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20 Sep 2015, 07:53
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Hi folks,
I often read that it's wise to take an educated guess on the next difficult question when you run short on time. However, I asked myself whether this is really the way to go. Consider this:
Optimally, I should solve a problem in 120 seconds. This means that my chance increases from 20% at time zero to 100% after 120s - or by 0,67% per second. Using this rate, you can derive the following table:
Elapsed time | Eliminated questions | Increase of chance | Cumulated chance
0 | 0 | 0 | 20%
8 | 1 | +5% | 25%
17 | 2 | +13% | 33%
45 | 3 | +17% | 50%
120 | 4 | +50% | 100%
Now the issue: If I take a random guess immediately, I will waste ~5 seconds. However, if I read the whole questions and all the answers and then quickly think about which annswers to eliminate, which is neccesary to make an educated guess, I will need ~45 seconds. Let's say I am able to eliminate 2 answers: then, according to the table, I waste 45-17=28 seconds. Maybe I'm lucky to elimante 3 questions, in that case I would neither win nor loose any time. (I won't be able to eliminate >3 answers, otherwise the question can't be considered difficult.)
So, from my point of view to use every second most efficiently it is more reasonable to make a random guess than it is to make an eduacated guess. What do you think?
I often read that it's wise to take an educated guess on the next difficult question when you run short on time. However, I asked myself whether this is really the way to go. Consider this:
Optimally, I should solve a problem in 120 seconds. This means that my chance increases from 20% at time zero to 100% after 120s - or by 0,67% per second. Using this rate, you can derive the following table:
Elapsed time | Eliminated questions | Increase of chance | Cumulated chance
0 | 0 | 0 | 20%
8 | 1 | +5% | 25%
17 | 2 | +13% | 33%
45 | 3 | +17% | 50%
120 | 4 | +50% | 100%
Now the issue: If I take a random guess immediately, I will waste ~5 seconds. However, if I read the whole questions and all the answers and then quickly think about which annswers to eliminate, which is neccesary to make an educated guess, I will need ~45 seconds. Let's say I am able to eliminate 2 answers: then, according to the table, I waste 45-17=28 seconds. Maybe I'm lucky to elimante 3 questions, in that case I would neither win nor loose any time. (I won't be able to eliminate >3 answers, otherwise the question can't be considered difficult.)
So, from my point of view to use every second most efficiently it is more reasonable to make a random guess than it is to make an eduacated guess. What do you think?
20 Sep 2015, 11:15
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Hi menken,
Your idea is interesting, but is ultimately based on a couple of 'faulty' premises:
1) The idea that you should spend 120 seconds on each question is incorrect. Certain questions can be solved relatively quickly (in 30 seconds or less), while others are designed to take far more time to solve (3 minutes, and that's if you KNOW what you're doing). So the idea that you should spend the same amount of time on each of your 37 Quant questions is not correct.
2) You're trying to define a guessing strategy based on limited time, but you're still giving yourself 120 seconds to make your choices. If you're low on time, then you don't have 120 seconds per question. If you consider true "out of time" scenarios, you'd be more likely dealing with "5 questions in 5 minutes" or something similar. As such, if you were looking to create a 'logic table' of some type, you should use a more realistic and 'limited' timeframe.
GMAT assassins aren't born, they're made,
Rich
Your idea is interesting, but is ultimately based on a couple of 'faulty' premises:
1) The idea that you should spend 120 seconds on each question is incorrect. Certain questions can be solved relatively quickly (in 30 seconds or less), while others are designed to take far more time to solve (3 minutes, and that's if you KNOW what you're doing). So the idea that you should spend the same amount of time on each of your 37 Quant questions is not correct.
2) You're trying to define a guessing strategy based on limited time, but you're still giving yourself 120 seconds to make your choices. If you're low on time, then you don't have 120 seconds per question. If you consider true "out of time" scenarios, you'd be more likely dealing with "5 questions in 5 minutes" or something similar. As such, if you were looking to create a 'logic table' of some type, you should use a more realistic and 'limited' timeframe.
GMAT assassins aren't born, they're made,
Rich
24 Sep 2015, 02:07
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I'd like to point out another flawed assumption here--that you can reliably reach the correct answer in 120 seconds, and in general that the number of answers you can eliminate increases directly with time. In some cases, you can quickly eliminate several answer choices, but to get any further you will have to solve completely, which may not be practical in the time allotted. In fact, the whole idea behind making educated guesses is that either a) you don't know how to do the problem correctly or b) you have run behind on time. In either case, it clearly couldn't be true that you were able to answer each question correctly in 2 minutes. If someone could do that, they would get a perfect score without running out of time, and they wouldn't need to visit gmatclub other than to brag or to help others! 
Making educated guesses can be a very powerful strategy, and many of my students have used this to increase their scores into the 700s. I certainly make a number of educated guesses when I'm taking an exam. Often, these guesses are merely a way of ensuring that I'm on the right track with my full solution. However, sometimes the full solution doesn't work out, and the educated guess is all I have. That's fine, as long as my overall return is high enough. If any of you find a way to ensure that we get every problem right in 2 minutes, let me know. I can probably get you a great job!
Making educated guesses can be a very powerful strategy, and many of my students have used this to increase their scores into the 700s. I certainly make a number of educated guesses when I'm taking an exam. Often, these guesses are merely a way of ensuring that I'm on the right track with my full solution. However, sometimes the full solution doesn't work out, and the educated guess is all I have. That's fine, as long as my overall return is high enough. If any of you find a way to ensure that we get every problem right in 2 minutes, let me know. I can probably get you a great job!
