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The following appeared in a proposal for a high school's annual fundraising event:
"In order to earn the most money for supplemental school programs, we will have larger and more thrilling rides at this year's School Fair, including a ferris wheel that is twice as tall as last year's ferris wheel. In addition, the game vendors will award more expensive prizes and the food stalls will showcase a variety of upscale international dishes. As a result, we will be able to charge a higher entrance fee and the dollar amount we earn via our commission on the vendors' revenues will be higher than it was last year."
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. Point out flaws in the argument's logic and analyze the argument's underlying assumptions. In addition, evaluate how supporting evidence is used and what evidence might counter the argument's conclusion. You may also discuss what additional evidence could be used to strengthen the argument or what changes would make the argument more logically sound.
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This argument has several flaws and its reasoning is weak. The argument claims that the School Fair will increase its revenue by charging higher entrance fees on the back of having more thrilling rides, including a much larger Ferris Wheel, and more expensive prizes. The Fair organizers also assume the sale of upscale international dishes in the food stalls will be sold at higher prices than the previous food offerings.
The first flaw is that the argument is based on assumptions for which there is no evidence. Will potential visitors be attracted by more thrilling rides? To know this, we would need to know the demographics of the potential visitors. If the majority of potential visitors are parents with young children, “more thrilling” rides could be scary and of no interest.
The second flaw is the assumption that the potential visitors have the disposable income to allow them to pay higher prices. If the school is in a deprived area, a
big cost difference compared to previous events could deter a significant proportion of the potential visitors.
The third assumption that weakens the claim concerns the showcasing of “a variety of upscale international dishes.” The question arises of whether the showcasing will convert into actual sales, and in what volume. In addition, do we know if the potential visitors will be attracted to “upscale international dishes or would they prefer traditional food offerings at School Fairs?
The final assumption is that the number of tickets and volume of food sold at the higher prices will be sufficient to surpass the income of the previous year’s Fair.
Overall, the argument is weak because it relies on unsubstantiated assumptions. The argument could be strengthened by including information about the population who could be attracted to the Fair. This could be achieved via a parent survey among the school’s local catchment population to know:
*attitudes to “thrill” levels
*how many people from their family would visit and their ages
*likely spending budget per person
*attitudes to food offerings