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CEO
Joined: 17 May 2007
Posts: 2998
Followers: 48
Kudos [?]:
390
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So who's winning here [#permalink]
 03 Oct 2008, 16:57
The very first book I read about markets is that trading is a zero sum game. For every loser, there is a winner. So, my question is : who is winning in this crash ? Or to use a broader context, who won in this entire subprime business ?
Some of my own thoughts :
- Mortgage brokers and real estate agents (they thrive on sales and commissions, and there was plenty of it pre subprime)
- Large builders and developers who developed and sold these houses (and the rest of real estate industry as a flow on)
- Hedge funds who were short on subprime related entities (this was during the crash)
- Who else ?
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Director
Joined: 18 Dec 2007
Posts: 983
Location: Hong Kong
Concentration: Entrepreneurship, Technology
Schools: Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) - Class of 2010
Followers: 10
Kudos [?]:
129
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Re: So who's winning here [#permalink]
05 Oct 2008, 04:35
Employees and managers through their bonuses.
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Director
Joined: 20 Feb 2008
Posts: 797
Location: Texas
Schools: Kellogg Class of 2011
Followers: 4
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143
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Re: So who's winning here [#permalink]
05 Oct 2008, 13:21
'Trading' is a zero-sum game, but 'investing' is usally a positive-sum game since over the long-haul wealth is generally created and stocks go up. Those seeking Alpha are generally the losers in the market, or put simply, the people trying to beat the market. Some people can beat the market, but not over the long-term. Here's a good article about the difference between 'traders' and 'investors': http://www.247wallst.com/2007/03/why_trading_is_.html
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VP
Joined: 09 Jan 2007
Posts: 1046
Location: New York, NY
Schools: Chicago Booth Class of 2010
Followers: 9
Kudos [?]:
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Re: So who's winning here [#permalink]
05 Oct 2008, 17:10
jb32 wrote: Those seeking Alpha are generally the losers in the market, or put simply, the people trying to beat the market. Some people can beat the market, but not over the long-term. Tell this to Mr Buffet  ...
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Intern
Joined: 26 Jan 2008
Posts: 19
Followers: 1
Kudos [?]:
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Re: So who's winning here [#permalink]
08 Oct 2008, 09:31
who win after the US empire crash? I think it's future powers - China, Russia and India. They will be back on the top after a few centures behind last empires - Spanish empire, Osman empire, then British empire, the Austrian empire, then Soviet empire and then the American one. who will be the next? God knows.
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Senior Manager
Joined: 26 Mar 2008
Posts: 341
Location: Washington DC
Followers: 2
Kudos [?]:
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Re: So who's winning here [#permalink]
08 Oct 2008, 13:40
Though its complete meltdown but I guess wall street is going to bounce back..pretty soon, I hope!!
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Director
Joined: 20 Feb 2008
Posts: 797
Location: Texas
Schools: Kellogg Class of 2011
Followers: 4
Kudos [?]:
143
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Re: So who's winning here [#permalink]
08 Oct 2008, 17:49
edwarise wrote: who win after the US empire crash? I think it's future powers - China, Russia and India. They will be back on the top after a few centures behind last empires - Spanish empire, Osman empire, then British empire, the Austrian empire, then Soviet empire and then the American one. who will be the next? God knows. Their recession is coming next. Remember, just about every other country is dependent on the US as a market for their goods. As goes the US consumer, goes the manufacturing based economies around the world.
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Director
Joined: 18 Dec 2007
Posts: 983
Location: Hong Kong
Concentration: Entrepreneurship, Technology
Schools: Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) - Class of 2010
Followers: 10
Kudos [?]:
129
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Re: So who's winning here [#permalink]
08 Oct 2008, 20:15
Actually, domestic demand in China is increasing, which is offsetting reduced US demand. China is not as dependent on the USA as they were 5/6 years ago. Furthermore, there is no credit crises between Asian banks they are very well capitalised and liquid. The main issue there is that their stock prices were extremely overpriced, there PE ratios were far too high. The last few times the chinese market tanked (-70%, -60% and -70%) it rebounded by 5-600%.
According to some reports i`ve read (Analysts specialising in Asia), most are looking for it to rebound around the turn of the year to spring. Furthermore, the employment landscape in China is not too bad. The MNC`s may have forzen headcounts, but the local companies are still growing and expanding. If policy allows, i can envisage chinese companies doing what Indian companies have been doing and starting to acquire cheap companies.
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Manager
Joined: 11 Jan 2007
Posts: 202
Followers: 2
Kudos [?]:
29
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Re: So who's winning here [#permalink]
26 Nov 2008, 19:08
forget managers, ceo's and the rest of the funky bunch
I'm loosing now but hope to win on the future... (this market killed my postions)
provided that one gets a job, I think that a downturn is the place to start it. higher level of responsability and when things start to get better, hopefully quicker promotions...
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Re: So who's winning here
[#permalink]
26 Nov 2008, 19:08
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