mantymooney wrote:
I am considering applying to HBS in R3. R1 and R2 was not an option for me for reasons that are irrelevant for this discussion. However, I am concerned about effort (both on my part and the part of my recommenders) vs. probability of success.
Here are the parametres (in my mind):
1) As at end Aug. '08, I will have 9.5 years of professional WE. For the Class of 2005, 18.2% of the students that accepted jobs had > 5 years WE. Let's therefore assume that on avg 20% of the class has > 5 years WE.
Note: I'm not taking into consideration the rumors that HBS is currently particulary unfriendly towards applicants over the age of 27!2) I am an international applicant. % of international students at HBS has been consistently around 33% mark for the past 7 years.
3) Of the total slots available, let's assume that 20% are still available in R3.
4) Let's assume avg. acceptance rate is 15%.
Therefore, in its crudest form, my probability of being accepted in R3 is 20% * 33% * 20% * 15% = 0.2%!!!
I believe that I have a strong, unique profile and applying next year is not an option for me.
So, one part of me is thinking, "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take!", and the other part of me, having already gone through a hectic set of R2 applications, is wondering whether my (and my recommenders') time would be better spent swinging my bat at a "different ball", so to speak!
So, I put it to the floor, oh wise ones!
I would greatly appreciate your thoughts!
Note: for what I hope to do post MBA, I believe that HBS will provide me with the best opportunities. However, any of the other schools to which I've applied (Wharton, LBS and Kellogg) would get me 80% of the way there. That said, I would prefer not to get into a "Why HBS" debate! mantymooney, the math is flawed - you have a much higher percentage of getting in than 0.2% (given the assumption that everyone has an equal probability of getting in).
The problem is that mixing parameters incorrectly leads to false probability calculations. Confusing % of applicant pool with acceptance rate and then with your % of getting in can lead to errors.
1st: Acceptance Rate (AR) = 15% acceptance rate * (% of admits remaining for R3/%of applicants applying R3). This does not weight your profile - but is probably the best estimate you can make given the available data
2nd: To do the calculation that you are trying to (weight your profile) you need information you don't have (and may not exist), i.e. what the # of "slots" left are for people with your profile (if there even is such a thing) What you can determine is probably that 30% * 20% = 6% of the R3 application pool is like you (international with > 5Y WE). However, this is as far as you can go.
The 1st equation is probably the best. If you assume that 10% of slots are remaining and 20% of applicants are still applying - you get a rate of about 7.5% acceptance for R3. However, even these assumptions are total guesses.
Basically - don't count yourself out - and I guarantee that your evenly weighted probability of getting in is higher than 0.2%. Now, as a R3, International, >5Y WE, people like you are about 20% * 33% * 10% (% of app pool in R3) = 0.6% of the total applicant pool. But this represents your uniqueness in the pool, not the probability of you getting in. (This could potentially benefit you rather than hurt you)