Very interesting question but I think the answer is 3/8
Row 2 has two positions left and right so prob. of being in left = right = 1/2
Row 3 has three positions, probability of ending up in left = 1/4, in right = 1/4 and in middle = 1/4 + 1/4 = 1/2
Now for row 4 probabiity of ending up in cell 1 is 1/8, in cell 2 is 1/8 (note in this case it came in cell 2 afer being in positon on left on row 3)
if it goes in middle in row 3 first, prob of ending in cell 2 = 1/4, cell 3 = 1/4
if it goes right, prob of ending in cell 3 = 1/8, in cell 4 =1/8
Overall prob of ending in cell 2 = 3/8