jjoeteller wrote:
Ok, you will probably think I'm crazy with this analysis, but it's really an effort to brainwash myself into hope, more than anything...
I actually went through last year's thread and took note of everyone that was WListed with interview, and then stalked their user history to see whether they eventually got in. I deliberately ignored people who just wrote "Just got in off the WL" if they hadn't expressed before that they had been waitlisted, in order to avoid self-selecting bias of ecstatic people who had just gotten in.
Results -->
rdxb admitted
hbsalias dinged
melody2120 admitted
pembahopeful admitted
lunasea29 no info
TOTAL = >60%
That's gotta be good news, come on. Who's with me?
Will you be going to booth too if not admitted to hbs?
I think the basic challenge in your analysis would be the small sample size but independently I think we have approximately %50 chance.
Did you calculate the first round intakes, second round and waitlist including %90 yield assumption?