raghupara wrote:
Hi people,
Suddenly, something comes to my mind so awfully, but I couldn't disprove why I am wrong. Could someone help me in this.
I suddenly see it as : P(2 girls, 2 boys) = 1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2 = 1/16.(since each has a prob of 1/2).
Pls disprove me.... I don see where I am wrong, but I know surely I am.
Thanks
The following is the complete explanation for this question:
You need to find Probability of 2 boys and 2 girls given there are at least 2 girls. This is a conditional probability. You have already been given that there are at least 2 girls. You need to find the probability of 2 boys and 2 girls given this condition.
P(A given B) = P(A)/P(B)
P(2 boys, 2 girls) = (1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2) * 4!/(2!*2!) = 3/8
You multiply by 4!/(2!*2!) because out of the four children, any 2 could be boys and the other two would be girls. So you have to account for all arrangements: BGBG, BBGG, BGGB etc
P(atleast 2 girls) = P(2 boys, 2 girls) + P(1 boy, 3 girls) + P(4 girls) = 1 - P(4 boys) - P(3 boys, 1 girl)
You can solve P(atleast 2 girls) in any way you like.
P(1 boy, 3 girls) = (1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2) * 4!/3! = 1/4
P(4 girls) = (1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2) = 1/16
P(atleast 2 girls) = 3/8 + 1/4 + 1/16 = 11/16
P(2 boys, 2 girls given atleast 2 girls) = P(2 boys, 2 girls) / P(atleast 2 girls) = (3/8)/(11/16) = 6/11
In the above given solutions, all the (1/2)s have been ignored because the probability of a boy is 1/2 and of a girl is 1/2 too. Hence in every case you will get (1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2) which can be ignored. We just need to focus on arrangements in each case. This is similar to the famous coin flipping questions (the probability of 3 Heads and a tail etc) (check out Binomial Probability in Veritas Combinatorics book for an explanation)
I have two questions.
1. when calculating 2 boys and 2 girls, given that there are two girls, why do we multiply 4!/2!2! with (1/2)^4?
2. When considering the overall, why do we divide (1) by p(at least two girls)?