Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee

Please REVIEW MY second ANALYTICAL WRITING ASSESSMENT ESSAY. THANK YOU. Sajjad1994

The following appeared as part of the business plan of an investment and financial consulting firm:

“Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”

My answer:
The argument claims that over the next 20 years, the number of older people will significantly increase and as the average coffee drinker's consumption of coffee increases with age where as cola drinker's consumption declines with age, the companies should consider transferring their investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee. The argument fails to mention many key factors against which the argument can be evaluated and therefore is severely flawed.

Firstly, the argument cites a certain survey as an evidence for the logic of the conclusion about the patterns of coffee and cola consumption in reference to the age. However, the argument fails to provide any credibility for the survey. What if the survey is biased? What if the method of the survey is flawed? What if the sample of people surveyed is not representative of an entire population? These key factors can hamper the credibility of the survey and therefore weaken the conclusion.

Additionally, the author assumes that in the next 20 years, the consumption trends of coffee and cola will remain static. This assumption has not been given any substantial evidence to support. Over long periods of time, historical patterns of consumer good consumption can drastically change. The trends are dynamic and can evolve over time and space. It is possible that over 20 years, more people start consuming more cola as they age, or that more people switch to another beverage other than coffee or cola entirely. There are many ways in which people's consumption habits can change due to several reasons. Thus, this assumption is unsubstantiated and the conclusion is flawed.

Lastly, the argument states that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years. However it does not state any information about the relative age demography like the proportion of younger people to older adults. The argument does not say that the number of older adults will be more than younger people. Therefore, it is too soon to conclude that demand for coffee will increase and demand for cola will decline during this period.

In conclusion, the argument is flawed for the above-mentioned reasons and can be strengthen if more information about the key factors required to evaluate it is presented. More information about the study citied should be given like who conducted it, the sample surveyed, the methodology of it's analysis and the possible errors so the evidence about the consumption patterns is more credible. The argument need to account the fact that consumption trends are dynamic and can vary from time and base a conclusion taking that into account. Also. a better demography of the population should be given where the proportion of younger people to older adults is clearly stated to draw better inferences. All these factors can help better analyse the trends and draw a reasonable conclusion.

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Good Luck

AWA Evaluation Request

Dear Sajjad1994, it would be very helpful if you could please grade my AWA attempt.

Prompt:
The following appeared as part of the business plan of an investment and financial consulting firm:
“Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.


My Answer :

The argument claims that in the next 20 years, the old population will increase and the firm should therefore consider shifting its investments from Cola to Coffee. Stated in this way, the argument manipulates facts and presents a distorted view of the situation and fails to mention several key factors, on the basis of which it could be evaluated. The conclusion is based on assumptions for which there is no clear evidence. The argument is therefore unconvincing and has several flaws.

First, the argument readily assumes that the decreased level of consumption of cola, is lesser than the increased level of coffee consumption. This statement is a stretch as it is quite possible that the difference between the current level of consumption of cola and coffee is so ginormous that the consumption of cola is still much higher than the consumption of coffee, despite the respective decrease and increase. Clearly, it is also possible that there isn’t a very huge difference between the consumption of coffee and cola. In this case, the argument fails to consider the possibility in which the rate of increase in coffee consumption is marginal and so is the decrease in the consumption of cola. And this causes the overall consumption of cola to still be higher than that of coffee. The argument would have been much clearer if it exlplicitly stated the current level of consumption of cola and coffee and the level of consumption of cola and coffee after their respective decrease and increase.


Second, the argument claims that the average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. This is again an unwarranted claim as there are no statistics on the population of coffee drinkers and non-coffee drinkers. To illustrate, it is quite possible that the population of coffee drinkers is marginal or smaller than the population of non-coffee drinkers. If only 5% of the population consists of coffee drinking population, and 95% of the population drinks cola, then even if the level of consumption of coffee after the increase is greater than the level of consumption of coffee after the decline, it would make much more sense to invest in Cola Loca than to invest in Early Bird Coffee. If the argument would have clearly mentioned the percent of the population that consists of “coffee drinkers” and cola, it would have been more convincing.


Third, the argument also states that since the trends of increase in coffee consumption between ages 10 and 60 and the consumption of coffee remaining high even after the age of 60, haven’t changed since the past 40 years, they will continue to be the same in the coming years as well. This is a very flawed assumption as the only constant in life is change. In fact, since these trends haven’t changed since the past 40 years, it is quite likely that they will change now. The argument fails to consider other factors which could affect these trends. For example, a company comes up with a unique drink and the population starts choosing that drink over coffee and cola. Or if Cola Loca innovates and produces a new variant of cola that people find much better than coffee. Since the argument is not prudent, it jumps to conclusions and is very unsubstantiated.


Finally ,the argument concludes that the firm should, consider transferring their investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee. The argument fails to evaluate how the firm is so sure that the trends will remain the same even in the years to come. There is also no evidence that the population will age. If the current population will age with time, there will be a younger generation too. Has their consumption of cola and coffee been taken into account as well? Without answers to these questions, one is left with the impression that this is more wishful thinking than substantive evidence. As a result, the conclusion has no legs to stand on.


In conclusion, the argument has several flaws and is very unconvincing. It could be strengthened if it clearly mentioned all the assumptions and statistics used to arrive at the conclusion. In the evaluation of the merit of a decision, it id imperative to have information on the key factors. In this case, the possibility of change in trends, the current level of consumption of coffee and cola and the level of consumption of coffee and cola after their respective increase and decline and the exact population which is considered as coffee- drinkers and non coffee-drinkers . The argument is therefore not compelling and open to debate.

Good Luck