Mrs. Mason is gifted with psychic powers that enable her to

why D is incorrect ?

If the predictions are rather obvious, what does it prove if 100% of them are accurate ?

Mrs. Mason is gifted with psychic powers that enable her to foretell future events. In the past, Mrs. Mason has predicted such actual events as the election of President Clinton, the stock market crash of 1987, and the St. Loius Cardinals' 1982 World Series victory. These are just a few of Mrs. Mason's accurate predictions. The answer to which of the following questions would be most useful in evaluating the strength of the argument above?

A) What percentage of Mrs. Mason's predictions has come true?
B) What percentage of other people predicted the same events that Mrs Mason claims to have foretold?
C) What is the actual mechanism by which Mrs. Mason's psychic powers are supposed to operate?
D) Are Mrs Masons predictions usually against the odds?
E) To what extent does Mrs Mason base her predictions on Psychic intuion as opposed to psychic ability?

I happened to choose E myself first because i felt psychic intuition was something clearly different from psychic ability but it is not the case. They are almost synonymous. Psychic ability operates on the faculty of intuition.

This doesn't look like a very well framed question. The OA doesn't make a lot of sense. How would the % of accurate predictions be irrefutable proof to a person's psychic ability? If the events foretold are 85% accurate does it add weight to her psychic powers? If it is 65% does she still possess psychic power? Whats the range? I feel we need to find an answer here that says it is really psychic ability that is helping her to make these predictions and not just simple guessing or safe bets.

Hi RahulSingh13,

I just want to discuss my thought about this Q. Don't u think that a conclusion is always a group of words (often convoluted) and it's up to the reader to choose an aspect from the conclusion for debate? I feel in the conclusion: 'Mrs. Mason is gifted with psychic powers that enable her to foretell future events' - the principal claim is that the lady can foretell future events and not that her powers are psychic or otherwise. That she possess psychic powers is rather a premise by the author. If we think this way choice A makes much more sense, isn't it?
Share your thoughts, if u like to.

Hello Binit,

Isn't the ability to foretell future events in part the ability of a psychic? The fact that she can foretell future events implies that she has a certain ability, clairvoyance which in the argument is clearly stated as "psychic powers".

Lets assume it's not psychic ability and lets say she foretelling future events. If she made 4 predictions and got all of them right then 100% of her predictions are accurate, her ability can be vindicated. If she makes 5 predictions and gets one wrong she is right only 80% of the times. So now we know that she can't foretell future events? My entire contention is that how can we accurately say that she can foretell without being able to safely rule out the possibility that she just isn't a regular person making guesses and getting them right or that the predictions that she is making are just plain obvious. If she predicted that Narendra Modi would become PM and not RaGa it's a not so much a prediction than it is just plain obvious. That's why i prefer D here because IMO if we know that she is just not going with the flow or making safe bets, she just might be foretelling future events. This is just my take on this argument and by no means I am claiming it must be correct.
Thanks.

Hi Rahul,

Your first comment was more concerned about 'psychic powers', but now u feel D is a better choice. Anyway, D can be easily ruled out in front of A, I think. Think about it, which one is more necessary: 1. Mrs Mason's accuracy (% correct) or 2. Her predictions being against the odds. Please notice that without 1, 2 is just nothing. Consider this: Mrs. Mason predicted in 90% events against general public expectations but her accuracy has been only 5% (e.g. She favored RaGa over NaMo ). So, A is anytime better than D. D is a very good point given A is true

Ur comments.

Thanks.

Hi Rahul,

Okay, can we think of the argument stating Mrs. Mason is gifted with psychic powers as a premise and her powers enable her to foretell future events as the main conclusion? I think we can divide the first sentence into 2 w/o changing the meaning. So, the argument looks like:
Mrs. Mason is gifted with psychic powers. Her powers enable her to foretell future events. In the past, Mrs. Mason has predicted such actual events as the election of President Clinton, the stock market crash of 1987, and the St. Loius Cardinals' 1982 World Series victory. These are just a few of Mrs. Mason's accurate predictions.

Don't you think we should take the first sentence as a premise and should not doubt it? BTW rest of the argument is totally devoted to the accuracy of Mrs. Mason and so is expected from the correct answer choice.

What do u think?