There is clearly not enough speculation going on here so allow me to fill that void
From reading various Kellogg forums I've come to realize a few things:
1) Most people admitted off the WL in Jan-Apr are from the relatively small group of people who are asked for specific information (clarifying goals, etc.). These admits usually come at the first WL release day for each round. Based on this theory, we should hear of a couple of admits around Apr 16th.
2) The majority of decisions in Feb-Apr are dings for people in the R1 WL as the AdCom compares them with the R2 candidates.
3) A wave of admits will follow the R2 deposit deadline, which coincides with the second R2 WL release day - May 9th. The admit calls will be followed by the ding emails, just like the regular R1 and R2 decisions.
4) In June, a series of decisions - dings and admits - will come in the first half, followed by offers to join the summer waitlist towards the end of the month. This is followed by a bunch of admits in July and August.
These observations are from previous years and R1 of this year but the dynamic in R2 might be different because of the apparently larger-than-usual number of waitlisted candidates. Alright, time for bed.