y" is verified when both X and Y occur. The author's point is that Y's occurence can be due to things other than X (thier simulatenous occurence establishes a mere correlation but not necessarily a causal relationship).

Choices B and C are both outside the scope.

Choice B discusses the SELECTION of action--this is outside the scope as the argument is not at all about WHICH action to take.

Choice C discusses the GOODNESS of a predictive strategy--this is really outside the scope as the argument is not about good vs bad strategies.

If choice D is true--if it is impossible to tell apart a correct prediction/effective action from an incorrect prediction/ineffective action, then it makes more likely the idea that a "result admits of more than one interpretation."

http://www.beatthegmat.com/people-s-pre ... 51038.html

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Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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13 Dec 2011, 17:06
tuanquang269 wrote:
OA is D

This is the explanation of testluv from BTG
Quote:
In abstract, the argument can be looked at like this.

The first sentence: "When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs."

if action X is not taken, then result Y will not follow. People think that the prediction (no Y) is correct when action X is taken and the result (Y) follows.

In other words, people think that the statement "No X, then No Y" is verified when both X and Y occur. The author's point is that Y's occurence can be due to things other than X (thier simulatenous occurence establishes a mere correlation but not necessarily a causal relationship).

Choices B and C are both outside the scope.

Choice B discusses the SELECTION of action--this is outside the scope as the argument is not at all about WHICH action to take.

Choice C discusses the GOODNESS of a predictive strategy--this is really outside the scope as the argument is not about good vs bad strategies.

If choice D is true--if it is impossible to tell apart a correct prediction/effective action from an incorrect prediction/ineffective action, then it makes more likely the idea that a "result admits of more than one interpretation."

http://www.beatthegmat.com/people-s-pre ... 51038.html

Yes, I very much feel A, and the rest are OOS.
D it is.
Thanks!
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Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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26 Dec 2011, 23:07
--If people predict X then Y and Y happens then their prediction is valid
--But in reality for Y to happen there might be other conditions then X, or there might be other conditions that go along with X to make the result Y
or there might be no way to distinguish this.

(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
-- we cant specify the goal, goal is to be reached.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
-- out of scope,
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
-- nothing mentioned about trials, so out of scope
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
-- Correct
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.
-- out of scope
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Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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27 Dec 2011, 03:44
tuanquang269 wrote:
OA is D

This is the explanation of testluv from BTG
Quote:
In abstract, the argument can be looked at like this.

The first sentence: "When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs."

if action X is not taken, then result Y will not follow. People think that the prediction (no Y) is correct when action X is taken and the result (Y) follows.

In other words, people think that the statement "No X, then No Y" is verified when both X and Y occur. The author's point is that Y's occurence can be due to things other than X (thier simulatenous occurence establishes a mere correlation but not necessarily a causal relationship).

Choices B and C are both outside the scope.

Choice B discusses the SELECTION of action--this is outside the scope as the argument is not at all about WHICH action to take.

Choice C discusses the GOODNESS of a predictive strategy--this is really outside the scope as the argument is not about good vs bad strategies.

If choice D is true--if it is impossible to tell apart a correct prediction/effective action from an incorrect prediction/ineffective action, then it makes more likely the idea that a "result admits of more than one interpretation."

http://www.beatthegmat.com/people-s-pre ... 51038.html

The original answer cannot be D. It has to be B. In simple words the argument tells us that Result B cannot happen without Action A. Where as the Result B can be the result of some other action and does not necessarily ensure that Action A was the reason for this. So When we want a particular result we should weigh in different Actions, C, D, E rather than just A and then decide which action to take. Now look at statement B in hindsight of this explanation and it will appear as the only solution which follows the same lines.

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Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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27 Dec 2011, 04:01
My Bad......... D is correct.. Sorry for the incorrect posts guys. The original answer is correct.. This really is a tough one...
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When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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28 Aug 2014, 09:13
When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.

Obviously, it is a tough nut to crack,

The passage is talking about judging success of a prediction and the conclusion is about there is more than one way to arrive at the success. Think of this as "success is goal of someone. He can arrive at this through different ways. Key word is " a prediction can be arrived at from different ways"

Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action. My CR mantra. Hold onto conclusion as a monkey holds to its younger one. Conclusion is about success of a prediction. This option is about action to be taken to arrive at the result. Out of scope.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations. - Passage stops at whether the prediction is successful or not. What happens after is out of syllabus
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials. -- It says if an prediction strategy is to determined whether it is good or bad, then we have to use that strategy 100 times. Assumption must be true. Applying negation test, the strategy need not be applied so many times to arrive at conclusion ----> Does it support conclusion --> Your prediction can't be good or bad but there are different ways to reach this. No impact. Hence this is not assumption. When in doubt for assumption/strengthen apply negation test
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible. correct purely by POE. Anything else takes lot of time.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.

Simple context of prediction is out of scope

Passage is about validity of prediction
When people predict that certain result will not take place   [#permalink] 28 Aug 2014, 09:13

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