guerrero25
A recent study compared property crime rates on various streets in a metropolitan city with the amount of traffic on them and their ease of access. Although some believe that burglary is more common in low-trafiic areas,the study showed that a house on a main road was more likely to be burglarized than one of comparable value on a less frequently traveled street requiring many turns to be reached .
Which of the following ,if true, would best explain the results of the study ?
A) Burglars generally avoid residences with home security systems,which are more common in busy metropolitan areas.
B) Burglars in metropolitan areas who steal large, bulky items generally drive to the houses they intend to burglarize
c)Two weeks after a given burglary , the likelihood of another's accruing greatly increases for any house within a half-mile radius
D)Burglars spend most of their time performing routine , non criminal activities and will usually commit crimes on streets they frequently travel.
E)Burglars in urban environments often share information about which neighborhoods they are unlikely to be apprehended in .
Study: A house on a main road was more likely to be burglarized than one of comparable value on a less frequently traveled street requiring many turns to be reached.
What would explain this? How can we explain why burglars hit main road houses more often?
A) Burglars generally avoid residences with home security systems,which are more common in busy metropolitan areas.
This should be a reason to not hit main road houses.
B) Burglars in metropolitan areas who steal large, bulky items generally drive to the houses they intend to burglarize
Burglars drive to the house. A house in a non busy area may actually be easier to drive to because of less traffic though the route may be longer because of many turns. Also, during getaway, it might be easy to lose a trail when there are many turns or it may be easier to drive off the main road. Or due to traffic on main road, getting away may not be easier. The point is we can't say how a location on the main road vs a location that comes after many turns impacts the burglars' plan. At best, we can keep this option in mind for now.
c)Two weeks after a given burglary , the likelihood of another's accruing greatly increases for any house within a half-mile radius
This would be true for either location so irrelevant.
D)Burglars spend most of their time performing routine , non criminal activities and will usually commit crimes on streets they frequently travel.
Correct. This gives us a reason why high frequented streets (main roads) are hit more often. Burglars normally perform routine tasks. They commit crimes on streets they know well. It is much more likely that people visit main roads more frequently (they are more frequently traveled streets) so it is more likely that burglars (say 0.1% of the population) also travel to those more frequently for their routine jobs. Hence these streets are hit more often too.
E)Burglars in urban environments often share information about which neighborhoods they are unlikely to be apprehended in .
We don't know whether main roads are "neighborhoods they are unlikely to be apprehended in"
Answer (D)
How can we assume that the main roads are the roads that the burglars "frequently travel" ? They could very well be the roads in low-traffic areas. The frequently or less-frequently travelled is a property of the roads (in a way). Just because a road is frequently travelled or used, it doesn't necessarily means that those roads would
. What am I missing ? Aren't we implying a causal relationship, which may not be true? As you explained, "it is highly likely" but how can we be 100% sure ?