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Re: Kellogg 2012 - Calling All Waitlist Applicants
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22 Mar 2012, 17:36
HCF, thanks for putting this together, although as a small note I was WL R2. I was the first to report a WL since I got the email late at night while having trouble sleeping over my Booth waitlist earlier that day. FML.
But anyway: If I take your +20% assumption to account for under reported admits and also apply it to the BTG number you apply, that means there are roughly 180 admits so far between BTG and GC. Using last year's yield and a class size of 655, Kellogg admitted roughly 1100 students last year (the front page says 1112). Therefore BTG and GC admits represent roughly 16% of the admitted class so far (this may be high since some people likely post on both sites and would be double counted).
If we assume that BTG and GC combined represent 1/5 of acceptees (I think a fair assumption that may be higher since we are talking about people with good enough applications to get in and the two largest forums out there) that means we have roughly 900 acceptees so far. If Kellogg repeats its traditional yield of around 60% that leaves 115 spots for the class of 2014 (give or take). If we expect the yield on the waitlist to be higher, say 75% (which is north of Wharton's yield), that leaves roughly 150 more admits from the waitlist and R3. Again if we apply the 20% rule that means there are roughly 500 people on the waitlist plus R3 applicants for 150 spots. On its surface a 500 person waitlist seems way too high but we'll leave it for now.
That seems like fairly decent odds to be honest, even with what seems to be a very overstated waitlist number of 500. I honeslty have no idea how many apps come in for round 3 but given how many people typically get in from that round, it has to be de minimus. Even if we say there are 100 great aps from R3 that are as solid as the waitlisted R1 and R2 folks, we still have a 25% chance of getting in. In actuality the chance may be much higher.
And this is with me making assumptions that skew towards us not getting in. The only assumption that you could debate that hurts our chances is my assumption that 20% of applicants post on BTG and GC. However even if that is high, its likely at least partially counterbalanced by my other assumptions.