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# When people predict that certain result will not take place

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Manager
Joined: 24 Jul 2007
Posts: 196

Kudos [?]: 7 [0], given: 0

When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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06 Aug 2007, 01:21
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When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.

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Director
Joined: 29 Aug 2005
Posts: 855

Kudos [?]: 488 [0], given: 7

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06 Aug 2007, 01:52
I will go with D. It is an inference question.
The argument has two parts:
1. The perception about the trial
2. Reality
Choice D is just paraphrasing the conclusion of the author.

Only D and E is worth analysing, the rest is out of scope.

financeguy wrote:
When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.

Kudos [?]: 488 [0], given: 7

Director
Joined: 29 Jul 2006
Posts: 852

Kudos [?]: 141 [0], given: 0

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06 Aug 2007, 02:22
Only D seems relevant to me.

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Director
Joined: 11 Jun 2007
Posts: 910

Kudos [?]: 280 [0], given: 0

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11 Aug 2007, 12:57
financeguy wrote:
When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.

This question is quite convoluted and I was confused trying to understand the argument made.

"When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation."

my take:
A prediction
B action
initially: not A unless B
but actually: B then A
so more than one result

Although I'm not 100% sure my answer is E. What is the OA and can anyone else shed some light?

Kudos [?]: 280 [0], given: 0

Manager
Joined: 17 May 2007
Posts: 169

Kudos [?]: 14 [0], given: 0

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11 Aug 2007, 13:04

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Manager
Joined: 17 May 2007
Posts: 169

Kudos [?]: 14 [0], given: 0

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12 Aug 2007, 00:45
Hey financeguy can you please publish OA

Thanks

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12 Aug 2007, 00:45
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