Bunuel wrote:
Stocks traded on the stock market are known to fluctuate based on any news that concerns the strength of the economy. One such source of news comes from certain 'harbinger' companies. If these companies report solid earnings, it is taken as a sign that the economy is healthy and that other companies will also report higher earnings in the future, thus driving up stock prices. Before the stock market opened this morning, a 'harbinger' company, United Automobiles, announced earnings for the previous quarter that were dramatically better than expected. Therefore, the overall stock market will be up sharply today.
Which of the following, if true, most weakens the argument above?
A. Many people who own stock of United Automobiles have not yet heard of the news that earnings came in higher than were expected.
B. Economic experts announced today that interest rates are rising rapidly, and this condition is known to slow the overall economy.
C. Stock prices have been fluctuating more dramatically this year than in the previous five years.
D. United Automobiles attributed its earnings success to increased demand for its automobiles.
E. United Automobiles often has difficulties dealing with its very strong labor union and this often causes the company to have to share increased earnings with its workforce.
KAPLAN OFFICIAL EXPLANATION:
The words “weakens the argument above” indicate that this is a Weaken question.
Untangle the Stimulus:The conclusion of this argument is signified by the author's use of the word 'therefore'. The author is arguing that the stock market will be up today. As evidence the author notes that the market responds to news about the strength of the economy and that one of the harbinger companies, which are taken as indicators of economic strength, announced positive earnings news this morning. Note that harbinger companies are just one source of news. The author is assuming that no negative news has come out from other sources at the same time, to counteract the positive news from United Automobiles.
Predict the Answer:To weaken this argument, the correct answer will suggest that other, negative news about the economy has come out to counteract the positive news from United automobiles. This could be news from another harbinger company, or news from some other source.
Evaluate the Choices:(B), the correct answer, describes other news that gives a clear indication that the economy might not be as strong as is indicated by United Automobiles' financial results. If interest goes up, the stock market might not increase despite the good news from United.
(A) is irrelevant. The fact that some owners of United Autos stock do not yet know the news would not impair others from bidding up the value of the overall stock market.
(C) is also irrelevant. There's not enough information to know if the increased fluctuation is reason to believe that this current news will or will not result in an increase in stock prices.
(D) simply explains why the earnings are up; it doesn't give any more information on the strength of the economy, so it has no effect on the argument.
(E) may be tempting, but it is ultimately irrelevant. What United actually does with its increased earnings has no bearing on the argument, which says that the increased earnings themselves indicate economic strength.
TAKEAWAY: When an argument allows for multiple factors to affect an outcome, and evidence of only one of these factors is given, the author may be overlooking the effect of other factors.