rainfall
I am wondering what percentage of candidates they have already invited...
Almost half of the invitations period has elapsed, so I'm starting to lose hope
Our chances are roughly half of what they were in the beginning, but let's not lose hope.
If you still don't hear about the invite its either:
1) adcom has reviwed your application and decided you not qualify for admission
2) they haven't reviewed your application yet
There is also a small chance that they have seen you application, liked it, but no so much as to invite you right away. So they will return to your application when they have seen the entire pool. But this probability is too small, so I suggest it to be zero.
I apply the following formula:
Chances of receiving an invite=x*0+(1-x)*S
x=# of candidates reviewed by adcom by this moment/# of applicants
S - stands for success rate - how you estimate your overall chances of receiving an invite, before adcom started sending invites
Roughly one half of invites has been sent. For example if you estimated S to be 70% for Wharton in the beginning, it is only 35% now. Still not bad. Though the chances are dissapearing quickly :/ But if you are a marginal candidate and they want to review the entire pool before inviting you, your chances might be even greater.