GMAT Score Estimator (Beta)

This tool is design to help you gauge your performance based on your practice gmat scores

1. How to use GMAT Score Estimator/Preictor/Calculator

2. Help Improve GMAT Score Estimator - please submit your scores!

• Submit your GMAT Scores if you have already taken GMAT
• If you have not taken your GMAT but have a test date set, set a reminder and we'll send you a message the day after your GMAT

3. Took GMAT Already? Find out your tolerance for stress

4. GMAT Score Estimator FAQ

• Is it precise?
• How does it work?
• Which practice tests work best?

5. Everything about Performance Under Pressure "thing"

5. Have feedback? Help us improve - share your thoughts - reply to this thread

Frequently Asked Questions About GMAT Score Estimator

1. Is it precise?
The score that you are given by the estimator consists of several scores – an estimated single score and then a confidence interval represented by the gray circle. There is a degree of certainty about each of them. For example, chances that you will score the exact number we estimated are probably 30% (can very significantly for different tests), but there is a 90% chance that your final score will fall within the confidence interval. Also, please note to set the Performance Under Pressure lever accordingly – you may want to set it to the lowest and highest settings to see the full spectrum of your possible scores. If not sure - leave it in the Average setting (read more about it below)

2. How does the score estimator work?
The score estimator relies on several pieces of information – practice test scores, final gmat score, and one’s ability to perform at the test center when compared to the home environment. There are several algorithms involved. The formula is based on the user-submitted scores and is adaptable, so as more scores are submitted, the formula is changed and refined. The formula is a bit complex for our liking, but in a nutshell, we use regressions to understand how each of the practice test scores correlates to the final GMAT. Several relationships are established. After that, we use weighted averages of the regression results, add some secret sauce and arrive at the estimated score. We are also using confidence intervals to provide a more accurate picture and give 95th or 90th interval. During trials, we have been able to predict most scores with great accuracy. If your experience is different, please reply to this thread – we’d love to hear your thoughts and score results.


3. Why did I not get the score estimated?
Score estimation an approximate rather than precise science – think of it as a direction rather than exact coordinates. Even if we had an absolute exact algorithm, there would be still factors that would create some volatility across the results:
3.1. Human factor: one’s performance depends on many factors including sleep, ability to focus, and stress. We take into consideration these factors but only on a global/average level. Thus the closer you are to the average, the more precise score you will get; at the same time, if stress is your second nature, your performance will be better than our estimation
3.2. Each of the practice tests we use for estimation have differences in them. Even minute ones count in this case.
3.3. Quantity of data – see the next two bullets below


4. Which practice tests will yield the most accurate GMAT Score estimation?
We don’t have this answer quite yet, but can tell you that your best results will be based on GMAT Prep and Manhattan GMAT as those two tests have the most records


5. Which practice tests are less reliable for GMAT Score estimation?
We have only about 50 scores for Kaplan and Princeton Review in the database, so results involving these two scores will be less accurate until we are able to gather more data

Performance Under Pressure (Stress)

Is one of the features enabled by the GMAT Score estimator – we know how test-takers perform on simulated tests at home (in a familiar and comfortable environment with a set level of pressure) and we also know how they perform on the GMAT at a test center (in a high pressure environment). There are many differences and factors that separate the two, but making a very big generalization, let's assume that the main difference between home and test center environment is the stress level. Knowing how scores correlate and are distributed on a bell-shaped curve, we can build a distribution and get performance under pressure percentile. Obviously, as every other measuring stick, it is not perfect: we are ignoring one’s unique physical discomforts, repeat test takers that skew the curve, and historic test variations. However, it is probably the best we have so far.


Why?
You can significantly improve your scores by learning to handle stress better. For example,
Learning how one works under pressure may prove to be a valuable tool that you can scale across all aspects of life – deadlines, presentations, admissions interviews, and holidays are just some examples, and of course it can also help on the GMAT. This metric is based on how well other GMAT Test-takers performed, so it compares you to your peers.

To get your performance under pressure percentile, click here.

This is a great contribution.

Great thing! Thanks!

Just submitted my scores and viewed the 'stress factor'. It seems I was not stressed as much as I thought - only 64% percentile (average level, I guess).

And then I tried the inverse: checked the calculator itself (with average level of stress) - and it gave me exactly my real score

Also I have some questions or perhaps suggestions regarding the way of further development:

1. It is known that tests from some providers are available in packs, so teoretically one person might have results from several tests from the same provider. Would allowing to enter the results from all tests taken make prediction more precise?

2. (Connected with previous in a sense). Often, a student's preparation lasts several weeks or months - and it is typically possible to see that test scores have an upward trend over this period. Perhaps, it may be possible in future to take into account the time when the test was taken - e.g., when the preparation just started, in the middle, or just a few days before the GMAT?

Thank you for submitting the score



Definitely - thank you. I am collecting all the feedback I can get for version 2 - that's the purpose of this thread really.

1. Good point. There may be some variance between lets say Kaplan test 1 and Kaplan test 2 or even GMAT prep 1 and GMAT prep 2. I am not sure it if it is significant, but it is probably there. I will play with the statistics and see if it is significant to include.

2. Let me make sure I got this correctly. Instead of the current model of taking a single practice test in time and basing the score on that performance, instead we can take a series of tests at different points of time and improve reliability of prediction by building a series of test events? If so, it is an interesting idea - I will have to consider it in the next version. Right now I have completely missed it

Very nice!!

Does it use neural networks?

Thanks! I am happy it worked for you

Hello!

It seems to be a very useful tool this Beta Score Estimator, I just would like to heard a litle bitte more about the experiences from those that took Kaplan tests before the real GMAT. Please, there is someone that could share his experience?

I took 630 in my Kaplan test and the Estimator stated that my grade in GMAT should be 710, ranging from 680 to 740 ( 95% confidence level ). Based on that could I be confident about take a good grade at GMAT?

Thanks!

I scored 650 on the Kaplan a few weeks before getting 750 on the real GMAT, so you have a good chance of getting above 700.

The best predictor is the GMAT Prep software (get GMATprep)

Many thanks BB.

I will work a litle bitte harder in order to try improve my scores some more points.

Tks!

Nice tool...I m still to take date for GMAT. Presently, I m giving Princeton test...
I have one question ....Priceton , Manhattan all have more than 1 test...so which test score to be used for tool...or we have to enter avg of score(manataan 1,2..6)

Use the latest test you have taken. The tool does not distinguish between PR1 and PR6. The assumption is that they are somewhat consistent, which is a big one, but that makes things much easier and more reliable.

Just to provide input for others:

I never broke 680 on any practice exams (Powerprep, GMATPrep, online Kaplan test, online MGMAT exams).

Also, the score estimator had me at a 680.

I scored 710 on the real thing.

Thank you!
You must have a very good tolerance to stress. Try submitting your score (uncheck the box to submit the score but check one to get your performance under pressure percentile) - it will tell you how you rank to the rest of us.

Here ya go

Does this estimator do a good job predicting people that have a huge standard deviation of scores? I have a 75 point SD. Here are my 5 tests:

610 (GMatprep)
660 (Kaplan- pencil and paper)
590 (GMatprep)
510 (Kaplan CAT 1)
710 (Kaplan CAT 2)

It seems to me that an estimator like this would be more useful for someone that scores consistently on the test. Are these scores weird or what?

All of your tests are in-line except the last Kaplan. I would try another test - that is way too high for the same Kaplan you got 510 on (historically Kaplan is 100 points below real score, but they have been working on it lately).