hogann wrote:
Local authorities are considering an amendment to the litter law that would raise the fine for littering in the community picnic area to $1,000. Since the inception of the litter law, incremental increases in the littering fine have proven to be consistently effective at further reducing the amount of litter in the community picnic area. However, raising the fine to $1,000 would actually have the unintended effect of increasing the amount of litter in the picnic area. Picnic area users would perceive this fine to be unreasonable and unenforceable, and would disregard the litter law altogether.
In the argument, the two portions in boldface play which of the following roles?
A. The first is irrefutable evidence that the author offers in support of a prediction; the second is that prediction.
B. The first is a statement of causation that the author predicts will be repeated in the case at hand; the second raises evidence against this prediction.
C. The first is a statement of fact that the author accepts to be true; the second is presented as a consequence of this fact.
D. The first is evidence that weakens the main position that the author defends; the second is that position.
E. The first is a statement of causation that the author predicts will not hold in the case at hand; the second offers a line of reasoning to support this prediction.
OFFICIAL EXPLANATION:
The author concludes that raising the fine to $1,000 would have the unintended effect of increasing the amount of litter in the picnic area. When determining the function of the two bold statements, we must consider how they relate to this conclusion: the first bold portion weighs against the conclusion, while the second bold portion supports the conclusion. The correct answer will represent these relationships.
(A) The “prediction” mentioned here refers to the author’s conclusion (raising the fine to $1,000 would increase the amount of litter). This answer choice incorrectly states that the first bold portion supports this conclusion. Also, this choice incorrectly states that the second bold statement is the prediction, or conclusion.
(B) This choice incorrectly states that the author’s prediction, or conclusion, is consistent with the first bold statement when in fact it predicts the exact opposite outcome. Further, this answer states that the second bold portion weighs against the author’s conclusion when in fact it supports the conclusion.
(C) The second bold portion does not come as a consequence of the first. In fact, the two bold portions are in complete contrast to one another.
(D) The second bold portion is not the main position that the author defends. The main position is that raising the fine to $1,000 would increase the amount of litter in the picnic area.
(E) CORRECT. This answer choice correctly identifies the first bold portion as a statement of causation that does not support the author’s claim, and the second bold statement as a line of logic that does support this claim.