Hi onlyPlanA,Your intuition
is the math here. There's no probability formula hiding behind this one. The rigorous version is just a counting-capacity argument (the pigeonhole idea), and once you see it as a formula you can run it on any variant.
The general approachThe event is "at least one day has at least
k people." Instead of computing it, ask the opposite:
how many people can I fit while never letting any day reach k?- Each day is allowed at most
(k - 1) people before it trips the event.
- With
D days, the maximum you can pack without ever hitting k is:
capacity = D x (k - 1)
- If the
actual number of people > capacity, it's
impossible to avoid the event, so the probability is
1.
Your original questionHere k =
2 (at least two on a day), D =
7 days.
- Capacity =
7 x (
2 -
1) =
7 people.
- You have
8 people, and
8 >
7 - can't avoid it - probability =
1. That's choice
E.
Your variant - 15 people, threshold of 3Now k =
3 (at least three on one day), still D =
7 days.
- Capacity =
7 x (
3 -
1) =
14 people.
- You have
15 people, and
15 >
14 - again impossible to spread them out - probability =
1.
Same machine, different numbers.
The takeawayWhen a probability question gives you more items than "slots times the allowed-per-slot," the answer is forced to
1 - you never actually compute a fraction. The moment the people count slips
under capacity (say
14 people, threshold
3), it stops being certain and you'd genuinely have to count arrangements. Spotting which side of that line you're on is the whole skill.
Answer: EonlyPlanA
Intuitively, I understood why the answer is 1. But mathematically, I still can't figure out. How would have we approached this question, if there were 15 people and exactly three of them will go to the hospital on a certain day?