In the city of North Haverbrook, where a new tourism industry is

Question

In the city of North Haverbrook, where a new tourism industry is growing, hotels have been booked to capacity and forced to turn away potential visitors with increasing frequency. The number of desired room bookings is expected to increase by 25 percent within the next four years. Meanwhile, the local chamber of commerce believes that the establishment of new hotels will increase booking capacity by only 3 percent per year. Nevertheless, the chamber believes that this growth in the hotel industry will be sufficient to ensure that North Haverbrook's hotels do not turn away more potential bookings than they presently do.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest grounds for the officials' prediction?

A. Visitors to North Haverbrook can easily stay in nearby South Haverbrook, where hotel capacity exceeds demand by 15 percent.

B. Many of the new visitors to North Haverbrook are campers, and there is ample excess capacity to camp in North Haverbrook's park.

C. Many of the new visitors are students who intend to save costs by sleeping several people to a room.

D. Many of the new visitors to North Haverbrook will visit at times of year other than the two peak months.

E. Visitors to North Haverbrook can reach the city only by cable car up a mountain, and the capacity of the cable car traffic will grow even more slowly than that of the hotel rooms.

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Scholar94 · Answer

C. Mathematically, no of potential bookings that the hotels are currently turning away can be reduced either by increasing sufficiently only the no of available rooms,or by increasing only numbers the of potential visitors per room or doing both. C just tell us is both

The key to solve this is to be clear about what the prediction is. The prediction is that the hotels will not turn away more bookings than they currently do in the coming Yrs.

A and B strengthen different prediction. Infact the 2 statements are similar in reasonings

D. The prediction is not about the time of the year the potential visitors visit

E. Is totally irrelevant to the prediction

Posted from my mobile device

Shwarma · Answer

IMO Option D

The conclusion: The 3% increase in hotel is enough to suffice new customer projected growth 
A. Visitors to North Haverbrook can easily stay in nearby South Haverbrook, where hotel capacity exceeds demand by 15 percent. --  the conclusion says without turning away new visitors so , no eliminated 
B. Many of the new visitors to North Haverbrook are campers, and there is ample excess capacity to camp in North Haverbrook's park. --  Not related to passage , I felt so 
C. Many of the new visitors are students who intend to save costs by sleeping several people to a room. --  uhmm again the passage is about not turning away more folks than now with 3% increase, So I felt not related coz how many per room , will this be accommodated within the 3%.. too many unknowns 
D. Many of the new visitors to North Haverbrook will visit at times of year other than the two peak months. -  gives apat reasoning, where more ppl will come but at off season so 3% will suffice and the current turning away in peak season will remain as-is 
E. Visitors to North Haverbrook can reach the city only by cable car up a mountain, and the capacity of the cable car traffic will grow even more slowly than that of the hotel rooms. -  not relevant

prantorboni · Answer

Things to consider,
1. North Haverbrook hotels have been booked to capacity and forced to turn away potential visitors
2. The number of desired room bookings is expected to increase by 25 percent within the next four years
3. Chamber of commerce believes that the establishment of new hotels will increase booking capacity by only 3 percent per year
4. Growth in the hotel industry will be sufficient to not turn away more potential bookings than they presently do

Now, provides the strongest grounds for the officials' prediction, certainly, the prediction is North Haverbrook hotels will accommodate more visitors than they presently do whereas the capacity to accommodate new visitors will still be lower than desired by the visitors.

So, Option D is aligned with our presumption.

Answer: D

Alex1125 · Answer

The correct answer is:

D. Many of the new visitors to North Haverbrook will visit at times of year other than the two peak months.

This choice suggests that the increased demand for hotel rooms will be spread out over a longer period, reducing the pressure on hotels during peak months. This would mean that the 3 percent annual increase in hotel capacity would be more likely to meet the demand, as the demand would not be concentrated in just a few months.

The officials' prediction relies on the assumption that the increase in hotel capacity (3 percent per year) will be sufficient to meet the increased demand for hotel rooms (expected to rise by 25 percent over four years, which averages to about 6.25 percent per year). If many of the new visitors will come at times other than the peak months, the demand will be more evenly distributed throughout the year. This distribution will alleviate the pressure on hotel rooms during peak times, making it more manageable for the existing and newly built hotels to accommodate the increased number of visitors.

Let's evaluate the other options for clarity:

A. Visitors to North Haverbrook can easily stay in nearby South Haverbrook, where hotel capacity exceeds demand by 15 percent.

This option suggests an alternative accommodation but does not address the issue of ensuring North Haverbrook's hotels themselves meet the demand.
B. Many of the new visitors to North Haverbrook are campers, and there is ample excess capacity to camp in North Haverbrook's park.

This suggests an alternative form of accommodation but does not directly address the hotel capacity issue.
C. Many of the new visitors are students who intend to save costs by sleeping several people to a room.

While this could reduce the number of rooms needed, it does not provide a consistent solution applicable to all visitors.
E. Visitors to North Haverbrook can reach the city only by cable car up a mountain, and the capacity of the cable car traffic will grow even more slowly than that of the hotel rooms.

This option implies a potential constraint on the number of visitors due to limited transportation capacity but does not support the officials' belief that hotel capacity alone will suffice.
Therefore, D is the strongest answer because it directly addresses how the distribution of visitor arrivals throughout the year can help ensure that the hotel capacity meets the demand, aligning with the officials' prediction. (chat gpt)

Danny134 · Answer

Can you please post official explanations?

Bunuel · Answer

OFFICIAL EXPLANATION:

Reading the question: although the question stem isn't really phrased as such, the prompt has the structure of an "explain" question. There are two facts seemingly in contradiction, and we must choose the statement that accommodates and reconciles them.

Creating a filter: How could 1) a 3% increase in capacity be sufficient when 2) room bookings go up 25%? Supposing that we don't have a prediction, we can turn to the answer choices and look for choices that don't contradict the facts and address both 1) and 2).

Applying the filter: choice (A) contradicts the prompt; the whole point is that we won't have to turn anyone away. Same with (B): room bookings are supposed to go up 25%, not just visitors, so (B) is either contradictory or irrelevant. Choice (E) is irrelevant to the comparison of demand and capacity in the hotel rooms.

Logical proof: so we're left with (C) and (D). We can examine cases to elucidate what they mean and which is correct. Choice (D) would be wrong if we were told that the peak booking or simultaneous booking is up 25 percent... but we are not told that. Does (C) have a problem? Yes, it does: we are talking about room bookings, not the number of people. So (C) is actually irrelevant; it can be true and the number of room bookings is still going up 25%. So the explanation is that capacity doesn't need to grow as fast as the bookings because the bookings will show up at times with excess capacity, not the busy times.

The correct answer is (D).

RiyaJ0032 · Answer

Hi  DmitryFarber ,

can you please provide your insights on this question

is this even a valid question?

the problem with D is that, even if many people come in off peak season , it can still be that the remaining bookings the hotel get exceeds the capacity

for eg, let's say the total bookings are 125
while the hotel capacity is 103

now 10 people will come in off peak, which means 115 people are still left and it exceeds the hotel capacity

so wouldn't that make D irrelevant

DmitryFarber · Answer

This one is alright. It's important to keep in mind that we aren't trying to  prove  the conclusion. We're just trying to make it look more reasonable. If most of the 25% increase in demand is in less popular months, it's possible that the hotel will never exceed capacity at all. Of course, your scenario is also possible, but the point is that D gives us a way for the conclusion to work out, despite the seeming discrepancy in the numbers. Part of the value of D is that it introduces the idea of peak months at all. If there are months with much lower demand, then the hotels are not currently running at full capacity all the time. That shows us how they  might  not need a great increase in capacity to handle a lot more people.

In the city of North Haverbrook, where a new tourism industry is

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In the city of North Haverbrook, where a new tourism industry is

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