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The probability that a target will be shot two out of two [#permalink]
17 Mar 2013, 17:53

3

This post received KUDOS

4

This post was BOOKMARKED

00:00

A

B

C

D

E

Difficulty:

45% (medium)

Question Stats:

57% (01:58) correct
43% (01:20) wrong based on 126 sessions

The probability that B can shoot a target two out of two times is 0.25. What is the probability that the target will be missed by B immediately after such two shots?

Re: The probability that a target will be shot two out of two [#permalink]
17 Mar 2013, 22:23

Probablity of B can shoot a target 2/2 is 0.25 i.e. the probablity that he will shot both the times is 1/4. And the probality that he will score either 1 or 0 (miss 1 or both) is 3/4. Hence the probablity of miss the target should be 3/4 i.e. 0.75. Answer is C.

Re: The probability that a target will be shot two out of two [#permalink]
18 Mar 2013, 00:46

3

This post received KUDOS

The probability of 2 "times" is 0,25 \(x^2=0,25\) \(x=0,5\) x= probability of missing/hitting the target

The probability that he will miss the next shot is 0,5. "The streak" is not relevant.If I throw a coin the probability of getting one "side" is the same regardless of what I have obtained in the previous shots.

Correct me if I am wrong. _________________

It is beyond a doubt that all our knowledge that begins with experience.

Re: The probability that a target will be shot two out of two [#permalink]
18 Mar 2013, 05:26

Zarrolou wrote:

The probability of 2 "times" is 0,25 \(x^2=0,25\) \(x=0,5\) x= probability of missing/hitting the target

The probability that he will miss the next shot is 0,5. "The streak" is not relevant.If I throw a coin the probability of getting one "side" is the same regardless of what I have obtained in the previous shots.

Correct me if I am wrong.

OA is B and the above explanation is correct. _________________

Re: The probability that a target will be shot two out of two [#permalink]
24 Mar 2013, 00:42

Suppose there are total 'x' shots. B shoots 2 out of 2 times. means out of x shots (x>2) B shots 2 out of 2 ----> B shots at least 2 out of x. therefore, 2/x = 0.25 (given)

the target will be missed by B immediately after such two shots : this means he can shot just twice ...the third shot cannot happen which means he missed (x-2) shots. thus, the probabilty of missing just after 2 shots is (x-2)/x. (x-2)/x = 1 - 2/x = 1 - 0.25 = 0.75

Re: The probability that a target will be shot two out of two [#permalink]
24 Mar 2013, 02:13

1

This post received KUDOS

Expert's post

Perhaps wrote:

Suppose there are total 'x' shots. B shoots 2 out of 2 times. means out of x shots (x>2) B shots 2 out of 2 ----> B shots at least 2 out of x. therefore, 2/x = 0.25 (given)

the target will be missed by B immediately after such two shots : this means he can shot just twice ...the third shot cannot happen which means he missed (x-2) shots. thus, the probabilty of missing just after 2 shots is (x-2)/x. (x-2)/x = 1 - 2/x = 1 - 0.25 = 0.75

Answer : C

Please correct me.

Frankly I don't understand your reasoning above. Anyway:

The probability that B can shoot a target two out of two times is 0.25 --> if the probability of success is p, then the probability of two successes in a row is p*p, we are told that p*p=0.25 --> p=0.5.

Now, the third shoot is independent from the first two, thus the probability of success with third try is p=0.5 and the probability of missing in third try is 1-p=0.5.

Re: The probability that a target will be shot two out of two [#permalink]
24 Mar 2013, 04:38

Quote:

Frankly I don't understand your reasoning above. Anyway:

The probability that B can shoot a target two out of two times is 0.25 --> if the probability of success is p, then the probability of two successes in a row is p*p, we are told that p*p=0.25 --> p=0.5.

Now, the third shoot is independent from the first two, thus the probability of success with third try is p=0.5 and the probability of missing in third try is 1-p=0.5.

Answer: B.

hey bunuel ....i still cant understand the method:( why v r considering p=0.25 ... while in ques its clearly mentioned that success for two shots is 0.25 ....

Re: The probability that a target will be shot two out of two [#permalink]
24 Mar 2013, 04:40

Expert's post

Perhaps wrote:

Quote:

Frankly I don't understand your reasoning above. Anyway:

The probability that B can shoot a target two out of two times is 0.25 --> if the probability of success is p, then the probability of two successes in a row is p*p, we are told that p*p=0.25 --> p=0.5.

Now, the third shoot is independent from the first two, thus the probability of success with third try is p=0.5 and the probability of missing in third try is 1-p=0.5.

Answer: B.

hey bunuel ....i still cant understand the method:( why v r considering p=0.25 ... while in ques its clearly mentioned that success for two shots is 0.25 ....

Re: The probability that a target will be shot two out of two [#permalink]
02 Jul 2014, 05:35

There are only 2 possibilietes: hit or no hit. Hence for the first shot the probability of hitting the target is 1/2. For the second shot also 1/2. Thus, the probability of hitting both is 1/2*1/2 = 1/4. Not hitting the next target is again 1/2. Hence B.

Re: The probability that a target will be shot two out of two [#permalink]
15 Jul 2014, 22:23

Bunuel wrote:

Frankly I don't understand your reasoning above. Anyway:

The probability that B can shoot a target two out of two times is 0.25 --> if the probability of success is p, then the probability of two successes in a row is p*p, we are told that p*p=0.25 --> p=0.5.

Now, the third shoot is independent from the first two, thus the probability of success with third try is p=0.5 and the probability of missing in third try is 1-p=0.5.

Answer: B.

Hello Bunuel,

How is the third shot independent of the first two shots ? The question states that "What is the probability that the target will be missed by B immediately after such two shots". I assumed this to be a conditional probability. That is, we have to consider only those failures which follow two successes.

Re: The probability that a target will be shot two out of two [#permalink]
16 Jul 2014, 01:32

Expert's post

1

This post was BOOKMARKED

parul1591 wrote:

Bunuel wrote:

Frankly I don't understand your reasoning above. Anyway:

The probability that B can shoot a target two out of two times is 0.25 --> if the probability of success is p, then the probability of two successes in a row is p*p, we are told that p*p=0.25 --> p=0.5.

Now, the third shoot is independent from the first two, thus the probability of success with third try is p=0.5 and the probability of missing in third try is 1-p=0.5.

Answer: B.

Hello Bunuel,

How is the third shot independent of the first two shots ? The question states that "What is the probability that the target will be missed by B immediately after such two shots". I assumed this to be a conditional probability. That is, we have to consider only those failures which follow two successes.

Appreciate your thoughts on this ! Thank you

Agree that the wording is not perfect. But "missed by B immediately after such two shots" means that these two shoots have already been made. _________________

Re: The probability that a target will be shot two out of two [#permalink]
03 Nov 2014, 03:52

probability of at least 1 miss in the 2 hits is 0.75. (1-0.25). so (miss,hit)(hit,miss) (miss miss) is 0.75. in these 2 out of three is miss in the first attempt(which replicates for 3rd attempt). hence (2/3)*0.75=0.5.

Regds Siva

gmatclubot

Re: The probability that a target will be shot two out of two
[#permalink]
03 Nov 2014, 03:52

Originally posted on MIT Sloan School of Management : We are busy putting the final touches on our application. We plan to have it go live by July 15...