mikeCoolBoy
Polling data reveal that an overwhelming majority of 9 year olds can correctly identify the logos of major cigarette brands. However, of those 9 year olds who recognize such logos, less than 1% smoke. Therefore, there is little or no connection between recognition of cigarette brand logos and smoking.
Which one of the following uses flawed reasoning most similar to the flawed reasoning above?
A) The concern about the long-term effects on dolphins of small quantities of mercury in the ocean is unfounded. During a three-month period, 1,000 dolphins were exposed to small quantities of mercury in seawater, with no effect on the animal.
B) Many ten-year-olds dream of becoming actors. Yet it is not likely they will seriously consider becoming actors, because most parents discourage their children from pursuing such a highly competitive career.
C) Most dentist recommend using fluoride to reduce incidence of cavities, but few recommend giving up candy entirely; so, using fluoride is probably more effective in preventing cavities than is avoiding sweets.
D) A large percentage of men exercise moderately throughout their lives, but the average life span of tose who do so is not significantly greater than of those who get little or no exercise. So there is little or no correlation between moderate exercise and good health.
E) Most people cannot name their legislative representatives. Nonetheless, this is insignificant, for when queried, most of them displayed an adequate command of current political issues.
First note that the reasoning of the original argument is flawed. The reasoning of the correct option should be similarly flawed.
Most 9 year olds can correctly identify the logos of major cigarette brands.
However less than 1% of those who identified smoke.
Conclusion: There is little or no connection between recognition of cigarette brand logos and smoking.
What is the flaw? 9 yr olds are not allowed to/expected to smoke. So whether they know the brands or not will not tell us whether recognition and smoking are related. The point is the long term impact of recognition of brands. Are they more likely to smoke as adults? That will tell us whether recognition is related to smoking.
A) The concern about the long-term effects on dolphins of small quantities of mercury in the ocean is unfounded. During a three-month period, 1,000 dolphins were exposed to small quantities of mercury in seawater, with no effect on the animal.
This tells us that since no effect was observed during the 3 month period, there are no long term effects of Mercury. But this is flawed in the same way as our original argument. Only after many years will be come to know whether small amounts of Mercury have impact on dolphins or not.
D) A large percentage of men exercise moderately throughout their lives, but the average life span of tose who do so is not significantly greater than of those who get little or no exercise. So there is little or no correlation between moderate exercise and good health.
This logic is not flawed in the same way. If large % of men do exercise moderately throughout their lives and their avg life span is similar to those who do not exercise, then it seems that exercise has no impact on longevity. The problem is that the conclusion says that exercise has no correlation with good health. Now, lifespan and good health are not the same. What if men who exercise stay in good health throughout their lifespan but those who do not exercise suffer problems and take medications and are able to reach that lifespan but with struggle? So this argument is flawed too but in a different way.
Answer (A)