GMAT CLUB OLYMPICS: Each of the past four years, the number of applica

IMO A

Each of the past four years, the number of applications to literature Ph.D. programs in the United States has declined by more than ten percent year over year according to a recent report by American College Daily. From this statistic, it can be reasonably concluded that fewer U.S. students are interested in literature Ph.D. programs now than were four years ago.

Each of the following, if true, would weaken the conclusion EXCEPT:


A. The average age of applicants to United States literature Ph.D. programs has changed markedly over the past four years. irrelevant data .so it doesn't weaken

B. The number of international students applying to literature Ph.D. programs in the United States has declined by nearly half in the past four years. If number of international students applying declined , It can be a reason for the decrease in total number of applications and not that American students genuinely lost interest in literature

C. The cost of attending a literature Ph.D. program in the United States has more than doubled in the past four years.
It suggests that lesser applications is because of fee hike not because of lack of interest

D. The average number of Ph.D. programs that the average Ph.D. applicant applies to has dropped from seven to four over the past four years.
another reason for decrease in application so weakens

E. The number of Ph.D. programs reporting data to American College Daily has declined precipitously since the publication stopped compensating for such submissions three years ago. If that's the case , the statistics doesn't represent the actual facts

A - wrong - gives another reason for the decline
B - wrong - Same as A
C - wrong - Same as A
E - wrong - Same as A -perhaps more prominent programs stopped giving the data, hence the decline

D - Right - It is consistent data if the people are less interested, average number of phd application per person has dropped.

Hence D ans

Each of the past four years, the number of applications to literature Ph.D. programs in the United States has declined by more than ten percent year over year according to a recent report by American College Daily. From this statistic, it can be reasonably concluded that fewer U.S. students are interested in literature Ph.D. programs now than were four years ago.

Each of the following, if true, would weaken the conclusion EXCEPT:

any option that shows that there is some other reason which has led to decrease in number of applications to literature PhD programs will weaken.
A. The average age of applicants to United States literature Ph.D. programs has changed markedly over the past four years. - incorrect. this shows another reason why the applications declined.

B. The number of international students applying to literature Ph.D. programs in the United States has declined by nearly half in the past four years.-- incorrect. this shows another reason why the applications declined.

C. The cost of attending a literature Ph.D. program in the United States has more than doubled in the past four years. -- incorrect. this shows another reason why the applications declined.

D. The average number of Ph.D. programs that the average Ph.D. applicant applies to has dropped from seven to four over the past four years. -- this can weaken because there could be this scenario where applicants are not applying to not just literature PhD programs but other PhD programs as well!

E. The number of Ph.D. programs reporting data to American College Daily has declined precipitously since the publication stopped compensating for such submissions three years ago. - correct. This doesn't seem to have any effect on the argument.

A. The average age of applicants to United States literature Ph.D. programs has changed markedly over the past four years. Weakens

B. The number of international students applying to literature Ph.D. programs in the United States has declined by nearly half in the past four years. Weakens

C. The cost of attending a literature Ph.D. program in the United States has more than doubled in the past four years. Weakens

D. The average number of Ph.D. programs that the average Ph.D. applicant applies to has dropped from seven to four over the past four years. Correct

E. The number of Ph.D. programs reporting data to American College Daily has declined precipitously since the publication stopped compensating for such submissions three years ago.Weakens

Ans: D

If we can show some other factors responsible for the declination in the total number of applications, then we will weaken the conclusion.

A. The average age of applicants to United States literature Ph.D. programs has changed markedly over the past four years.
Age is irrelevant for evaluating the conclusion "fewer US students are interested in literature Ph.D. programs now than were four years ago". Keep it for now.

B. The number of international students applying to literature Ph.D. programs in the United States has declined by nearly half in the past four years.
Since the number of international students applying to literature Ph.D. programs has declined, the total number of applications has declined. Weakens

C. The cost of attending a literature Ph.D. program in the United States has more than doubled in the past four years.
Increase in cost is some other factor rather than the interest of US students that has engendered the decline in the total no. of applications. Weakens

D. The average number of Ph.D. programs that the average Ph.D. applicant applies to has dropped from seven to four over the past four years.
Some other factor that led to drop in number of applications. Weakens

E. The number of Ph.D. programs reporting data to American College Daily has declined precipitously since the publication stopped compensating for such submissions three years ago.
Due to this reason, maybe the data stated in the argument does not correspond to the actual total number of applications and shows a lesser number. Weakens

Choice A is the answer

the applicants for literature PHD are decreasing -> reasoning : us applicants are losing interest in lit PhD program

the ones that weaken EXCEPT -> choose the one that does not weaken -> strengthen or doesn't impact the conclusion at all.

A. The average age of applicants to United States literature Ph.D. programs has changed markedly over the past four years. -> If the average age has changed, there is a chance that age has increased and hence less are eligible to apply, hence it might not be the interest that can cause this, but rather a different factor. It weakens in a particular scenario. Keep for now.

B. The number of international students applying to literature Ph.D. programs in the United States has declined by nearly half in the past four years. -> so, interest of US students can still be high -> the low applicant is because of a diff factor. -> Weakens -> Eliminate.

C. The cost of attending a literature Ph.D. program in the United States has more than doubled in the past four years. ->cost has increased -> less people able to apply -> weakens -> Eliminate.

D. The average number of Ph.D. programs that the average Ph.D. applicant applies to has dropped from seven to four over the past four years. -> It talks about PhD programs, and doesn't provide any information of the impact of PhD for Literature program. A better choice that A, as this doesn't impact the conclusion at all. Eliminate A, Keep this.

E. The number of Ph.D. programs reporting data to American College Daily has declined precipitously since the publication stopped compensating for such submissions three years ago. -> another cause for less reported applicants. so can weaken. Eliminate.

Ans. D.

Option A.

A. The average age of applicants to United States literature Ph.D. programs has changed markedly over the past four years. = the average age really doesn't matter and doesn't really weaken the conclusion so this is the right answer. Correct usage.

B. The number of international students applying to literature Ph.D. programs in the United States has declined by nearly half in the past four years. = If this is true, this weakens the conclusion. Incorrect.

C. The cost of attending a literature Ph.D. program in the United States has more than doubled in the past four years. = If the cost issue is true, this weakens the conclusion. Incorrect.

D. The average number of Ph.D. programs that the average Ph.D. applicant applies to has dropped from seven to four over the past four years. = If the average programs is reduced, this weakens the conclusion. Incorrect.

E. The number of Ph.D. programs reporting data to American College Daily has declined precipitously since the publication stopped compensating for such submissions three years ago. = If the number reported is not accurate, this weakens the conclusion. Incorrect.

Each of the past four years, the number of applications to literature Ph.D. programs in the United States has declined by more than ten percent year over year according to a recent report by American College Daily. From this statistic, it can be reasonably concluded that fewer U.S. students are interested in literature Ph.D. programs now than were four years ago.

Above argument is as follows:
Fewer US students are "interested" in literature PHD because of statistics of last 4 years which suggest a year on year declining trend in "number of applications".

Each of the following, if true, would weaken the conclusion EXCEPT:


A. The average age of applicants to United States literature Ph.D. programs has changed markedly over the past four years. Age has nothing to do with number of applications. - This choice does not weaken the conclusion.

B. The number of international students applying to literature Ph.D. programs in the United States has declined by nearly half in the past four years. Yes - it weakens the argument as international students are counted in 'number of applications' but conclusion is drawn related to US students.

C. The cost of attending a literature Ph.D. program in the United States has more than doubled in the past four years. Yes it weakens. Reason - increased cost -an alternative reason to stated reason related to lack of interest by US Students.

D. The average number of Ph.D. programs that the average Ph.D. applicant applies to has dropped from seven to four over the past four years. Yes it weakens. Reason - Reduced no. of applications per student (not the reduced number of students)-an alternative reason to stated reason related to lack of interest by US Students.

E. The number of Ph.D. programs reporting data to American College Daily has declined precipitously since the publication stopped compensating for such submissions three years ago. Yes it weakens. Reason - American College Daily is not having sufficient data to back up the conclusion.

Logical map:
4 years in a row, lit PhD program apps decline >=10% y-o-y. -> it can be reasonably concluded that fewer U.S. students are interested in lit PhD program

Pre-thinking:
Lots of needed details are missing here, luckily its an "except" with weaken question. So we need to cross out every answer that does weaken, and keep one that doesn't weaken. Top of mind would be increasing acceptance rates, more deferrals, less apps per applicant, rising cost, etc. Lets look at the answers.


A. The average age of applicants to United States literature Ph.D. programs has changed markedly over the past four years. - this has doesn't seem to have anything to do with the argument. Therefore this does not weaken it, and we cannot eliminate this answer. This is the best answer IMO.

B. The number of international students applying to literature Ph.D. programs in the United States has declined by nearly half in the past four years. - yes this weakens, fewer apps can be explained by fewer international student apps, potentially leaving U.S. students unchanged. Eliminate.

C. The cost of attending a literature Ph.D. program in the United States has more than doubled in the past four years. - yes this weakens, more expensive could mean interest is just as high but affordability is not there. Eliminate.

D. The average number of Ph.D. programs that the average Ph.D. applicant applies to has dropped from seven to four over the past four years. - yes this weakens, this explains a decline in total number of apps while not declining the interest in programs. Eliminate.

E. The number of Ph.D. programs reporting data to American College Daily has declined precipitously since the publication stopped compensating for such submissions three years ago. - yes this definitely weakens, less apps reported shows an artificial decline. Eliminate.

Conclusion: From this statistic, it can be reasonably concluded that fewer U.S. students are interested in literature Ph.D. programs now than were four years ago.

We need to find answer choices that find reasons for fewer applications or reasons that are not related to the interests of American students. Then, eliminate those choices. Whichever answer choice is left is the right one.

A. The average age of applicants to United States literature Ph.D. programs has changed markedly over the past four years. ( Incorrect: This states that may be the interest of American students is same as before however due to change in age restrictions, they cannot apply to colleges. Give an alternate reason for fewer applications, hence weaken the conclusion. Eliminate)

B. The number of international students applying to literature PhD programs in the United States has declined by nearly half in the past four years. ( Incorrect: Yes, maybe the number of American applications remained the same, however, international applications dropped. This weakens the conclusion. Eliminate)

C. The cost of attending a literature PhD program in the United States has more than doubled in the past four years. ( Incorrect: This gives an alternate reason for fewer applications. The interest might be still the same, but amercan students cant afford fees , hence not applying. Eliminate)

D. The average number of Ph.D. programs that the average Ph.D. applicant applies to has dropped from seven to four over the past four years. (Correct: HAs have no impact on the conclusion. This doesn't give a reason for lower applications, just a fact that on average the applications are low. )

E. The number of Ph.D. programs reporting data to American College Daily has declined precipitously since the publication stopped compensating for such submissions three years ago. ( Incorrect : What if the data based on which conclusion is drawn is itself incorrect. IF the programs with higher rate of applications are not reporting the figures then the data is incorrect . Weakens argument. Eliminate)

Each of the following, if true, would weaken the conclusion EXCEPT:


A. The average age of applicants to United States literature Ph.D. programs has changed markedly over the past four years. --Incorrect, if the age has changed then it is the reason not the interest as per arg

B. The number of international students applying to literature Ph.D. programs in the United States has declined by nearly half in the past four years.--Incorrect, the reduction is number from int students, so this weakens

C. The cost of attending a literature Ph.D. program in the United States has more than doubled in the past four years. --Incorrect, Cost is the reason

D. The average number of Ph.D. programs that the average Ph.D. applicant applies to has dropped from seven to four over the past four years. --Correct, No impact

E. The number of Ph.D. programs reporting data to American College Daily has declined precipitously since the publication stopped compensating for such submissions three years ago.-- Incorrect as this questions the report data

IMO : D

A is the answer.

A has no bearing on the weakened conclusion that the interest of US students has gone up.


A. The average age of applicants to United States literature Ph.D. programs has changed markedly over the past four years.-----> even if it becomes 32 from 28 what does it say about interest. nothing. Correct

B. The number of international students applying to literature Ph.D. programs in the United States has declined by nearly half in the past four years.-----> if international gone down by half and total by ~36% then ---> Local US students applications shoudl have increased

C. The cost of attending a literature Ph.D. program in the United States has more than doubled in the past four years.-----> which means that interest might be there but not applying due to higher cost of tuition

D. The average number of Ph.D. programs that the average Ph.D. applicant applies to has dropped from seven to four over the past four years.-----> Applying less but interest could still be there. Focused applications

E. The number of Ph.D. programs reporting data to American College Daily has declined precipitously since the publication stopped compensating for such submissions three years ago.-----> Data is wrong which means conclusion weakened

Option E is the correct answer IMO as it neither strengthens nor weakens the conclusion. It only means that the conclusion is not based on data that is comprehensive.

Option A : If the age has changed then it could mean more interested students are actually delaying applying to the programs. Incorrect.

Option B : This certainly weakens the conclusion. If international applicants fell by half but overall applicants fell only by more than 10%, then actually more US students are applying for these programs. Incorrect.

Option C : Weakening statement. This means cost is the factor that is affecting admissions and not students' interest. Incorrect.

Option D : This means students are still interested in the programs. But they have started to narrow down their choices. Incorrect.

My answer is (A).

Pre-thinking
In order to weaken the conclusion ("fewer U.S. students are interested in literature Ph.D. programs now than were four years ago"), we can claim
(1) "a recent report by American College Daily" is not reliable.
(2) the interest remains the same but the Ph.D. program slots are lower. (The reason for the phenomenon may have nothing to do with students' interest)

Now let's look at the option
(A) No clear link between average age and literature Ph.D. program interest.

(B) It weakens the conclusion by showing that the weakness in statistics, even if accurate, is mainly due to behavior change in international students. It seems that US applicants are on the rise.

(C) It weakens the conclusion by showing the lower number is due to financial consideration, not necessarily interest.

(D) Matches pre-think (2)

(E) Matches pre-think (1)

Each of the past four years, the number of applications to literature Ph.D. programs in the United States has declined by more than ten percent year over year according to a recent report by American College Daily. From this statistic, it can be reasonably concluded that fewer U.S. students are interested in literature Ph.D. programs now than were four years ago.

Each of the following, if true, would weaken the conclusion EXCEPT:

We have to find out the argument that strengthens the conclusion that fewer U.S. students are interested in literature Ph.D. programs now than were four years ago.

A. The average age of applicants to United States literature Ph.D. programs has changed markedly over the past four years.
The age does not matter here.

B. The number of international students applying to literature Ph.D. programs in the United States has declined by nearly half in the past four years.
International students does not matter here, onlu U.S. students.

C. The cost of attending a literature Ph.D. program in the United States has more than doubled in the past four years.
Correct

D. The average number of Ph.D. programs that the average Ph.D. applicant applies to has dropped from seven to four over the past four years.
We are talking about literature Ph.D. programs not Ph.D. programs in general.

E. The number of Ph.D. programs reporting data to American College Daily has declined precipitously since the publication stopped compensating for such submissions three years ago.
We are talking about literature Ph.D. programs not Ph.D. programs in general.

IMO C

My answer is A).

We are trying to weaken the conclusion that the # of U.S. students interested in literature PhD has declined, based on the evidence of # of applications declined a lot over the past 4 years.

A) - Too many loops to jump through to use this to weaken the conclusion. First off, we don't know the direction of change for the age of applicants. Secondly, knowing the age change, what does that have anything to do with interest level? Not clear at all. Hold on to A).

B) - Yes this weakens. Notice the evidence is # of applications, and the conclusion is U.S. students' interest. If international applications halved, that would expose this gap in logic and weaken the conclusion. So B) is out.

C) - This option provides an alternative explanation to the decline in applications. Perhaps instead of a drop in interest level, prospective applicants are dissuaded by the high cost. C) is out.

D) - Yes this also weakens, by using similar approaches as B) - exposing the gap in logic and directly attacking this link. D) is out.

E) - Yes this also weakens. By providing an alternative explanation to the drop in reported #s. E) is out.

So A).

A. The average age of applicants to United States literature Ph.D. programs has changed markedly over the past four years.

Average age might be out of scope

B. The number of international students applying to literature Ph.D. programs in the United States has declined by nearly half in the past four years.

Weakens it. Since it means american applicants increased to compensate the drop so incorrect

C. The cost of attending a literature Ph.D. program in the United States has more than doubled in the past four years.

Assuming cost has a negative correlation with applicant, this might be the answer

D. The average number of Ph.D. programs that the average Ph.D. applicant applies to has dropped from seven to four over the past four years.

Weakens it. As there would be around 40% drop if applicants were same number. So incorrect

E. The number of Ph.D. programs reporting data to American College Daily has declined precipitously since the publication stopped compensating for such submissions three years ago.

Weakens it. It means data is missing compared to previous years. So incorrect

C is the answer