The goal is to find the option that most strengthens the conclusion: Orcas were most likely the immediate cause of the otter population decline.
The argument is structured as follows:
Observation: Otter population declined sharply (1980-2000).
Elimination of Causes: No disease or malnutrition. Conclusion: Predation increased.
Evidence for Orca Predation:
Orcas eat otters when their normal prey (seals) are scarce.
The seal population in the area declined dramatically in the 1980s.
Conclusion: Therefore, orcas were the most likely immediate cause.
To strengthen the argument, we need a piece of evidence that directly links the decline in the otter population to the presence or activity of orcas, or that eliminates an alternative cause related to predation.
Let's analysis each answer choice
(A) The population of sea urchins, the main food of sea otters, has increased since the sea otter population declined.
This
supports the premise that the otter population declined due to predation, not lack of food (malnutrition). If the otters' food source increased, it confirms that the otters were not starving. However,
it doesn't strengthen the specific link to orcas being the predator over any other potential predator.
Irrelevant to Conclusion. It only confirms the initial premise.
(B) Seals do not eat sea otters, nor do they compete with sea otters for food.
This statement simply clarifies the ecological relationship between seals and otters. It doesn't affect the argument that orcas shifted their diet from seals to otters. The argument already uses the decline of the seal population as a reason for the orcas' dietary shift, not as a competing cause for the otter decline.
Irrelevant.(C) Most of the surviving sea otters live in a bay that is inaccessible to orcas.
This option establishes a
direct correlation between protection from orcas and survival. If the otters that survived were primarily those in a location where orcas could not reach them, it provides strong empirical evidence that the predator killing the otters was, in fact, the orca. This links the cause (orca absence) to the effect (otter survival), thus strengthening the conclusion that the orca presence was the cause of the decline.
Strong Strengthener.(D) The population of orcas in the Aleutian Islands has declined since the 1980s.
If the orca population declined, it would suggest a decrease in predation, which would normally lead to an increase in the otter population, or at least stabilize the decline. This evidence
goes against the conclusion that orcas were the cause of the decline.
Weakener.(E) An increase in commercial fishing near the Aleutian Islands in the 1980s caused a slight decline in the population of the fish that seals use for food.
This explains why the seal population declined (it provides a cause for the cause). It strengthens the first part of the argument. While it makes the premise more robust, it doesn't directly strengthen the final, crucial link that orcas actually ate the otters, better than (C) does. Option (C) offers proof of survival linked to orca absence, which is a more powerful confirmation of the conclusion.
Moderate Strengthener (for the premise chain), but less effective than (C).Conclusion
Option (C) provides the most compelling evidence by creating an experimental-like control group: otters protected from orcas survived, while otters exposed to orcas did not. This directly confirms the causal link asserted in the conclusion.