Thanks for your reply
KarishmaBKarishmaB wrote:
PReciSioN wrote:
I wanted to speculate about what other information could weaken the argument.
Let's think about some scenarios -
Scenario 1) Evidence comes to light that even before temperatures in the Arctic started to rise, the northern areas had more than 80 snowfree days.
This is contradicting the premise:
Guillemots need 80 consecutive snow-free days in a year to raise their chicks, so until average temperatures in the Arctic began to rise recently, the guillemots’ range was limited to the southernmost Arctic coast.The premises need to be taken to be true. Hence this option won't make sense.
I believe that the premise is that "
Guillemots need 80 consecutive snow -free days in a year to raise their chicks", which the author is using to provide support for his Intermediate conclusion - "
So until average temperatures in the Arctic began to rise recently, he guillemots’ range was limited to the southernmost Arctic coast". Also the author doesn't explicity mention that the northern areas did NOT have 80 snow free days earlier, but it is implied in his reasoning, which can be wrong. There could be another reason for why Guillemots were limited to the Southern areas.
What I mean to say his, the author is making 2 observations - 1. Guillemots need 80 consecutive snow free days. 2. until recently, they were limited to southernmost coast. and the implied reasoning behind this is that the north did not have 80 snowfree days. Surely we can attack this reasoning, as it's not a premise/fact.
Quote:
I don't see the logic of this either. The argument tells us "if the warming continues, the guillemots’ range will probably be enlarged by being extended northward along the coast."
They haven't given a timeline of when this will happen. They have said "if it continues." If it continues, at some time it will be warm enough to have 80 snowfree days. What we have to worry about it whether the range will be enlarged or not.
Even if the warming continues indefinitely , I don't believe it guarantees 80
consecutuive snowfree days. Yes, the temperatures will rise, but they may not be enough to result in snowfree days. Even if they do, and the number of snowfree days increases, the north still may not achieve 80
consecutuive snowfree days.
Would really appreciate your thoughts on this!
Thanks!