Last year the rate of unemployment was 8.2 percent, but this year it

Question

Last year the rate of unemployment was 8.2 percent, but this year it has been 7 percent. We can conclude that unemployment is on a downward trend and the rate will be even lower next year.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the conclusion above?

A. The unemployment ﬁgures were computed on the basis of a representative sample of economic data rather than all of the available data.

B. This year a temporary government spending project depressed the unemployment rate by 0.8 percent.

C. Increases in hiring would cause companies to be more productive, netting them earnings that would allow them to hire yet further.

D. The 8.2 percent rate of unemployment last year represented a two-year high.

E. The unemployment rate is a measure only of those individuals without employment who are looking for jobs.

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bronaugust · Accepted Answer

To solve this question, let us deploy    IMS's four-step technique   .

STEP #1  ->   IDENTIFY THE QUESTION TYPE

To identify the question type, we must read the question stem. The stem states, 'Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the conclusion above?' Clearly, we are dealing with a weakening question.

Now that the question type is identified, let us proceed to the second step.

STEP #2  ->   DECONSTRUCT THE ARGUMENT

In a weakening question, it is a must to deconstruct the argument by figuring out the premise and the conclusion. Let us therefore now read the argument and deconstruct it.

CONCLUSION:   Unemployment is on a downward trend and the rate will be even lower next year.

PREMISE:   Last year the rate of unemployment was 8.2 percent, but this year it has been 7 percent.

Now that the argument is deconstructed, let us proceed to the third step.

STEP #3  ->   FRAME A SHADOW ANSWER

In a weakening question, the right answer must invalidate the conclusion drawn. An excellent way of doing so in the question we have would be to attack the author's reasoning by stating a situation that actually leads one to believe that unemployment is not necessarily on a downward trend.

SHADOW ANSWER:   Any situation that attacks the reasoning, the reasoning being a 1.2 percent reduction in rate of unemployment witnessed this year as opposed to last year means unemployment is on a downward trend.

STEP #4  ->   PROCESS OF ELIMINATION

All answer options that do not match the shadow answer can be eliminated.

A. The unemployment ﬁgures were computed on the basis of a representative sample of economic data rather than all of the available data. -   NOT A MATCH   -  This option does not impact the author's reasoning regarding the downward trend of rate of unemployment.  -   ELIMINATE

B. This year a temporary government spending project depressed the unemployment rate by 0.8 percent. -   MATCHES THE SHADOW ANSWER   -  If this year a temporary government spending project depressed the unemployment rate by 0.8 percent, the drop in the unemployment rate could be attributed to the project, but since the project is temporary, the unemployment rate could well increase once this project is stalled. The author's reasoning is therefore attacked.  -   KEEP

C. Increases in hiring would cause companies to be more productive, netting them earnings that would allow them to hire yet further. -   NOT A MATCH   -  The argument does not concern itself with the outcome of increasing hiring. -    ELIMINATE

D. The 8.2 percent rate of unemployment last year represented a two-year high. -   NOT A MATCH   -  Not worried about whether it was a two-year high or a ten-year high . -   ELIMINATE

E. The unemployment rate is a measure only of those individuals without employment who are looking for jobs. -   NOT A MATCH   -  Not worried about the definition of unemployment rate.  -   ELIMINATE

Hence, B has to be the correct answer.

pranjalshah · Answer

I have a doubt regarding this question. It looks very similar to this  OG question  that has B as the answer. However, option B in the OG question states that the cause brought inﬂation temporarily below its recent stable annual level of 4 percent. But in this question no such information is provided.

bronaugust · Answer

That is because this is a different question altogether. In the OG question, the dip in oil prices was temporary, and here, the government spending project is.  Could you let me know what your actual doubt is? I will be happy to help!

pranjalshah · Answer

Thanks for the prompt reply and sorry for not being clear.

What I meant was, in the OG question we can infer from the option that before the temporary dip, there was a stable annual rate of 4% inflation. So there's a possibility that the 4% rate is stable and last year was just an exception due to a temporary reason.

Here, it is given that the temporary government project depressed the unemployment rate by 0.8 percent. Even though this was temporary, on what basis can we back that there will not be a downward trend if we do not know the history?

bronaugust · Answer

You are most welcome! The author draws his conclusion based on what happened this year alone. He says because there was a 1.2 percent reduction in the rate of employment this year, the downward trend will continue. A flaw in the argument is that it overlooks the possibility of a specific situation that may have led to the drop in the rate of unemployment this year. If this is a permanent situation, the argument could remain on solid ground; however, if this situation is temporary, the argument will be weakened because the downward trend may not necessarily continue. Answer option (B) says the government project depressed the unemployment rate by 0.8 percent this year. Therefore, the reduction that happened this year could have been because of the government project. But if the project is stalled or withdrawn, the unemployment rate may not go down. The very same option also says this project is temporary. So, it casts doubt on the conclusion that the downward trend will continue. All we are looking for is an option that casts doubt on the argument. And (B) happens to do exactly that. Look at it this way: 0.8 percent drop out of 1.2 percent attributed to the government project | Remaining 0.4 percent due to some other factors Project withdrawn -> 0.8 percent increase in the then existing rate -> Even if other factors continue to remain, an overall increase in the unemployment rate by 0.4 percent could occur the year the project is withdrawn as opposed to the previous year -> Unemployment rate could go up. Hope this clarfied your doubt!

Do you have any other way of looking at it?

Scholar94 · Answer

Conclusion:unemployment is on a downward trend and the rate will be even lower next year.

Answer: B

Option CD and E are irrelevant to the argument. Option A requires a lot of convoluted assumption

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Bunuel · Answer

OFFICIAL EXPLANATION:

Reading the question: this is a weak argument, and we're asked to weaken it, so it will end up in shambles. We can create a filter by making a prediction of the answer. Perhaps unemployment for this population fluctuates from year to year around some level, so it's not down, it's basically the same within the envelope of fluctuation. We can use that expectation to filter the answer choices.

Applying the filter: choice (A) would strengthen the argument, so it's out. Choice (B) bears some similarity to our prediction, so it passes the filter. Choice (C) presents a hypothetical that does not shed light on the truth of the current situation, so it's irrelevant. Choice (D) doesn't especially weaken the argument; the rate could still be on a downward trend, given (D). Choice (E) is a definition of the unemployment rate that doesn't shed light on whether it's truly downward-trending. That leaves us with choice (B).

Logical proof: We can confirm choice (B) with the negation test. What if this year a temporary government spending project increased the unemployment rate by 0.8 percent? Then we have a reason to believe that the rate will go down in the future, when the temporary project effect is gone. So the negation of (B) would strengthen the argument, so (B) itself does weaken the argument.

The correct answer is (B).

Last year the rate of unemployment was 8.2 percent, but this year it

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