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555-605 Level|   Strengthen|                  
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Bunuel
Supply shortages and signs of growing demand are driving cocoa prices upward. Unusually severe weather in cocoa-producing regions—too much rain in Brazil and too little in West Africa—has limited production. Further, Europe and North America recently reported stronger demand for cocoa. In the first quarter, grinding of cocoa beans—the first stage in processing cocoa for chocolate—rose 8.1 percent in Europe and 16 percent in North America. Analysts have concluded that cocoa's price will continue to rise at least into the near future.

Which of the following would, if true, most strengthen the reasoning above?

A. Ground cocoa beans can be stored for long periods before they spoil.
B. Several European and North American manufacturers that use cocoa have recently improved their processing capacity.
C. It takes new cocoa trees five or six years before they start bearing fruit.
D. Governments in Europe and North America are likely to change current restrictions on cocoa imports.
E. Historically, cocoa production has varied widely from year to year.


CR51141.01
OG2020 NEW QUESTION

Cutting out the extraneous details, the passage states that
1. shortage + increased demand is causing prices to go up.
2. bad weather made production go down
3. increasing usage of cocoa beans
4. therefore price will continue to increase.

Basically, the argument is that bad production along with increasing demand will make the prices rise even more. Since price is a function of supply and demand, then to strengthen the statement we could show that the supply has indeed gone down or that the demand has indeed gone up. We'll look for an answer with the right logical links, a Logical approach.

(C) is the only direct answer - it strengthens the conjecture that the supply will go down.
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D is also a strengthener.

If Govt. removes the restrictions on the imports that would further increase the demand for cocoa in Europe and North America.
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Supply shortages and signs of growing demand are driving cocoa prices upward. Unusually severe weather in cocoa-producing regions—too much rain in Brazil and too little in West Africa—has limited production. Further, Europe and North America recently reported stronger demand for cocoa. In the first quarter, grinding of cocoa beans—the first stage in processing cocoa for chocolate—rose 8.1 percent in Europe and 16 percent in North America. Analysts have concluded that cocoa's price will continue to rise at least into the near future.

Type- strengthen
Analysts have concluded that cocoa's price will continue to rise at least into the near future because of the decrease in supply and increase in demand.

A. Ground cocoa beans can be stored for long periods before they spoil.- Irrelevant
B. Several European and North American manufacturers that use cocoa have recently improved their processing capacity.- Irrelevant, the processing capacity was not a bottleneck and thus improvement in processing capacity will not help.
C. It takes new cocoa trees five or six years before they start bearing fruit.- Correct, this addresses the issue from supply side. What it means that people cannot increase the production of Cocoa in short notice and thus supply WILL NOT increase
D. Governments in Europe and North America are likely to change current restrictions on cocoa imports. - Irrelevant, we have no idea how strict the current restrictions are. It may be that current restrictions are already very little. Also, we are told that demand and supply factors are driving up the prices.
E. Historically, cocoa production has varied widely from year to year. - Irrelevant

Answer C
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Bunuel
Supply shortages and signs of growing demand are driving cocoa prices upward. Unusually severe weather in cocoa-producing regions—too much rain in Brazil and too little in West Africa—has limited production. Further, Europe and North America recently reported stronger demand for cocoa. In the first quarter, grinding of cocoa beans—the first stage in processing cocoa for chocolate—rose 8.1 percent in Europe and 16 percent in North America. Analysts have concluded that cocoa's price will continue to rise at least into the near future.

Which of the following would, if true, most strengthen the reasoning above?

A. Ground cocoa beans can be stored for long periods before they spoil.
B. Several European and North American manufacturers that use cocoa have recently improved their processing capacity.
C. It takes new cocoa trees five or six years before they start bearing fruit.
D. Governments in Europe and North America are likely to change current restrictions on cocoa imports.
E. Historically, cocoa production has varied widely from year to year.


CR51141.01
OG2020 NEW QUESTION

Cutting out the extraneous details, the passage states that
1. shortage + increased demand is causing prices to go up.
2. bad weather made production go down
3. increasing usage of cocoa beans
4. therefore price will continue to increase.

Basically, the argument is that bad production along with increasing demand will make the prices rise even more. Since price is a function of supply and demand, then to strengthen the statement we could show that the supply has indeed gone down or that the demand has indeed gone up. We'll look for an answer with the right logical links, a Logical approach.

(C) is the only direct answer - it strengthens the conjecture that the supply will go down.


How about B?
Doesn't "improved their processing capacity" result in the increase on demand?
Or did I go too far?
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Bunuel
Supply shortages and signs of growing demand are driving cocoa prices upward. Unusually severe weather in cocoa-producing regions—too much rain in Brazil and too little in West Africa—has limited production. Further, Europe and North America recently reported stronger demand for cocoa. In the first quarter, grinding of cocoa beans—the first stage in processing cocoa for chocolate—rose 8.1 percent in Europe and 16 percent in North America. Analysts have concluded that cocoa's price will continue to rise at least into the near future.

Which of the following would, if true, most strengthen the reasoning above?

A. Ground cocoa beans can be stored for long periods before they spoil.
B. Several European and North American manufacturers that use cocoa have recently improved their processing capacity.
C. It takes new cocoa trees five or six years before they start bearing fruit.
D. Governments in Europe and North America are likely to change current restrictions on cocoa imports.
E. Historically, cocoa production has varied widely from year to year.


CR51141.01
OG2020 NEW QUESTION

Cutting out the extraneous details, the passage states that
1. shortage + increased demand is causing prices to go up.
2. bad weather made production go down
3. increasing usage of cocoa beans
4. therefore price will continue to increase.

Basically, the argument is that bad production along with increasing demand will make the prices rise even more. Since price is a function of supply and demand, then to strengthen the statement we could show that the supply has indeed gone down or that the demand has indeed gone up. We'll look for an answer with the right logical links, a Logical approach.

(C) is the only direct answer - it strengthens the conjecture that the supply will go down.


How about B?
Doesn't "improved their processing capacity" result in the increase on demand?
Or did I go too far?

The stimulus states 2 things -

1. Fall in supply ( Due to poor weather )
2. Rise in Demand ( North Am. & Europe - Resulting in increase in Cocoa processing)

Result of the 2 situations above will result continuation of the same in near future.....

(B) Suggests improvement in production capacity but the problem at hand is Cocoa production is less ... There can be no justification for increasing productivity when there is scarcity of raw materials..
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Sneha333
D is also a strengthener.

If Govt. removes the restrictions on the imports that would further increase the demand for cocoa in Europe and North America.


I thought this at first, but actually think about it in this sense:

Restrictions are usually taxes placed on the imports, for example tarifs. These restrictions usually increase the price, so if these restrictions are lifted then the price will likely go down in that country.

Although this would logically suggest that demand go up, the argument is principally concerned with impacts on global price.
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dcummins
Sneha333
D is also a strengthener.

If Govt. removes the restrictions on the imports that would further increase the demand for cocoa in Europe and North America.


I thought this at first, but actually think about it in this sense:

Restrictions are usually taxes placed on the imports, for example tarifs. These restrictions usually increase the price, so if these restrictions are lifted then the price will likely go down in that country.

Although this would logically suggest that demand go up, the argument is principally concerned with impacts on global price.

Just wanted to add that a simpler elimination is to note that the word 'change' in option (D) does not imply direction... instead of 'removes restrictions' it could be 'increases restrictions'.



DavidTutorexamPAL

I didn't even see that!

Perhaps I should study CR at the beginning of the day when my brain and eyes are fresh instead of picking up the clunky 2020 OG at the end of a 5 hour study session.

It really feels like the 2020 CR questions are difficult and almost as if there's a stronger representation of Strengthen/ Assumption/ Complete the argument questions though!
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dcummins
I didn't even see that!

Perhaps I should study CR at the beginning of the day when my brain and eyes are fresh instead of picking up the clunky 2020 OG at the end of a 5 hour study session.

It really feels like the 2020 CR questions are difficult and almost as if there's a stronger representation of Strengthen/ Assumption/ Complete the argument questions though!

No worries, happy to help :)
I agree that OG 2020 CR has a few 'problematic' questions in it. Dunno if it is generally harder though
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Can we apply the negation technique to solve this question?
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Bunuel
Supply shortages and signs of growing demand are driving cocoa prices upward. Unusually severe weather in cocoa-producing regions—too much rain in Brazil and too little in West Africa—has limited production. Further, Europe and North America recently reported stronger demand for cocoa. In the first quarter, grinding of cocoa beans—the first stage in processing cocoa for chocolate—rose 8.1 percent in Europe and 16 percent in North America. Analysts have concluded that cocoa's price will continue to rise at least into the near future.

Which of the following would, if true, most strengthen the reasoning above?

A. Ground cocoa beans can be stored for long periods before they spoil.
B. Several European and North American manufacturers that use cocoa have recently improved their processing capacity.
C. It takes new cocoa trees five or six years before they start bearing fruit.
D. Governments in Europe and North America are likely to change current restrictions on cocoa imports.
E. Historically, cocoa production has varied widely from year to year.


CR51141.01
OG2020 NEW QUESTION

MentorTutoring

Could you please give your reasoning to eliminate option B? It is in line with the prompt and indicates an increase in demand.

Regards.
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Can we apply the negation technique to solve this question?


Hey there,


Situation:
There has been limited production of cocoa beans due to severe weather and also increased demand for cocoa; as a result, cocoa prices have risen.

Reasoning: What would help support the analysts' inference that cocoa prices will continue to rise at least into the near future? If the price of cocoa is to continue to rise, then the conditions that have led to the recent increase in price must not be ameliorated. They would be ameliorated if demand for cocoa beans declined, e.g., because price increases made people less likely to want ground cocoa; they would also be ameliorated if supply increased, e.g., because many new cocoa trees were planted and very quickly started bearing fruit. If we had reason to believe that one or more of these ameliorating factors is unlikely to happen, then we have more reason to think that prices might stay high, and possibly even rise further.

Option A - That ground cocoa beans can be stored for long periods without spoiling does not tell us whether supply and demand conditions will stay stable, improve, or get worse.

Option B - The fact that these manufacturers have recently improved their processing capacity might help explain why the grinding of cocoa beans has increased recently; but it does not indicate that this increased capacity will be fully utilized. Often, if end-product demand decreases, industrial capacity will become underutilized.

Option C - Correct. If it takes new cocoa trees several years to start bearing fruit, then it is less likely that supply can quickly be increased, which in turn makes it less likely that supply can quickly meet any increased demand and thereby relieve pricing pressures.

Option D - These governments may change current restrictions on cocoa imports, but for all we know they may make them more restrictive rather than less restrictive. If they made them more restrictive, demand might decrease, in which case prices might actually fall.

Option E - If cocoa production varies from year to year, it could be that next year cocoa production increases, in which case, as long as demand does not increase as well, prices might fall.

Hope this helps.
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Bunuel
Supply shortages and signs of growing demand are driving cocoa prices upward. Unusually severe weather in cocoa-producing regions—too much rain in Brazil and too little in West Africa—has limited production. Further, Europe and North America recently reported stronger demand for cocoa. In the first quarter, grinding of cocoa beans—the first stage in processing cocoa for chocolate—rose 8.1 percent in Europe and 16 percent in North America. Analysts have concluded that cocoa's price will continue to rise at least into the near future.


Hi AndrewN - Regarding the green highlight in the question stem specifically,

How can Grinding of cocoa beans in Europe and Grinding in North America INCREASE when supplies from Africa and supplies from Brazil have gone down ?

I was thinking about this in back of my mind as I read this question stem ...

Isn't the green a paradox because our supplies of cocoa has gone down -- How can then grinding go up ?

It doesn't make logical sense to me
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Bunuel
Supply shortages and signs of growing demand are driving cocoa prices upward. Unusually severe weather in cocoa-producing regions—too much rain in Brazil and too little in West Africa—has limited production. Further, Europe and North America recently reported stronger demand for cocoa. In the first quarter, grinding of cocoa beans—the first stage in processing cocoa for chocolate—rose 8.1 percent in Europe and 16 percent in North America. Analysts have concluded that cocoa's price will continue to rise at least into the near future.


Hi AndrewN - Regarding the green highlight in the question stem specifically,

How can Grinding of cocoa beans in Europe and Grinding in North America INCREASE when supplies from Africa and supplies from Brazil have gone down ?

I was thinking about this in back of my mind as I read this question stem ...

Isn't the green a paradox because our supplies of cocoa has gone down -- How can then grinding go up ?

It doesn't make logical sense to me
Hello, jabhatta2. For the sake of simplicity, let us say that cocoa beans can safely be stored (for future grinding) for six months. (My research online indicates a six- to twelve-month window in real life.) It could be the case that businesses in Europe and North America are grinding their stored beans, perhaps from prior to the supply shortage, in an effort to keep up with the demand for cocoa. But if such demand continues, then without new beans to store away, the predicament outlined in the passage could develop: high demand, low supply.

I hope that makes sense. Thank you for thinking to ask.

- Andrew
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Hello, jabhatta2. For the sake of simplicity, let us say that cocoa beans can safely be stored (for future grinding) for six months. (My research online indicates a six- to twelve-month window in real life.) It could be the case that businesses in Europe and North America are grinding their stored beans, perhaps from prior to the supply shortage, in an effort to keep up with the demand for cocoa. But if such demand continues, then without new beans to store away, the predicament outlined in the passage could develop: high demand, low supply.

I hope that makes sense. Thank you for thinking to ask.

- Andrew

Thank you AndrewN for following up

Just curious - when you solve such problems - do such extraneous questions go through your mind ? My mind immediately started asking this question and it slows me down. I have to push these questions to the back of mind but it does blind me when I do such questions.

If anything the passage should include how grinding has gone up when supplies from Brazil and supplies from Africa have gone down (you mentioned that the cocoa is stored 6 months in advance) should it not ?
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Thank you AndrewN for following up

Just curious - when you solve such problems - do such extraneous questions go through your mind ? My mind immediately started asking this question and it slows me down. I have to push these questions to the back of mind but it does blind me when I do such questions.

If anything the passage should include how grinding has gone up when supplies from Brazil and supplies from Africa have gone down (you mentioned that the cocoa is stored 6 months in advance) should it not ?
That is a great question, jabhatta2. These days, I am pretty good at silencing such thoughts, but I struggled with CR in the beginning (at least, by my standards, relative to the other areas of Verbal). One of my most popular posts (which you can read here) touches on the strategy of pre-thinking, and in it, I say the following:

AndrewN
I typically bypass pre-thinking and engage directly with the question, then the passage, then each answer choice, making sure the option I choose has firm grounding in the text and answers the question being asked.
Now, you might wonder how I could say such a thing and then take the passage—this passage, about cocoa—at its word and assume that somehow the potentially paradoxical relationship you outlined in your earlier post was not an issue. Well, just as it could be true that the passage makes no sense, it is equally possible that my scenario makes sense, and all we have to lean on in the end is the passage, as well as GMAC™ telling us (in the OG) that premises are to be considered true. (Again, I would refer you to that other post, in which I quote the OG on this very point.) Thus, the only part of the passage that we are allowed to attack is the reasoning of the analysts. Since this question asks us to strengthen that reasoning instead, we just have to play ball and look to follow the linear logic of the passage.

My accuracy on CR skyrocketed the less I sought to question everything and the more I stuck to exactly what the passage said. I hope that through practice and reflection, you might achieve a similar level of comfort and confidence in the face of even the most difficult questions.

- Andrew
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why people have to wait till cocoa tree bears fruit? Maybe in a span of 6 months, it will grow enough to be useful. Nowhere mentioned about the fruit of the tree?


Pardon me, if it is a stupid question....
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sankarvignesh
why people have to wait till cocoa tree bears fruit? Maybe in a span of 6 months, it will grow enough to be useful. Nowhere mentioned about the fruit of the tree?


Pardon me, if it is a stupid question....
Hi sankarvignesh,

I see your point, but are you otherwise comfortable with the third option (or maybe comfortable removing the other options)? That is, is your concern only about the fact that the word fruit is not mentioned in the stimulus?
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