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GMAT Tutor
Joined: 24 Jun 2008
Posts: 4128
Own Kudos [?]: 9244 [2]
Given Kudos: 91
 Q51  V47
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Director
Director
Joined: 24 Oct 2016
Posts: 583
Own Kudos [?]: 1322 [0]
Given Kudos: 143
GMAT 1: 670 Q46 V36
GMAT 2: 690 Q47 V38
GMAT 3: 690 Q48 V37
GMAT 4: 710 Q49 V38 (Online)
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Re: Probability Using Venn Diagram [#permalink]
IanStewart wrote:
The rule P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B) is only true if A and B are "independent". That is, it's only true if the outcome of A has no influence on whether B happens. That's sometimes true in real life -- if you roll a die and flip a coin, say, one event has no influence on the other. But it's sometimes not true -- the probability it rains in one city is probably very closely related to the probability it rains in a neighbouring city. In that case, you couldn't use the multiplication rule.

In your Venn diagram, your two events are not independent. If they were independent, then any time the applicant got job A, they'd still have a 50% chance of getting job B. But they don't - when they get job A, they only get job B 3/7 of the time (0.7 of the time they get A, and 0.3 of the time they get both). Since your events are not independent, you can't use the familiar multiplication laws in that situation, and you'd normally need to solve using another method, like the Venn diagram you've drawn.

Fortunately on the GMAT, in almost all questions, events are independent, so you will almost always be able to use the simple multiplication rules when you want the probability two events happen.


Thanks IanStewart. In that case, would the independent events have a Venn diagram with two disjoint circles or overlapping lapping with extremely small overlap? My understanding is that they will have an extremely small overlap as shown in my uploaded file. Since the overlap for such events (i.e. my example on the right half of the page) is so small [Comparing P(A) = P(B) = 0.1 to P (A&B) = 0.1*0.1 = 0.01), they are called independent events even though they have a minor overlap.

Are events considered independent only when P(A&B) = P(A)P(B)?

Please correct me if my understanding is not fully correct. Thanks!
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DependentVsIndependentEvents.png
DependentVsIndependentEvents.png [ 2.51 MiB | Viewed 4275 times ]

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Re: Probability Using Venn Diagram [#permalink]
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