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MartyMurray I didn't understand why B as an answer got eliminated. What I presumed was that if there are reliable tests that will allow prosinopsis to be diagnosed in its earliest stages then probably people being diagnosed won't take the risk of driving because prosinopsis as a disease reduces peripheral vision. If there are better and reliable tests, there would be effective and reliable results and people would take precautions (like not driving)

Can you help me understand where exactly am I going wrong and how should I modify my thought process
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Jayam12
MartyMurray I didn't understand why B as an answer got eliminated. What I presumed was that if there are reliable tests that will allow prosinopsis to be diagnosed in its earliest stages then probably people being diagnosed won't take the risk of driving because prosinopsis as a disease reduces peripheral vision. If there are better and reliable tests, there would be effective and reliable results and people would take precautions (like not driving)

Can you help me understand where exactly am I going wrong and how should I modify my thought process
­Hi Jayam12.

You ran too far with what choice (B) says.

Here's (B):

    B. There are reliable tests that will allow prosinopsis to be diagnosed even in its earliest stages.

Here's what you assumed:

    The fact that there is a reliable test for prosinopsis means that people commonly get tested for prosinopsis.

    The fact that someone has been diagnosed with prosinopsis means that the person will decide not to drive before the person's peripheral vision has sufficiently deteriorated to cause the person to crash while driving.

Notice that we don't know that any of the above is true. In fact, we don't even know for sure that people believe that prosinopsis related issues can result in car crashes. Only the argument says that.

Furthermore, notice that the passage indicates that people experiencing prosinopsis DO DRIVE. So, we cannot weaken the argument using information that suggests that they don't drive.

Thus, the fact that they could be tested, could learn that they are experiencing prosinopsis, and therefore could stop driving has no effect on the argument since, apparently, they don't.­
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Understanding the argument - ­
Among people in Tiravia who had a fatal car accident while driving, 5 percent of those under 50 years old were found to have prosinopsis, a currently untreatable eye disease that causes a gradual deterioration in peripheral vision. - Background info. Basically, it says, for example, if there are 200 people who get into fatal car accidents, say 100 are below 50 and 100 are above 50. So 5% of these under 50, which is five people, have prosinopsis. 

Yet, according to medical records, only 3 percent ofTiravians under 50 have been diagnosed with prosinopsis. - Contrast. Overall, amongst under 50 population, only 3% have prosinopsis. 

Therefore, when a Tiravian driver under 50 has prosinopsis, the disease significantly increases the likelihood that the driver will have a fatal car accident. - Conclusion. Cause and effect. prosinopsis causes people to have fatal car accidents. 

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?

A. People who have prosinopsis in its later stages are generally unable to drive because of the marked deterioration in their peripheral vision caused by the disease. - strengthener. 

B. There are reliable tests that will allow prosinopsis to be diagnosed even in its earliest stages. - At best, a strengthener. 

C. When prosinopsis is in its early stages, its effects are detectable only by means of laboratory tests, which few Tiravians under 50 undergo. - ok. It means that there may be a possibility that 50% of Tiravians under 50 have prosinopsis, but only 5% get into fatal accidents. The relation between prosinopsis and fatal car accidents is seriously weakened as the remaining 45% don't undergo any fatal accidents. This question's essence is pointing out that the 3% number may be much lower, thus weakening the causal connection. 

D. Although a large majority of Tiravians who have been diagnosed with prosinopsis are over 50, many are in their 30s and 40s. - Out of scope. 

E. Prosinopsis causes no significant deterioration in a person’s vision other than the deterioration in peripheral vision. - But then our concern is "peripheral vision" only because that's what is causing the fatal accidents under 50 years of age. So, whether peripheral causes any other significant deterioration in a person's vision is out of scope. 
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Hi MartyMurray,

Still finding it difficult to accept C. Question stem's premise is that a higher proportion (5% vs 3%) of drivers involved in accidents have P.
Therefore, P increases likelihood of fatal car accident.

(C): So what if P is only diagnosed after individuals get into accidents? It still shows that they had P but only found out about it later. Though it is unclear whether they had P before the accident or after.
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­Among people in Tiravia who had a fatal car accident while driving, 5 percent of those under 50 years old were found to have prosinopsis, a currently untreatable eye disease that causes a gradual deterioration in peripheral vision. Yet, according to medical records, only 3 percent ofTiravians under 50 have been diagnosed with prosinopsis. Therefore, when a Tiravian driver under 50 has prosinopsis, the disease significantly increases the likelihood that the driver will have a fatal car accident.

The passage presents an argument with the following conclusion:

when a Tiravian driver under 50 has prosinopsis, the disease significantly increases the likelihood that the driver will have a fatal car accident

The reasoning of the argument is that, since a greater percentage of people under 50 involved in accidents, 5 percent, than of people under 50 in the general population, 3 percent, have been found to have prosinopsis, it must be that the disease causes people to have accidents.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?

The correct answer will somehow indicate that, even though it's true that a greater percentage of people involved in accidents than of people in the general population have been found to have prosinopsis, it may not be the case that the disease causes people to have accidents.

A. People who have prosinopsis in its later stages are generally unable to drive because of the marked deterioration in their peripheral vision caused by the disease.

If anything, this choice strengthens, rather than weakens, the argument.

After all, if what this choice says is true, then it's clearly the case that the deterioration associated with prosinopsis can render people unable to drive effectively. So, it could be that, even when the disease is not "in its later stages," people who are experiencing it lose some ability to drive safely and, as a result, get into accidents.

Eliminate.

B. There are reliable tests that will allow prosinopsis to be diagnosed even in its earliest stages.

We already know from the passage that prosinopsis can be diagnosed. So, all this choice adds is that it can be diagnosed in its earliest stages.

The fact that it can be diagnosed in its earliest stages doesn't mean that it doesn't cause people to have accidents. After all, regardless of when it can be diagnosed, at some point in its progression, it could cause people to have accidents, and the evidence provided seems to indicate that it does.

Eliminate.

C. When prosinopsis is in its early stages, its effects are detectable only by means of laboratory tests, which few Tiravians under 50 undergo.

This has to be one of the least obvious Critical Reasoning correct answers I've seen. To see why this choice is correct, we have to make the following connections.

The accidents discussed in the passage are "fatal car accidents." So, using our common knowledge of the world, we can decide that it's reasonable that these accidents will be investigated.

In that case, "laboratory tests" may be done, in which case the driver may be "found" to have been experiencing prosinopsis. Notice that the passage doesn't say that these drivers had been "diagnosed" with prosinopsis. So, they were somehow "found" to have been experiencing prosinopsis after they crashed, and a logical way that finding would occur would be through laboratory testing.

So, in that case, we have an alternative explanation for the slightly higher incidence of prosinopsis in people who have fatal car accidents. That explanation is that, it may not be that the deterioration associated with prosinopsis causes accidents but, rather, that being in an accident causes a person to be more likely to be found to have been experiencing prosinopsis. After all, according to this choice, "few Tiravians under 50 undergo" testing for prosinopsis. So, it makes sense that laboratory testing done after a crash would reveal prosinopsis in a greater percentage of people than are normally diagnosed with the disease.

So, this choice weakens the case for the conclusion by indicating that something other than prosinopsis causing accidents could be what's going on.

Keep.

D. Although a large majority of Tiravians who have been diagnosed with prosinopsis are over 50, many are in their 30s and 40s.

This choice has no effect on the strength of the argument.

For one thing, we already know from the passage that 3 percent of people under 50 are diagnosed with prosinopsis.

Furthermore, the fact that people in their 30s and 40s specifically are diagnosed with prosinopsis doesn't indicate in any way that prosinopsis doesn't cause people to have accidents because there's nothing specific to people of those ages that's related to crashing cars.

In fact, if anything, this choice strengthens the argument by serving to rule out that people of a certain age group that would be more likely to get into accidents, such as drivers under 18, are most of the people diagnosed with prosinopsis. So, this choice helps to confirm that the deterioration associated with prosinopsis, and not the way people in a particular age group drive, is responsible for the accidents.

Eliminate.

E. Prosinopsis causes no significant deterioration in a person’s vision other than the deterioration in peripheral vision.

This choice could appear to weaken the argument by indicating that maybe prosinopsis doesn't do enough to vision to cause accidents. In other words, we might be tempted to think that, if prosinopsis causes no significant deterioration in a person’s vision other than the deterioration in peripheral vision, people who are experiencing prosinopsis should be able to drive safely and that, therefore, the crashes are not due to people's experiencing prosinopsis.

At the same time, the truth is that this choice doesn't change the fact that prosinopsis does affect vision, and thus could affect driving ability.

Also, this choice doesn't weaken the support provided by the fact that a greater percentage of people inolved in accidents than of people in the general population have been found to have prosinopsis. Regardless of how prosinopsis affects vision, that information supports the conclusion.

Eliminate.

Correct answer: C­
­
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Quote:
Among people in Tiravia who had a fatal car accident while driving, 5 percent of those under 50 years old were found to have prosinopsis, a currently untreatable eye disease that causes a gradual deterioration in peripheral vision. Yet, according to medical records, only 3 percent ofTiravians under 50 have been diagnosed with prosinopsis. Therefore, when a Tiravian driver under 50 has prosinopsis, the disease significantly increases the likelihood that the driver will have a fatal car accident.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?

A. People who have prosinopsis in its later stages are generally unable to drive because of the marked deterioration in their peripheral vision caused by the disease.

B. There are reliable tests that will allow prosinopsis to be diagnosed even in its earliest stages.

C. When prosinopsis is in its early stages, its effects are detectable only by means of laboratory tests, which few Tiravians under 50 undergo.

D. Although a large majority of Tiravians who have been diagnosed with prosinopsis are over 50, many are in their 30s and 40s.

E. Prosinopsis causes no significant deterioration in a person’s vision other than the deterioration in peripheral vision.
 @DmitryFarber @AjiteshArun  Is my reasoning correct? 
Let's say there are 100 people who had a fatal car accident while driving
And let's say under 50 years old= 60
Premise:
5 percent of those under 50 years old with prosinopsis= 3
3 percent of those under 50 who diagnosed with prosinopsis= approx 2 in 60

Conclusion: when a Tiravian driver under 50 has prosinopsis, the disease significantly increases the likelihood that the driver will have a fatal car accident.

Now the gap is what if for some reason all the people with prosinopsis were not diagnosed? What is that 3% is not the right representation of percentage of people who actually have prosinopsis? What if that percentage is not 3 but somewhat higher ? I thought maybe option C exploits this possibility.­
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Bunuel
­Among people in Tiravia who had a fatal car accident while driving, 5 percent of those under 50 years old were found to have prosinopsis, a currently untreatable eye disease that causes a gradual deterioration in peripheral vision. Yet, according to medical records, only 3 percent ofTiravians under 50 have been diagnosed with prosinopsis. Therefore, when a Tiravian driver under 50 has prosinopsis, the disease significantly increases the likelihood that the driver will have a fatal car accident.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?

A. People who have prosinopsis in its later stages are generally unable to drive because of the marked deterioration in their peripheral vision caused by the disease.

B. There are reliable tests that will allow prosinopsis to be diagnosed even in its earliest stages.

C. When prosinopsis is in its early stages, its effects are detectable only by means of laboratory tests, which few Tiravians under 50 undergo.

D. Although a large majority of Tiravians who have been diagnosed with prosinopsis are over 50, many are in their 30s and 40s.

E. Prosinopsis causes no significant deterioration in a person’s vision other than the deterioration in peripheral vision.


Attachment:
GMAT-Club-Forum-pmsrchv9.png

Premises:

­Among fatal car accidents while driving, 5 percent of those under 50 years old were found to have P.
But only 3 percent of Tiravians under 50 have been diagnosed with P.

Conclusion: When a Tiravian driver under 50 has P, the disease significantly increases the likelihood that the driver will have a fatal car accident.

Here is the logic of the conclusion - Only below 50 years are in our scope so forget others. 3% people have been diagnosed with P. So in any unbiased collection of below 50 years old people, we would have 3% people with P. But if we look at fatal car accidents of people who were driving, their % is 5, not 3. This means P impacts their driving ability and people with P are more likely to get into fatal car accidents if they drive.

What will weaken it? What if "3% people are diagnosed with it" does not mean "3% people have it." If it can be diagnosed only by a lab test and people generally do not go for the lab test, then perhaps there are 5% (or even more) people under 50 who have it. Then the 3% number is irrelevant. We are not given that 3% people have the disease. We are given that 3% are diagnosed. We don't know anything of the undiagnosed cases. Hence it is possible that P does not lead to higher chances of fatal car accidents. This is what (C) says.

C. When prosinopsis is in its early stages, its effects are detectable only by means of laboratory tests, which few Tiravians under 50 undergo.


A. People who have prosinopsis in its later stages are generally unable to drive because of the marked deterioration in their peripheral vision caused by the disease.

This means that people with late stage P are not even driving. And still P cases are higher % in fatal accidents. If anything it strengthens the argument.

B. There are reliable tests that will allow prosinopsis to be diagnosed even in its earliest stages.

Availability of tests is irrelevant. The point is - are people taking the tests?

D. Although a large majority of Tiravians who have been diagnosed with prosinopsis are over 50, many are in their 30s and 40s.

'Many' tells us nothing. We already know that 3% have been diagnosed. Those over 50 years of age are irrelevant to us.

E. Prosinopsis causes no significant deterioration in a person’s vision other than the deterioration in peripheral vision.

Irrelevant. Peripheral vision could be the one causing the issue in driving.

Answer (C)

Here are some discussions on weaken questions:
https://youtu.be/EhZ8FKkfy0k
https://youtu.be/tnFX99OpyYs
https://youtu.be/XCBp62o70Eg
https://youtu.be/55QgRwZmFRo
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I had a different reasoning for landing at C. If its not detectable without a lab test - means the symptoms are not visible - means they may have the disease but to not that intensity where it decreases it really worst. And so this is a weakener - that maybe this is not the reason - if it was ppl could detect it without the tests.....
Not sure where am I wrong - why are CRs so confusing :(
Quote:

Premises:

­Among fatal car accidents while driving, 5 percent of those under 50 years old were found to have P.
But only 3 percent of Tiravians under 50 have been diagnosed with P.

Conclusion: When a Tiravian driver under 50 has P, the disease significantly increases the likelihood that the driver will have a fatal car accident.

Here is the logic of the conclusion - Only below 50 years are in our scope so forget others. 3% people have been diagnosed with P. So in any unbiased collection of below 50 years old people, we would have 3% people with P. But if we look at fatal car accidents of people who were driving, their % is 5, not 3. This means P impacts their driving ability and people with P are more likely to get into fatal car accidents if they drive.

What will weaken it? What if "3% people are diagnosed with it" does not mean "3% people have it." If it can be diagnosed only by a lab test and people generally do not go for the lab test, then perhaps there are 5% (or even more) people under 50 who have it. Then the 3% number is irrelevant. We are not given that 3% people have the disease. We are given that 3% are diagnosed. We don't know anything of the undiagnosed cases. Hence it is possible that P does not lead to higher chances of fatal car accidents. This is what (C) says.

C. When prosinopsis is in its early stages, its effects are detectable only by means of laboratory tests, which few Tiravians under 50 undergo.


A. People who have prosinopsis in its later stages are generally unable to drive because of the marked deterioration in their peripheral vision caused by the disease.

This means that people with late stage P are not even driving. And still P cases are higher % in fatal accidents. If anything it strengthens the argument.

B. There are reliable tests that will allow prosinopsis to be diagnosed even in its earliest stages.

Availability of tests is irrelevant. The point is - are people taking the tests?

D. Although a large majority of Tiravians who have been diagnosed with prosinopsis are over 50, many are in their 30s and 40s.

'Many' tells us nothing. We already know that 3% have been diagnosed. Those over 50 years of age are irrelevant to us.

E. Prosinopsis causes no significant deterioration in a person’s vision other than the deterioration in peripheral vision.

Irrelevant. Peripheral vision could be the one causing the issue in driving.

Answer (C)

Here are some discussions on weaken questions:
https://youtu.be/EhZ8FKkfy0k
https://youtu.be/tnFX99OpyYs
https://youtu.be/XCBp62o70Eg
https://youtu.be/55QgRwZmFRo
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Why C weakens the argument most

C. When prosinopsis is in its early stages, its effects are detectable only by means of laboratory tests, which few Tiravians under 50 undergo.

This tells us something crucial:

Many under-50 Tiravians may have prosinopsis but are undiagnosed

So the true percentage of under-50 Tiravians with prosinopsis could be much higher than 3%

If the real base rate is closer to 5%, then:

The fact that 5% of fatal-accident victims had prosinopsis is not surprising

And does NOT show increased risk

👉 The comparison (5% vs 3%) is misleading because the 3% is artificially low

This directly destroys the statistical basis of the conclusion.
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I think the faster way to deal with such types of questions is MATH
His entire assumptions is in layman terms out of 3 % there are 5 % who are found in fatal accident which is higher than the normal people (out of 97 % there 95 percent in fatal accident )
To weaken this think in layman terms again.
Possible ways -
1) Either you prove 5 % is not the actual no cases - they are less - which means people have been misdiagnosed.(Find something like this in the options)
2) Or 3 % cases are not correct there could higher no of cases - people have been not diagnosed. In this case also your ratio will decrease compared to normal people involved in fatal accident.


Options will tell you 2nd one is there exactly what is C option is
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I had a different reasoning for landing at C. If its not detectable without a lab test - means the symptoms are not visible - means they may have the disease but to not that intensity where it decreases it really worst. And so this is a weakener - that maybe this is not the reason - if it was ppl could detect it without the tests.....
Not sure where am I wrong - why are CRs so confusing :(

I agree, CR is indeed very confusing. Actually, your reasoning goes wrong because Choice C is about underdiagnosis, not disease severity. If many people have prosinopsis but aren't diagnosed, then the true prevalence is higher than 3%, making the comparison (5% vs. 3%) invalid and weakening the conclusion.
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Just an attempt­

Among people in Tiravia who had a fatal car accident while driving, 5 percent of those under 50 years old were found to have prosinopsis, a currently untreatable eye disease that causes a gradual deterioration in peripheral vision. Yet, according to medical records, only 3 percent of Tiravians under 50 have been diagnosed with prosinopsis. Therefore, when a Tiravian driver under 50 has prosinopsis, the disease significantly increases the likelihood that the driver will have a fatal car accident.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?

Firstly, find the exact conclusion: when a Tiravian driver under 50 has prosinopsis, the disease significantly increases the likelihood that the driver will have a fatal car accident.
To weaken, we need to find an option somehow implies: even if the driver has prosinopsis, it does not mean that the disease will significantly increase the likelihood of having a fatal car accident.

A. People who have prosinopsis in its later stages are generally unable to drive because of the marked deterioration in their peripheral vision caused by the disease. Out. You can't drive at all? then, accidents or the likelihood does not even come into the picture.

B. There are reliable tests that will allow prosinopsis to be diagnosed even in its earliest stages. Okay lets say we are able to diagnose it. Then what? The option does not give any information on the likelihood of the fatal accident. Read options as is. Out.

C. When prosinopsis is in its early stages, its effects are detectable only by means of laboratory tests, which few Tiravians under 50 undergo. If you paraphrase this, it simply says: Very few people under 50 undergo lab tests which detect the disease in it's early stages. Less people undergo tests = less diagnosis. Therefore, you cant tell with certainty if drivers (in general) under 50 have prosinopsis or not (cause only a few get tested). So you cant conclude that the disease significantly increases the likelihood that the driver will have a fatal car accident.

D. Although a large majority of Tiravians who have been diagnosed with prosinopsis are over 50, many are in their 30s and 40s. Out of scope, this is restating some part of the stem by adding more data which isn't meaningful. We already know that the 5% and 3% relate to people under 50. How many of them are in 30s and 40s is irrelevant. Plus, no info is given on increase or decrease in likelihood of an accident at all

E. Prosinopsis causes no significant deterioration in a person’s vision other than the deterioration in peripheral vision. Out of scope cause it does not give information about increase or decrease in likelihood of an accident at all. You cant make assumptions here
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