V21-34

Question

For the first time since influenza vaccines became popular, the demand for the vaccine exceeds the supply in our state. In order to manage the impact of this shortage on public health, the governor has issued a directive ordering that the vaccine be made available first to groups most vulnerable to serious complications from the illness. The directive states that all children under the age of 12 and all seniors over the age of 80 will be given the first opportunity to receive the vaccine at special flu-shot clinics hosted by local elementary schools and senior citizens' centers. The special clinics will be open for three consecutive weekdays from 9:00 a.m. until 5:00 p.m.
 
Which of the following, if true, most strongly suggests that the governor's directive will fail to achieve its intended effect of reducing the number of serious complications arising from influenza infections?

A. Many of the state's residents question the effectiveness of the influenza vaccine.
B. Most people between the ages of 12 and 80 who received the vaccine last year will not be eligible to receive the vaccine at the special flu-shot clinics.
C. Of the patients who developed serious complications after contracting the influenza virus during the past decade, nearly ten percent had been vaccinated for the virus.
D. The majority of the state's senior citizens over the age of 80 who live at home rely on other adults for transportation, who are unavailable to drive them to the clinics during the specified hours.
E. Some children under the age of 12 are home-schooled and have never been to any of the local elementary schools.

jeffn · Answer

Official Solution:

For the first time since influenza vaccines became popular, the demand for the vaccine exceeds the supply in our state. In order to manage the impact of this shortage on public health, the governor has issued a directive ordering that the vaccine be made available first to groups most vulnerable to serious complications from the illness. The directive states that all children under the age of 12 and all seniors over the age of 80 will be given the first opportunity to receive the vaccine at special flu-shot clinics hosted by local elementary schools and senior citizens' centers. The special clinics will be open for three consecutive weekdays from 9:00 a.m. until 5:00 p.m.
 
Which of the following, if true, most strongly suggests that the governor's directive will fail to achieve its intended effect of reducing the number of serious complications arising from influenza infections?

A. Many of the state's residents question the effectiveness of the influenza vaccine.
B. Most people between the ages of 12 and 80 who received the vaccine last year will not be eligible to receive the vaccine at the special flu-shot clinics.
C. Of the patients who developed serious complications after contracting the influenza virus during the past decade, nearly ten percent had been vaccinated for the virus.
D. The majority of the state's senior citizens over the age of 80 who live at home rely on other adults for transportation, who are unavailable to drive them to the clinics during the specified hours.
E. Some children under the age of 12 are home-schooled and have never been to any of the local elementary schools.

Since the passage does not have a clear conclusion, let's make sure we understand the facts presented
 
 We are told that the demand for the influenza vaccine exceeds the supply in the state 
 
The governor has issued a directive in order to manage the impact of this shortage on public health
 
According to the directive, the vaccine will "be made available first to groups most vulnerable to serious complications from the illness." We can infer that these groups are children under the age of 12 and seniors over the age of 80, since those groups will be given the first opportunity to receive the vaccine at special flu-shot clinics
 
Those special flu-shot clinics will be hosted by local elementary schools and senior citizens' centers and will be open for three consecutive weekdays from 9:00 a.m. until 5:00 p.m
 
 Now we need to select a statement that most strongly suggests that the governor's directive will not minimize the number of serious complications arising from influenza infections 
 
 (A) Many of the state's residents question the effectiveness of the influenza vaccine 
 
 Although residents question the effectiveness of the vaccine, this does not tell us anything about the actual effectiveness of the vaccine. Thus, choice (A) does not suggest that the governor's plan will fail and can be eliminated 
 
 (B) Most people between the ages of 12 and 80 who received the vaccine last year will not be eligible to receive the vaccine at the special flu-shot clinics 
 
 As stated above, we can infer that children under the age of 12 and seniors over the age of 80 are the groups most vulnerable to serious complications from the illness. The governor wishes to minimize serious complications by ensuring that those groups receive the vaccine. It is true that some people between the ages of 12 and 80 who are unable to get the vaccine because of the new directive might end up developing serious complications. But this does not strongly suggest that those cases will outweigh the cases of serious complications prevented by vaccinating the most vulnerable groups. Thus, choice (B) can be eliminated 
 
 (C) Of the patients who developed serious complications after contracting the influenza virus during the past decade, nearly ten percent had been vaccinated for the virus 
 
 This statement tells us that even if all children under the age of 12 and all seniors over the age of 80 receive the vaccine, some of those people will still end up developing serious complications. However, we need a choice that strongly suggests that the plan will fail to minimize the number of serious complications, not fail to eliminate the number of serious complications. Ten percent is a relatively small portion, so choice (C) does not strongly suggest that the governor's plan will fail. Eliminate (C) 
 
 (D) The majority of the state's senior citizens over the age of 80 who live at home suffer from conditions that make transporting those citizens difficult, unsafe, or inconvenient 
 
 If the majority of senior citizens over the age of 80 are unable to leave their homes, then they will be unable to receive the vaccine at the special clinics. Because demand for the vaccine exceeds supply, those people may be unable to receive the vaccine before supplies run out. Even though this choice has no impact on children under the age of 12, it presents a major flaw in the governor's plan. Hang on to choice (D) 
 
 (E) Some children under the age of 12 are home-schooled and have never been to any of the local elementary schools 
 
 It doesn't matter if the children have never been to the local elementary schools. As long as they can get to the elementary schools to receive the vaccine, the governor's plan is sound. Eliminate choice (E) 
 
 (D) is the best answer

Answer: D

ajr1994 · Answer

I think this is a  high-quality  question and the explanation isn't clear enough, please elaborate. Nothing indicates that a majority or even any of the Senior Citizens live at home and not senior centers. Why is this the answer?

DivyaKnows · Answer

Here the reason we are looking for is to find a way by which the plan to minimize the number of serious complications will surely fail, so basically it is a Flaw in the reasoning question.

Plan is to vaccinate below 12 and above 80 first. Now in what circumstances will the plan fail, if the above 80 category don't show up for vaccinations.

Therefore Option C is the answer.

Niveditha28 · Answer

I dont understand why opt D is better then Opt c. Would be great if someone could elobarate more on it. the explanation is very confusing.

OPT C Says:  Of the patients who developed serious complications after contracting the influenza virus during the past decade, nearly ten percent had been vaccinated for the virus

although all children below 12 yrs and elders above 80 yrs are vaccinated , there are patients who have already contracted influenza virus but 90% of them are still not vaccinated. 
Governors plan will fail when these 90% of people ( who maynot lie in the age group specified) develop complications due to the virus .

This choice weakens the statement and is better choice than D in my opinion.

sarvesh93sah · Answer

I have a few questions regarding the OA. 
Even though the majority of senior citizens cannot be diagnosed as they can not move from their home, we cannot say that this reason is enough to weaken the conclusion. Because the choice D does not give any info about the children less than 8yrs of age. If say 50% of those children had been diagnosed successfully then the plan should have been considered successful as the number of serious complications arising from influenza infections would have decreased.

For Eg: There are 100 senior citizens and 100 children less than 8yrs of age.
Total serious case - 200.

Majority of senior citizen - let us consider 90%. i.e, not diagnosed - 90. Diagnosed - 10
Children - No info abt them in choice D. But let us consider 50% of them got diagnosed. i.e, 50
Total serious case after vaccination = 200-60 = 140<200. Therefore the plan has minimized the number of serious complications arising from influenza infections

So,  choice D  is the best possible answer choice even though it leaves many questions unanswered. 
 I personally feel that this question is not of GMAT standard.

simonnguyen · Answer

D. The majority of the state's senior citizens over the age of 80 who live at home suffer from conditions that make transporting those citizens difficult, unsafe, or inconvenient.

Answer D has flaw

When it says the majority of elderlies who stay at home, can not commute, that does not refer to the majority of the elderlies in the state. Majority (99%) of those elderlies who stay at home (2% of the entire population stays at home) is only 1.98% !! Do you agree with me ?

HWPO · Answer

I completely agree with you. Say only 10 people over 80 stay at home. Majority of them will only be >5. What if the rest of elderly population lives at nursing homes and other places where it is easy to get vaccinated ? (and say they amount to 100,000). I would edit the question a little bit

noobmaster68add1 · Answer

The question asks about minimizing the number of serious complications. So, a weaken question. Even if we consider D, the number of cases will still reduce because children will get vaccinated. I think this question has gaps.

fireagablast · Answer

The answer provided is not clear as to why D is a better answer than B.
B says "most" of the children and old adults who were vaccinated last year, assumedly because they are similarly at risk as this year, won't be able to be vaccinated under the govenors plan.
D says that "the majority" and old adults won't be able to get the vaccine.
The answer explanation uses the word "some" when the actual answer uses "most". Huge doubts on this, granted I was between B and D.

I'm not sure how the answer is determining that "most", which is largely synonymous with "majority", of TWO groups of people is somehow a worse answer the "the majority", "or most", of only one of the groups. 
Nevermind the fact that, in reality, children are often vaccinated as a first priority for flu simply because of how transmissible it is between children who often get their parents sick.

MyNameisFritz · Answer

I think answer D has many flaws:

It says: The majority of the state's senior citizens over the age of 80 who live at home suffer from conditions that make transporting those citizens difficult, unsafe, or inconvenient.

1) But how about children under the age of 12? What if all of them will get the vaccines?

2) D says "majority of the state's senior citizens over the age of 80  who live at home " - but how about those who do not live at home but at a nursing home or together with their kids? What if those who live at home are a very small portion? A lot of assumptions need to be made here...

bb · Answer

Hi. You are ABSOLUTELY CORRECT .... BUT those arguments do not matter. Even if it is just 1 senior citizen, the answer choice is valid.

Why? Because for this question type, that's good enough.  
What we want is NOT a bullet-proof plan. Our question does not say which of the following will ensure that the maximum number of people possible get the vaccine or which of the following must be met. Our question is very modest and asks:

Which of the following, if true, most strongly suggests that the governor's directive will not minimize the number of serious complications arising from influenza infections?

Since D is the only option that will cause some seniors who live at home to not get vaccine, it goes against the plan and weakens the plan. None of the other answer choices actually weaken the plan. Would you agree with that? Or do you feel another choice challenges/weakens the plan?

Answering your questions specifically:  
 1. If all the kids under 12 get the vaccines - OK, that's fine. They all got it last year since there was no shortage so it won't be any different.

2. Yep, those who do not live at home will also get the vaccine at the clinics but there is a group that won't and that's the most damaging piece of evidence against the plan. It is pretty weak piece of evidence but in the absence of ANY OTHER option, this one is the best (as weak as it may be)

bb · Answer

Hi. Sorry, long overdue reply. If you read the (B) carefully, you see that it is talking about the flue clinics. It means people can still get the vaccine but not at the clinics. That's the reason this option does not weaken or impact the plan really. Last year there were no clinics so adding/introducing clinics for the over 80 and under 12 who are the most at risk does not challenge the plan since this group is at a lower risk of developing complications.

(B) Most people between the ages of 12 and 80 who received the vaccine last year will not be eligible to receive the vaccine  at the special flu-shot clinics .

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