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Wild cheetahs live in the African grasslands. Previous

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Wild cheetahs live in the African grasslands. Previous [#permalink]

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Wild cheetahs live in the African grasslands. Previous estimates of the size that the wild cheetah population must be in order for these animals to survive a natural disaster in the African grasslands region were too small, and the current population barely meets the previous estimates. At present, however, there is not enough African grassland to support a wild cheetah population larger than the current population.
The statements above, if true, most strongly support which one of the following conclusions?
(A) Previous estimates of the size of the existing wild cheetah population were inaccurate.
(B) The cheetah’s natural habitat is decreasing in size at a faster rate than is the size of the wild cheetah population.
(C) The principal threat to the endangered wild cheetah population is neither pollution nor hunting, but a natural disaster.
(D) In the short term, the wild cheetah population will be incapable of surviving a natural disaster in the African grasslands.
(E) In regions where land is suitable for cheetah habitation, more natural disasters are expected to occur during the next decade than occurred during the past decade.
[Reveal] Spoiler: OA

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Wild cheetahs live in the African grasslands. Previous [#permalink]

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Wild cheetahs live in the African grasslands. Previous estimates of the size that the wild cheetah population must be in order for these animals to survive a natural disaster in the African grasslands region were too small, and the current population barely meets the previous estimates, At present, however, there is not enough African grassland to support a wild cheetah population larger than the current population.

The statements above, if true, most strongly support which one of the following conclusions?

(A) Previous estimates of the size of the existing wild cheetah population were inaccurate.
(B) The cheetah's natural habitat is decreasing in size at a faster rate than is the size of the wild cheetah population.
(C) The principal threat to the endangered wild cheetah population is neither pollution nor hunting, but a natural disaster.
(D) In the short term, the wild cheetah population will be incapable of surviving a natural disaster in the African grasslands.
(E) In regions where land is suitable for cheetah habitation, more natural disasters are expected to occur during the next decade than occurred during the past decade.

Please comment your reasons while giving answer options. I will come back with OA once I get some correct reasoning flowing in.
Also, let me know which kind of question type this question is...
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Last edited by dentobizz on 07 Nov 2013, 19:27, edited 3 times in total.
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Wild cheetahs live in the African grasslands [#permalink]

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supergrad wrote:
if D is the answer can someone please explain how the passage supports the claim that the size of grassland and cheetah population is not increasing, the passage doesn't give any information on the trend


Hi supergrad.

I'm glad to help.

THEORIES:
Conclusion question.
Correct answer:
Must pass the “Fact test”. Do not infer too far, just stick to premises.
Must show the main point, not just repeat the premises.
Wrong answers:
Pass the fact test, but only rephrase the premises (repeat one, two premises or combination of premises)
Out of scope or infer too far (not pass the fact test).

STIMULUS:
Fact 1: Wild cheetahs live in the African grasslands. Necessary condition.
Fact 2: Previous estimates of the size that the wild cheetah population must be in order for these animals to survive a natural disaster in the African grasslands region were too small. FACT
Fact 3: The current population barely meets the previous estimates. FACT
Fact 4: At present there is not enough African grassland to support a wild cheetah population larger than the current population. --> Necessary condition is not met.

ANALYZE THE STIMULUS:
Fact 2 means previous cheetah population needed to survive a natural disaster was too small.
Fact 3 means the current cheetah population is even smaller that that in the past. It means the current cheetah population is not enough to survive a natural disaster.
Fact 4 means the current cheetah population can’t become larger because there is not enough African grassland. Fact 4 clearly states that the cheetah population is not increasing, at least in the short term.

Combine fact 2, 3, 4 we can say that in the short term, the wild cheetah population will be incapable of surviving a natural disaster in the African grasslands.

Thus, D is correct.

Hope it’s clear.
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Re: Wild cheetahs live in the African grasslands. Previous [#permalink]

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joshnsit wrote:
Wild cheetahs live in the African grasslands. Previous estimates of the size that the wild cheetah population must be in order for these animals to survive a natural disaster in the African grasslands region were too small, and the current population barely meets the previous estimates, At present, however, there is not enough African grassland to support a wild cheetah population larger than the current population.
The statements above, if true, most strongly support which one of the following conclusions?
(A) Previous estimates of the size of the existing wild cheetah population were inaccurate.
(B) The cheetah's natural habitat is decreasing in size at a faster rate than is the size of the wild cheetah population.
(C) The principal threat to the endangered wild cheetah population is neither pollution nor hunting, but a natural disaster.
(D) In the short term, the wild cheetah population will be incapable of surviving a natural disaster in the African grasslands.
(E) In regions where land is suitable for cheetah habitation, more natural disasters are expected to occur during the next decade than occurred during the past decade.

Please comment your reasons while giving answer options. I will come back with OA once I get some correct reasoning flowing in.
Also, let me know which kind of question type this question is...


You should try to think ahead of what you are expecting from your answer option.

Look at the argument:
Previous estimates of 'cheetah population required to survive a natural disaster' were too small. (e.g. Previous estimate - if there are 100 cheetahs, they can survive a natural disaster. This estimate is too small. You perhaps need at least 200 to survive a natural disaster)
The current population barely meets the previous estimates. (The current pop is barely 100)
At present there is not enough African grassland to support a wild cheetah population larger than the current population. (So the population can't increase in the short term)

What can you say from this? What does this lead to?

That in the short term, if there is a natural disaster, the cheetahs probably will not survive it. (Option D)

(A) Previous estimates of the size of the existing wild cheetah population were inaccurate.
No. Previous estimates of 'cheetah population required to survive a natural disaster' were inaccurate. Not the estimates of current cheetah population.

(B) The cheetah's natural habitat is decreasing in size at a faster rate than is the size of the wild cheetah population.
The argument doesn't say that the natural habitat is decreasing. It only says that at present, it cannot increase. The rate of increase/decrease is anyway out of question.
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Wild cheetahs live in the African grasslands [#permalink]

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Wild cheetahs live in the African grasslands. Previous estimates of the size that the wild cheetah population must be in order for these animals to survive a natural disaster in the African grasslands region were too small, and the current population barely meets the previous estimates, At present, however, there is not enough African grassland to support a wild cheetah population larger than the current population.

The statements above, if true, most strongly support which one of the following conclusions?

(A) Previous estimates of the size of the existing wild cheetah population were inaccurate.
(B) The cheetah's natural habitat is decreasing in size at a faster rate than is the size of the wild cheetah population.
(C) The principal threat to the endangered wild cheetah population is neither pollution nor hunting, but a natural disaster.
(D) In the short term, the wild cheetah population will be incapable of surviving a natural disaster in the African grasslands.
(E) In regions where land is suitable for cheetah habitation, more natural disasters are expected to occur during the next decade than occurred during the past decade.
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Re: Wild cheetahs live in the African grasslands. Previous [#permalink]

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It not an easy task to get to the right conclusion here, thanks to the wordy premises ;)
Facts and premises are explained well in above post. I will go for an example case :)

from the 1st statement it is clear that though Cheetahs population was less, the grassland area was good enough,if not great.

Case1; in 10 sqkm area there are 20 cheetahs. Natural disaster-->very low chances that many cheetahs getting effected, but still the effect is huge as population is less.

Case2: Huge reduction in grassland area: 5 sqkm existing. Chettahs-16 (less than earlier 20)
But here if natural disaster occurs, more cheetahs will get affected as they are confined in less area to save their lives. and at the same time more cheetah's are influenced by the disaster coz of limitations.

So I went with D as it brings out this case :)

If it is not clear, plz let me know, i will try up presenting in a better way.

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mahendru1992 wrote:
AllenEMPOWERgmat wrote:

Hi mahendru1992,

I think you may have mis-read. The fact was that he ran AT LEAST 10 miles. If he ran at least 10 miles, do we know that he ran at least 1? Of course. See the distinction?

Hi, sorry for troubling you, but I don't get it.
Okay, so what you mean is that if in the short term we know that the cheetah population wouldn't survive, then it's obvious that we know that the population wouldn't survive today per se. Am I right?
But what I'm trying to say is that the argument says that today we know that the population wouldn't survive a natural disaster but we don't know anything about the future, even if it's a short one. I mean what if some restoration process occurs which helps in increasing the population or what if they bring other cheetahs from other countries or reserves. This doesn't make sense for a short term, but i'm sure there are other 'what ifs' that do qualify. Don't you think we're assuming too much?
Thanks for bearing with me


Hi mahendru1992,

No trouble at all. Let's lay out all of the facts once more, and you'll see how this goes beyond JUST the present moment:

Previous estimates of the cheetah to survive a natural disaster in the African grasslands region were too small. That means we know the number needs to be bigger.
The current population barely meets the previous estimates. That means that the current population is WAY below what it needs to survive if it doesn't meet the previous estimates which were already too low.
At present, there is not enough African grassland to support a wild cheetah population larger than the current population. This tells us that there is not even enough grassland to support a population any bigger than it is today.

Given those facts, is there any way the wild cheetah could survive a natural disaster of the short-term (say the next few months, maybe even a year?). No way. That's why D has to be right.

I think that the source of your doubt has to do with your definition of short-term. If you were thinking of it as something on the order of say 2-5 years, then, you're right, we can't infer that.
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Re: Wild cheetahs live in the African grasslands [#permalink]

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pate13 wrote:
tuanquang269 wrote:
This is my new project: Renew Old Thread => Back to basic => Just try It and give your reasoning
The topic will be sticky for 2 days from starting


Wild cheetahs live in the African grasslands. Previous estimates of the size that the wild cheetah population must be in order for these animals to survive a natural disaster in the African grasslands region were too small, and the current population barely meets the previous estimates, At present, however, there is not enough African grassland to support a wild cheetah population larger than the current population.

The statements above, if true, most strongly support which one of the following conclusions?

(A) Previous estimates of the size of the existing wild cheetah population were inaccurate.
(B) The cheetah's natural habitat is decreasing in size at a faster rate than is the size of the wild cheetah population.
(C) The principal threat to the endangered wild cheetah population is neither pollution nor hunting, but a natural disaster.
(D) In the short term, the wild cheetah population will be incapable of surviving a natural disaster in the African grasslands.
(E) In regions where land is suitable for cheetah habitation, more natural disasters are expected to occur during the next decade than occurred during the past decade.



While I understand what this question is trying to say, and I answered it correctly, I think this is a poor question. Is it really true that the population would be INCAPABLE of surviving a natural disaster? Even if there is a .000001% chance of the population surviving, it still isn't incapable of surviving. Absolute language on CR questions is usually a major indicator that an answer choice is wrong. I think D would be a lot better stated, and more accurate, if it said "In the short term, the wild cheetah population would probably not survive a natural disaster in the African grasslands."


You are correct that the answer for these "draw a conclusion" questions will often be weak or trivial, but that is not a requirement. The real standard is to stay close to the precise wording of the argument and avoid answer choices that are STRONGER than the premises of the argument.

If you look at the premises here, you will find very strong language throughout: "size...must be...to survive", "too small", "not enough". These are very definitive statements and the answer choice isn't stronger than those premises.

That said, I agree that on the GMAT you would probably see a bit softer language, similar to what you have suggested. A good example of this is #103 - the Patria trade embargo question. The correct answer states: "Any trade embargo against Patria would be likely to fail at some time." Instead of absolute language like "will fail" the GMAT used "would be likely to fail".

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New post 19 Jul 2010, 18:08
noboru wrote:
Wild cheetahs live in the African grasslands. Previous estimates of the size that the wild cheetah population must be in order for these animals to survive a natural disaster in the African grasslands region were too small, and the current population barely meets the previous estimates. At present, however, there is not enough African grassland to support a wild cheetah population larger than the current population.
The statements above, if true, most strongly support which one of the following conclusions?
(A) Previous estimates of the size of the existing wild cheetah population were inaccurate.
(B) The cheetah’s natural habitat is decreasing in size at a faster rate than is the size of the wild cheetah population.
(C) The principal threat to the endangered wild cheetah population is neither pollution nor hunting, but a natural disaster.
(D) In the short term, the wild cheetah population will be incapable of surviving a natural disaster in the African grasslands.
(E) In regions where land is suitable for cheetah habitation, more natural disasters are expected to occur during the next decade than occurred during the past decade.


Premise -1) Previous estimates of the size that the wild cheetah population must be in order for these animals to survive a natural disaster in the African grasslands region were too small
2) Current estimate of size is smaller than previous estimates.
3) If the current size grows, the african natural habitat would not be able to support it.

Now, we need to find the conclusion to these premises based on the info provided. Lets go over the options

A. Previous estimates of the size of the existing wild cheetah population were inaccurate. - This stmt does not serve as the conclusion to the above premises as we are talking about the current size of the wild cheetah population and their survival.
B. The cheetah’s natural habitat is decreasing in size at a faster rate than is the size of the wild cheetah population. Even though the passage suggests that the natural habitat may not be able to support an increase in the current population, it does not mean that the habitat is decreasing, that too at a faster rate than the wild cheetah population size.
C. The principal threat to the endangered wild cheetah population is neither pollution nor hunting, but a natural disaster. The passage does mention natural disaster but nothing about pollution or hunting
D. In the short term, the wild cheetah population will be incapable of surviving a natural disaster in the African grasslands. If the previous size estimates were small enough to not escape a natural disaster, the current size would surely not survive - Correct answer
E. In regions where land is suitable for cheetah habitation, more natural disasters are expected to occur during the next decade than occurred during the past decade. Out of scope.

Hope it helps,
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New post 21 Jul 2010, 12:19
I did not pick the correct OA but I agree with D.

Lets say for example....

The estimates were that there should be a population of 20 wild cheetahs to survive a natural disaster.

The current population barely meets the estimates. Means the current population is no where close to 20 cheetahs....may be currently there are only 6 wild cheetahs as part of cheetah population.

That means in the short run the wild cheetah population will not be capable of surviving a natural disaster in the African grasslands.

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D

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New post 21 Jul 2010, 21:52
My answer is D :D

Argument:

They estimate that wild cheetah is abuot XX size to survive the natural disater.
Currently the size of WC is YY < XX.
Now, there is not enough grass to support the current YY Wild Cheetah.

A - No indication that the estimate is inaccurate

B - The rate of decreasing was not discussed

C - Hungting and pollution were not discussed - Out of scope

D - not enough food for YY => YY will still < XX => Wild cheetah will not survive natural disater -> CORRECT

E - Next decade and past decade were not discussed - Out of scope

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Re: Wild cheetahs [#permalink]

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New post 30 Jul 2010, 08:21
estimates of the size that the wild cheetah population must be in order for these animals to survive a natural disaster in the African grasslands region were too small

not enough African grassland to support a wild cheetah population larger than the current population. even more accurately reinforces this situatation

so D

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New post 02 Aug 2010, 22:41
very nice argument
straight D
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New post 06 May 2011, 03:45
not so straight but still D . took 2:18 min and had to use POE to eliminate options . only D could stand hence D .
'Previous estimates of the size that the wild cheetah population must be in order for these animals to survive a natural disaster in the African grasslands region were too small' ,

can some body explain what was too small here and why such stupid language was used ?
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New post 09 May 2011, 08:31
The answer is D.
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New post 10 May 2011, 02:34
Close call between B and D.

The population required to survive the natural disaster is small here.As the grasslands are not enough to support a lager population the Cheetah's are bound to be extinct if a natural disaster happens in short term.
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New post 17 Oct 2011, 11:54
Agree with D.
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Re: Wild cheetahs [#permalink]

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New post 17 Oct 2011, 14:30
My bad was thinking between C and D.......IMOD
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Re: Wild cheetahs   [#permalink] 17 Oct 2011, 14:30

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