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Polling data reveal that an overwhelming majority of 9 year olds can

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Polling data reveal that an overwhelming majority of 9 year olds can  [#permalink]

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New post Updated on: 22 Aug 2018, 22:51
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Polling data reveal that an overwhelming majority of 9 year olds can correctly identify the logos of major cigarette brands. However, of those 9 year olds who recognize such logos, less than 1% smoke. Therefore, there is little or no connection between recognition of cigarette brand logos and smoking.

Which one of the following uses flawed reasoning most similar to the flawed reasoning above?


A) The concern about the long-term effects on dolphins of small quantities of mercury in the ocean is unfounded. During a three-month period, 1,000 dolphins were exposed to small quantities of mercury in seawater, with no effect on the animal.

B) Many ten-year-olds dream of becoming actors. Yet it is not likely they will seriously consider becoming actors, because most parents discourage their children from pursuing such a highly competitive career.

C) Most dentist recommend using fluoride to reduce incidence of cavities, but few recommend giving up candy entirely; so, using fluoride is probably more effective in preventing cavities than is avoiding sweets.

D) A large percentage of men exercise moderately throughout their lives, but the average life span of tose who do so is not significantly greater than of those who get little or no exercise. So there is little or no correlation between moderate exercise and good health.

E) Most people cannot name their legislative representatives. Nonetheless, this is insignificant, for when queried, most of them displayed an adequate command of current political issues.

Originally posted by mikeCoolBoy on 08 Sep 2009, 10:24.
Last edited by Bunuel on 22 Aug 2018, 22:51, edited 2 times in total.
Renamed the topic, edited the question and added the OA.
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Re: Polling data reveal that an overwhelming majority of 9 year olds can  [#permalink]

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New post 12 Nov 2009, 08:27
5
Both A and the stimulus follow the same method of reasoning. It helps to diagram the stimulus to see this relation


many children ---> identify logos
those children ---> not smoke
--------------------------------------------------
no correlation between identify logos and smoking


many dolphins ---> exposed to small quantities of mercury in seawater
those dolphins ---> no effect on the animal
-------------------------------------------------------------------
no correlation between mercury and effects on the animal

Let me know if this helps
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Re: Polling data reveal that an overwhelming majority of 9 year olds can  [#permalink]

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New post 08 Sep 2009, 10:33
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ill go for A...
in original argument ,a case of 9 yr old is taken to justify a pt .. similarly in A a gp of dolphin is taken to justify the effect on the entire species..
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Re: Polling data reveal that an overwhelming majority of 9 year olds can  [#permalink]

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New post 08 Sep 2009, 12:38
One more vote for D.

The problem I see with A is that, when 1000 dolphins were exposed to small quantities of mercury in sea water, none of them are effected. But the reasoning in the stimulus is stating that less thatn 1% are effected.
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Re: Polling data reveal that an overwhelming majority of 9 year olds can  [#permalink]

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New post 08 Sep 2009, 13:21
I will also go for D and wording in D also matches with question wording . I am suspicious that D may be wrong as this was quite obvious choice .
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Re: Polling data reveal that an overwhelming majority of 9 year olds can  [#permalink]

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New post 08 Sep 2009, 14:27
I went with D as well but I do feel it is also a trap answer.

E is my 2nd guess as it says. there is no correlation between knowing the people and knowing the issues.
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Re: Polling data reveal that an overwhelming majority of 9 year olds can  [#permalink]

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New post 10 Sep 2009, 01:22
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you were all right D is a trap answer :)

The correct answer choice is A.

The method of reasoning in the stimulus is a cause-effect relationship that is denied.

The flawed in reasoning is that you cannot extract that conclusion from nine-year-olds who cannot purchase their own cigarettes.

The problem with option D is that switches terms from the premise to the conclusion. The premise is about "average life span", but the conclusion is about "good health". Another problem is that this answer relates the group to an average ("average life span") whereas the stimulus related the group to a specific result ("smoking")
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Re: Polling data reveal that an overwhelming majority of 9 year olds can  [#permalink]

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New post 12 Nov 2009, 07:04
Agreed.

Can you please map the flaw to the correct answer option as well ??

I mean, I know why D is wrong answer, not why A is the correct answer..

Thanks


mikeCoolBoy wrote:
you were all right D is a trap answer :)

The correct answer choice is A.

The method of reasoning in the stimulus is a cause-effect relationship that is denied.

The flawed in reasoning is that you cannot extract that conclusion from nine-year-olds who cannot purchase their own cigarettes.

The problem with option D is that switches terms from the premise to the conclusion. The premise is about "average life span", but the conclusion is about "good health". Another problem is that this answer relates the group to an average ("average life span") whereas the stimulus related the group to a specific result ("smoking")
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Re: Polling data reveal that an overwhelming majority of 9 year olds can  [#permalink]

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New post 15 Nov 2009, 17:45
This question was indeed a difficult one. I see why A is the best answer now. However, I find the phrase "there is little or no connection between recognition of cigarette brand logos and smoking" so much more general than the dolphin reasoning. It's not exactly the most symmetric answer I have come across. But it's the best choice from the lot.
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Re: Polling data reveal that an overwhelming majority of 9 year olds can  [#permalink]

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New post 04 Jan 2010, 20:10
Ok, I understand why the flawed in reasoning is that you cannot extract that conclusion from nine-year-olds who cannot purchase their own cigarettes,

but why do you think that the fact because dolphins did not suffer of exposure to small quantities of mercury in seawater is flawed. I think it logically shows that because it worked on 100 dolphins it should work on other dolphins as well.

In the example with 9 year old kids it was understandable that they can not buy cigarettes, and that is why they may be not smoking. I do not see any of that problem in the choice A.
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Re: Polling data reveal that an overwhelming majority of 9 year olds can  [#permalink]

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New post 25 Apr 2011, 03:50
1000 dolphins is a large sample space to be representative of all dolphins isn't it ? but 9 year olds who recognize brands are not representative of all smokers ?

can someone please clear this up ?
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Re: Polling data reveal that an overwhelming majority of 9 year olds can  [#permalink]

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New post 29 Aug 2015, 04:15
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I think D is wrong because the reasoning behind D is not flawed.

A is correct because the reasoning behind A is definitely flawed.

A talks about long term effect and carries out the exp. for only 3 months.

Out of large sample, only 1000 are selected as though the 1000 from a representative sample.
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Re: Polling data reveal that an overwhelming majority of 9 year olds can  [#permalink]

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New post 28 Aug 2018, 00:57
I think the point is that the premise is limited to the 9-years- old children, but the conclusion is generalized.

It seems to say that "because 9-years-old children approved no relationship between recognition of cigarette brands and smoking, there is no relationship between recognition of cigarette brands and smoking.".

So, the flaw is "composition and division" or "unrepresentative samples".
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Re: Polling data reveal that an overwhelming majority of 9 year olds can  [#permalink]

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New post 28 Aug 2018, 10:18
The way I see it, the flawed reasoning is that you are selecting a testing group which has a certain common characteristic (being 9 year old). And you are extending the results to justify the phenomenon over a larger group of people (people of all ages). So A cannot be the answer since the 1000 dolphins were not dolphins that were of a particular type or say lived in a particular area.
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Re: Polling data reveal that an overwhelming majority of 9 year olds can  [#permalink]

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New post 28 Aug 2018, 16:08
mitrakaushi wrote:
The way I see it, the flawed reasoning is that you are selecting a testing group which has a certain common characteristic (being 9 year old). And you are extending the results to justify the phenomenon over a larger group of people (people of all ages). So A cannot be the answer since the 1000 dolphins were not dolphins that were of a particular type or say lived in a particular area.


I think the flaw in the choice A is that: "1000 dolphins" is the "unrepresentative samples" and "dolphins" in the conclusion is "all the dolphins". Therefore, the argument is flawed to extend the test result of the effect of mercury on "1000 dolphins" to the effect on "dolphins".
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Re: Polling data reveal that an overwhelming majority of 9 year olds can  [#permalink]

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New post 28 Aug 2018, 18:11
I think the answer is E. Can anyone explain how E is ruled out.

Thanks in advance

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Polling data reveal that an overwhelming majority of 9 year olds can  [#permalink]

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New post 06 Sep 2018, 06:16
mikeCoolBoy wrote:
Polling data reveal that an overwhelming majority of 9 year olds can correctly identify the logos of major cigarette brands. However, of those 9 year olds who recognize such logos, less than 1% smoke. Therefore, there is little or no connection between recognition of cigarette brand logos and smoking.

Which one of the following uses flawed reasoning most similar to the flawed reasoning above?


A) The concern about the long-term effects on dolphins of small quantities of mercury in the ocean is unfounded. During a three-month period, 1,000 dolphins were exposed to small quantities of mercury in seawater, with no effect on the animal.

B) Many ten-year-olds dream of becoming actors. Yet it is not likely they will seriously consider becoming actors, because most parents discourage their children from pursuing such a highly competitive career.

C) Most dentist recommend using fluoride to reduce incidence of cavities, but few recommend giving up candy entirely; so, using fluoride is probably more effective in preventing cavities than is avoiding sweets.

D) A large percentage of men exercise moderately throughout their lives, but the average life span of tose who do so is not significantly greater than of those who get little or no exercise. So there is little or no correlation between moderate exercise and good health.

E) Most people cannot name their legislative representatives. Nonetheless, this is insignificant, for when queried, most of them displayed an adequate command of current political issues.


generalizing the behavior of 9-year-olds to all humans is incorrect (selection bias)
But 1000 dolphins does not seem like a minuscule number.

AjiteshArun , GMATNinja , mikemcgarry , egmat , RonPurewal , DmitryFarber , MagooshExpert , ccooley , ChiranjeevSingh, GMATGuruNY , VeritasKarishma , other experts-- please enlighten
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Re: Polling data reveal that an overwhelming majority of 9 year olds can  [#permalink]

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New post 06 Sep 2018, 06:53
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Skywalker18 wrote:

generalizing the behavior of 9-year-olds to all humans is incorrect (selection bias)
But 1000 dolphins does not seem like a minuscule number.



The way A is parallel to the given argument is not that both generalize from a wrong/small sample. The way A is parallel to the given argument is that both look at short-term results to make conclusions about long-term implications.

Option A says that the concern about the long-term effects is unfounded even though the dolphins are studied for only three months.

Similarly, the given argument says there is little or no connection between recognition of cigarette brand logos and smoking based on the current smoking habits in 9-year olds. It is not unreasonable to expect that such 'brand-aware' children will more than likely pick up smoking once they grow up. These children must be studied for years to identify a relationship between their current level of awareness about logos of cigarette brand and their likelihood of taking up smoking.
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Re: Polling data reveal that an overwhelming majority of 9 year olds can  [#permalink]

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New post 06 Sep 2018, 19:10
Skywalker18 wrote:
mikeCoolBoy wrote:
Polling data reveal that an overwhelming majority of 9 year olds can correctly identify the logos of major cigarette brands. However, of those 9 year olds who recognize such logos, less than 1% smoke. Therefore, there is little or no connection between recognition of cigarette brand logos and smoking.

Which one of the following uses flawed reasoning most similar to the flawed reasoning above?


A) The concern about the long-term effects on dolphins of small quantities of mercury in the ocean is unfounded. During a three-month period, 1,000 dolphins were exposed to small quantities of mercury in seawater, with no effect on the animal.

B) Many ten-year-olds dream of becoming actors. Yet it is not likely they will seriously consider becoming actors, because most parents discourage their children from pursuing such a highly competitive career.

C) Most dentist recommend using fluoride to reduce incidence of cavities, but few recommend giving up candy entirely; so, using fluoride is probably more effective in preventing cavities than is avoiding sweets.

D) A large percentage of men exercise moderately throughout their lives, but the average life span of tose who do so is not significantly greater than of those who get little or no exercise. So there is little or no correlation between moderate exercise and good health.

E) Most people cannot name their legislative representatives. Nonetheless, this is insignificant, for when queried, most of them displayed an adequate command of current political issues.


generalizing the behavior of 9-year-olds to all humans is incorrect (selection bias)
But 1000 dolphins does not seem like a minuscule number.

AjiteshArun , GMATNinja , mikemcgarry , egmat , RonPurewal , DmitryFarber , MagooshExpert , ccooley , ChiranjeevSingh, GMATGuruNY , VeritasKarishma , other experts-- please enlighten


I am not an expert and I would like to express my view. If my argument is flawed, please correct me.

Though I found no an exact figure for that, if we consider all the wild and no wild dolphins, it should be a large number compared to 1000.

That is why I think that 1000 is not representative of all dolphins.
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Re: Polling data reveal that an overwhelming majority of 9 year olds can &nbs [#permalink] 06 Sep 2018, 19:10
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