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Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139

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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139  [#permalink]

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New post 15 Mar 2009, 06:55
1
Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who is unemployed.

Sharon: But a normal, moderate level of unemployment is 5 percent, with 1 out of 20 workers unemployed. So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 workers, 1 or more will very likely to be unemployed.

Sharon's argument relies on the assumption that

Explanation:
------------------------
1.) normal levels of unemployment are rarely exceeded. ---> Irrelevant.

2.) unemployment is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of population. ---> When Sharon puts her point, she’s actually trying to say that if you ask any person (anywhere), he/she must be knowing someone (5% of acquaintances) who’s unemployed. This is based on the assumption stated in this option.

Had that not been the case, the argument would have fallen apart. If unemployed people are concentrated in specific regions, then only the residents of that region will be aware of the unemployed people.

3.) the number of people who each know someone who is unemployed is always higher than 90% of the population.
---> She is nowhere trying to assume this.

4.) Roland is not consciously distorting the statistics he presents ---> This option states that Roland is actually distorting the fact (though not consciously) but we cannot conclude this from their conversation. In fact, Sharon is not disagreeing with Roland’s stats. Anyways, this is not the assumption she relies on.

5.) knowledge that a personal acquaintance is unemployed generates more fear of loosing one's job than does knowledge of unemployment statistics ---> Irrelevant.
------------------------

I too go for option 2.


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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139  [#permalink]

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New post 15 Mar 2009, 08:05
Thanks...
I always like yr Logic and the way you tackle "all options" :)
+1 to you
Technext wrote:
Roland:
I too go for option 2.


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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139  [#permalink]

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New post 14 May 2010, 01:28
+1 for B.

Even though the explaination given above is great in terms of numerical terms but if someone finds it peculiar then try this:

Sharon says - 5% i.e., one out of 20 workers unemployed. So at any given time if a
person knows approximately 50 workers, one or more will very likely be unemployed.

If you look at the strong reasoning given by her that out of 50, atleast one will be unemployed that means the umemployment is homogeneous in the stated population.

If you still feel the heat, just try the negation test :)
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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139  [#permalink]

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New post 24 Apr 2011, 07:36
Hi,

Roland's statement doesn't seem to contribute anything to the argument. Is it there just to confuse us and complicate the question? I was trying to relate Sharon's conclusion to Roland's statement.

Is such questions can the premise to a conclusion occur in the someone else's statement?

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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139  [#permalink]

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New post 04 Jun 2011, 05:39
OG 12: CR #71
Can someone explain the reasoning to the OA?

Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who is unemployed.

Sharon: But a normal, moderate level of unemployment is 5 percent, with one out of 20
workers unemployed. So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 workers, one or more will very likely be unemployed.

Sharon’s argument relies on the assumption that

(A) normal levels of unemployment are rarely exceeded
(B) unemployment is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of the population
(C) the number of people who each know someone who is unemployed is always higher than 90 percent of the population
(D) Roland is not consciously distorting the statistics he presents
(E) knowledge that a personal acquaintance is unemployed generates more fear of losing one’s job than does knowledge of unemployment statistics
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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139  [#permalink]

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New post 04 Jun 2011, 06:30
Let's deny assumption in B and say we have 20 equal isolated regions with 5% of the total population each. Now, let's assume one of 20 regions has 100% unemployment and others - 0%. If it's true, only 5% people know other people who are unemployed and Sharon’s argument is false.
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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139  [#permalink]

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New post 16 Jun 2011, 12:25
IanStewart wrote:
nitindas wrote:
Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who is unemployed.
Sharon: But a normal,moderate level of unemployment is 5 percent,with 1 out of 20 workers unemployed.So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 workers,1 or more will very likely to be unemployed.

Sharon's argument relies on the assumption that
1. normal levels of unemployment are rarely exceeded.
2. unemployment is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of population.
3. the number of people who each know someone who is unemployed is always higher than 90% of the population.
4. Roland is not consciously distorting the statistics he presents
5. knowledge that a personal acquaintance is unemployed generates more fear of loosing one's job than does knowledge of unemployment statistics


It should be B. Imagine you have the following situation:

a town of 50,000 has 100% unemployment, and no one in this town speaks to anyone else in the country
the other 950,000 people in the country, or 95% of the population, all have jobs

Then only 5% of your population would know anyone who was unemployed - the 5% in the isolated town full of unemployed people. Sharon's argument assumes that unemployment is spread fairly equally across the population.


IanStewart:
How do you justify the fact stated by Roland then? Shouldn't that be true at the same time?
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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139  [#permalink]

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New post 16 Jun 2011, 15:07
B, if you negate B it will sink the conclusion... so it is the only right answer...
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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139  [#permalink]

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New post 27 Jul 2011, 08:12
71. Roland: the alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who is unemployed.

Sharon: but a normal, moderate level of unemployment is 5 percent, with one out of 20 workers unemployed. So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 workers, one or more will very likely be unemployed.



Sharon's argument relies on the assumption that

a) Normal levels of unemployment are rarely exceeded.

b) Unemployed is not normally concertrated in geographically isolated segments of the population.

c) The number of people who each know someone who is unemployed is always higher than 90 percent of the population

d) Roland is not consciously distorting the statistics he presents

e) Knowledge that a personal acquaintance is unemployed generates more fear of losing ones' job than does knowledge of unemployment statistics.


Why C is not the case? Uh? Since it is said that " Higher than 90% of the population", this can totally indicate that one person knows 50 workers, one or more will like be umemployed. Why, why why?why??????
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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139  [#permalink]

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New post 27 Jul 2011, 08:35
C is not an assumption, it is an outcome parallel to arguement.

B, if the concentration of unemployment is concentrated in a specific area, then some people living in certain areas will know lower than average number of unemployed citizens.
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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139  [#permalink]

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New post 27 Jul 2011, 11:09
To find one unemployed person out of every 20 people, we need the distribution of unemployed people to be even among the population which is what is emphasized in B.

Sharon in effect is saying that the normal level of unemployment itself is higher assuming we have an even distribution.

So C could be a conclusion assuming B.
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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139  [#permalink]

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New post 27 Jul 2011, 21:33
I just have an idea that the population of people who knows other umemployed higher than 90% , I think at some level it is assumption of the argument because only higher than 90%, they know someone is employed, if you are not higher than 90%, including those 10% (100%-90%) that they won't other is employed.

why do I have this thought, why am I wrong about this answer?



RivaM wrote:
To find one unemployed person out of every 20 people, we need the distribution of unemployed people to be even among the population which is what is emphasized in B.

Sharon in effect is saying that the normal level of unemployment itself is higher assuming we have an even distribution.

So C could be a conclusion assuming B.
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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139  [#permalink]

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New post 27 Jul 2011, 21:34
I'm sorry, the last one is " unemployed"~

tracyyahoo wrote:
I just have an idea that the population of people who knows other umemployed higher than 90% , I think at some level it is assumption of the argument because only higher than 90%, they know someone is employed, if you are not higher than 90%, including those 10% (100%-90%) that they won't other is employed.

why do I have this thought, why am I wrong about this answer?



RivaM wrote:
To find one unemployed person out of every 20 people, we need the distribution of unemployed people to be even among the population which is what is emphasized in B.

Sharon in effect is saying that the normal level of unemployment itself is higher assuming we have an even distribution.

So C could be a conclusion assuming B.
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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139  [#permalink]

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New post 22 Aug 2011, 13:15
C is wrong because C is one of the premises in the argument. It is NOT an assumption that links the other premise with the conclusion. Also the conclusion would still be valid if choice C is negated. Hence, C is incorrect.

Dialogue CR present subtle reasoning. The line of reasoning to the conclusion is based ONLY on Sharon's claims. she says that 5 % unemployment is normal level. i.e. One person out of every 20 people is unemployed. Knowing such a person implies that these people are uniformly distributed among the acquaintance circle of employed people. The correct choice does go a little overboard in that it assumes that geographical remoteness is the only cause. For eg. we can even assume that unemployed poeple do not socialise with employed people or in general are not educated or don't fall in the same circle for aby reason. but this is the choice that is closest to being correct! Rest ones are not linked with the conclusion
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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139  [#permalink]

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New post 22 Aug 2011, 13:28
In other words,

Sharon's reasoning is merely based upon the statistics that moderate level of unemployment is 5 percent, with one out of 20 workers unemployed.

Conclusion: So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 workers, one or more will very likely be unemployed.

Even if we were to assume that Roland's claim 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who is unemployed were not true or not presented, Sharon's line of reasoning would not change!

The first part here is quite redundant.
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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139  [#permalink]

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New post 23 Feb 2012, 12:18
IanStewart wrote:
nitindas wrote:
Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who is unemployed.
Sharon: But a normal,moderate level of unemployment is 5 percent,with 1 out of 20 workers unemployed.So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 workers,1 or more will very likely to be unemployed.

Sharon's argument relies on the assumption that
1. normal levels of unemployment are rarely exceeded.
2. unemployment is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of population.
3. the number of people who each know someone who is unemployed is always higher than 90% of the population.
4. Roland is not consciously distorting the statistics he presents
5. knowledge that a personal acquaintance is unemployed generates more fear of loosing one's job than does knowledge of unemployment statistics


It should be B. Imagine you have the following situation:

a town of 50,000 has 100% unemployment, and no one in this town speaks to anyone else in the country
the other 950,000 people in the country, or 95% of the population, all have jobs

Then only 5% of your population would know anyone who was unemployed - the 5% in the isolated town full of unemployed people. Sharon's argument assumes that unemployment is spread fairly equally across the population.


Isn't option B) out of scope. I agree that assumption is never stated but this option seems clearly out of scope
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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139  [#permalink]

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New post 05 Mar 2012, 12:42
I also feel option B is out of scope, could some please explain?

Thanks
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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139  [#permalink]

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New post 28 Mar 2012, 10:06
Hi All,

Please help answer below

1. Could you tell me how the negation test works here.

Please let me know I am confused.

Thanks
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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139  [#permalink]

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New post 21 Apr 2013, 01:46
All duplicate threads on this topic have been merged.

Please check and follow the Guidelines for Posting in Verbal GMAT forum before posting anything.
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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139  [#permalink]

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New post 04 Sep 2013, 23:08
B is fair enough but what is exactly wrong with D? Could someone please explain
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Re: Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the-OG10#139 &nbs [#permalink] 04 Sep 2013, 23:08

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