IHateTheGMAT wrote:
trader1 wrote:
refurb wrote:
I really hope your right, but I've got the feeling we're in for an interesting year. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if the DJIA hit a new low this year.
RF
If the uptick rule is instated, then I would blow my call, and we may see a 1000 pt rally in the DJIA. But, I agree that we should hit a new low this year. Nothing has fundamentally improved in the real economy, and unemployment is going to rise into double digits before this is all over. It's not going to be pretty.
Actually there have been fundamental changes in the real economy. Manufacturing orders, consumer spending, durable goods, even some home sale numbers have all been moving upward. On top of that, mortgage rates have dropped to 4.78%, the stimulus money will start flowing soon and most market participants have been cautiously optimistic about the PPIP. Come on trader1, don't close your eyes to some of the positive economic news out there while choosing to see only the news/data that supports your bearish views
We are experiencing the worst crisis since the Great Depression. There were many sharp bear market rallies then, and it will be no different this time.
Any short-term upward movements in the economic figures do not constitute a fundamental change. We are in a bear market. We will always see violent rebounds even as high as 100% off the lows during bear markets.
The PPIP is one of the worst ideas to help solve the situation. What the Geithner plan does is create an artificial market (at further risk to the taxpayer) by allowing investors to once again leverage up and buy these garbage derivatives at inflated places (which the banks will be happy to sell at the highest prices possible). There is no market for these products, because they are worth 0 at the moment. Any attempts to create an artificial market like the PPIP would will end with the losses being born yet again by the taxpayer.
The stimulus money is not going to make a significant impact on the real economy this year or even next year.
https://www.stanford.edu/~johntayl/CCTW%20Mar%202.pdfGo to page 13 of the document, and you will see how the stimulus money is being spent. As time goes on without the money making it to the real economy, more businesses will continue to lay off workers, and the consumption will continue to decline creating a downward spiral.
I would love to hear exactly what is going to fix the economy. We are long overdue for painful readjustment. We have been having a grand old party fueled by credit excess.
Which foreign countries are going to continue buying T-bills to keep the party going? Interest rates have to rise significantly or taxes have to rise domestically. Or, the US needs to export so many goods and services in order to move back to a trade surplus so it can begin to pay off its debts. When is that going to happen?!
In my opinion, not anytime soon.