kinjiGC wrote:
UCLA Sociologist: Between 1962 and 2012, the marriage rate (that is the percentage of adult women over 16 who get married for the first time each year) fell from 110 marriages a year per 1,000 unmarried women to just 37, a stunning 66 percent decline. Given this trend, there will likely be no women getting married for the first time by 2050!
Which of the following, if true, exposes a flaw in the sociologist’s reasoning?
A) The average age of marriage has increased dramatically in the past 20 years.
B) Today’s divorce rates are expected to rise dramatically over the next 40 years.
C) More women are expected to get married for a second and third time in the next 40 years.
D) Many women are deciding to simply live with their partners rather than get married.
E) Marriage is much less likely to occur today for the first time than it was in the 1960’s.
A good question
Hi aditya8062,
I will give you an analogy, please consider this if it helps.
In 1990, human mortality rate was 70/1000
In 2010, human mortality was 30/1000
According to this argument, if we simply extrapolate, in few years say 2050, no one will die. Is that possible ?
1. Yes, for some miracle, humans stop dying.
2. No, Why ?
The decrease in mortality rate is due to increased life expectancy for improved health care, genetic adaptations, availability of food etc... People who were dying at 70, now dying at 90.
What's the effect of this, we have increased population growth to accommodate the extra humans of 70-90 age. To give you scientific fact, in another 50 years, world population will be constant. Mortality rate = birth rate = Constant
Now, in this argument:
In 1962, first time marriage rate 110/1000
In 2012, first time marriage rate 37/100
by 2050 no one will marry for 1st time , is it possible ?
Conclusion:
1. Yes. The author believes
2. No, why ?
The bachelorhood span is increasing. Women who were marrying at 20, delaying their marriage to 40. So the decrease is transient and it will remain constant at say at 30/1000 some point in time. But for now, all we need to prove is this increase in bachelorhood span is happening. 'A' hits the spot.