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Re: Guillemots are birds of Arctic regions. They feed on fish that gather [#permalink]
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bahruz1992 wrote:
Thank you very much for very detailed and understandable explanation. I have one concern regarding (c): Answer (C) says that not ALL, but "MUCH of the thin ice" will disappear, implying that Guillemots will still be alive in the south, but not as many quantity as before. This inference implies that range of Guillmots will actually enlarge. So, this answer does not weaken the conclusion. If the answer (C) says, "ALL of the thin ice" will disappear, then I would definitely choose (C). Can you please comment on this opinion?

It seems like you’re referring to (D) and not to (C), but let us know if we’re wrong about that!

It’s important to note that to weaken the argument, we do NOT have to prove that the guillemots’ range will disappear. We merely need evidence that the range may not be extended. (D) gives us reason to believe that this is the case, even if all of the thin ice won’t disappear.

For example, let’s say that guillemots currently inhabit 200 square miles along the Arctic coast. It’s possible that arctic warming will allow them to access 50 square miles northward. But if MUCH of their current habitat (let’s say, 100 square miles) disappears, guillemots will only inhabit 150 square miles along the arctic coast. Therefore, even though all of the thin ice will not disappear, their range will NOT increase. For that reason, we can eliminate (D).

I hope that helps!
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Re: Guillemots are birds of Arctic regions. They feed on fish that gather [#permalink]
GMATNinja KarishmaB

Hi,

In Option B

Had the option stated that: Predators in regions that are further north are more dangerous than they are in South. Then would it weaken the argument?

My understanding: This would prevent the G birds from extending their range further north, thereby weakening the argument.

Thanks
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Re: Guillemots are birds of Arctic regions. They feed on fish that gather [#permalink]
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ShantanuKejriwal wrote:
GMATNinja KarishmaB

Hi,

In Option B

Had the option stated that: Predators in regions that are further north are more dangerous than they are in South. Then would it weaken the argument?

My understanding: This would prevent the G birds from extending their range further north, thereby weakening the argument.

Thanks


'dangerous' doesn't make a strong case. Predators eat the prey so there can be nothing less or more dangerous about it. Yes, if an option suggests that in the northern regions, "predators are more rampant (far more in number) or many other different predators are there etc," one would need to consider whether the G birds will be able to extend their range. So that will possibly weaken the option but we do need to consider the other available options.
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Re: Guillemots are birds of Arctic regions. They feed on fish that gather [#permalink]
Hi MartyTargetTestPrep - I thought (D) strengthened or was at best irrelevant.

When I read "thin ice" in option (D) - as per my screenshot - I thought "Thin ice" as seen in option (D) was referring to "thin sheets of floating ice" as seen in the premise (first line in argument)

Thus, if the "Thin sheets of floating ice" will disappear - - that just means the Guillemots have easier access to fish in southern Arctic now.

Before the Guillemots had to get to fish by looking for fish beneath the ice.

Now that the ice is all gone -- its easier picking for the Guillemots

Thus -- this helps the Guillemots live easier in the south.
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Re: Guillemots are birds of Arctic regions. They feed on fish that gather [#permalink]
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jabhatta2 wrote:
Hi MartyTargetTestPrep - I thought (D) strengthened or was at best irrelevant.

When I read "thin ice" in option (D) - as per my screenshot - I thought "Thin ice" as seen in option (D) was referring to "thin sheets of floating ice" as seen in the premise (first line in argument)

Thus, if the "Thin sheets of floating ice" will disappear - - that just means the Guillemots have easier access to fish in southern Arctic now.

Before the Guillemots had to get to fish by looking for fish beneath the ice.

Now that the ice is all gone -- its easier picking for the Guillemots

Thus -- this helps the Guillemots live easier in the south.

Here's the issue.

The passage says that the Guillemots feed on fish that GATHER beneath thin sheets of floating ice. So, we can see that the presence of the ice somehow results in the fish gathering and that the gathered fish are what the Guillemots feed on.

So, if the thin ice disappears, then the fish will no longer gather, and the Guillemots may no longer have fish to feed on.

Thus, rather than help the Guillemots live easier in the south, the melting of the ice may make living in the south difficult or impossible for the Guillemots, in which case their range may not expand because, while they'll be able to live further north, they'll no longer be able to live in the south.
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Re: Guillemots are birds of Arctic regions. They feed on fish that gather [#permalink]
Hi MartyTargetTestPrep - this is the conclusion

Quote:
Therefore, if the warming continues, the guillemots’ range will probably be enlarged by being extended northward along the coast.


If you razer focus on the blue -- The conclusion is about the range being enlarged, specifically - extending northward along the coast

So in order to weaken, we need something that says

-- actually the Northern coast is NOT livable for the Guillemots

-- focusing on the live-ability of the south does not touch on the blue aspect of the conclusion whatso-ever

(B) i think does a better job because it 'focuses' on the North (along the coast)

Originally posted by jabhatta2 on 14 Jun 2022, 06:20.
Last edited by jabhatta2 on 14 Jun 2022, 08:12, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Guillemots are birds of Arctic regions. They feed on fish that gather [#permalink]
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jabhatta2 wrote:
Hi Marty - this is the conclusion

Quote:
Therefore, if the warming continues, the guillemots’ range will probably be enlarged by being extended northward along the coast.


If you razer focus on the blue -- The conclusion is about the range being enlarged, specifically - extending northward along the coast

So in order to weaken, we need something that says

-- actually the Northern coast is NOT livable for the Guillemots

Hmm, do we?

Quote:
-- focusing on the live-ability of the south does not touch on the blue aspect of the conclusion whatso-ever

Ah, but what if the range extends north BUT THE SOUTH DOESN'T WORK FOR THEM ANY MORE?

Will their range be ENLARGED?

Nope.

So, (D) seriously weakens the argument.
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Re: Guillemots are birds of Arctic regions. They feed on fish that gather [#permalink]
Hey Marty - thanks for responding.

If Guillemots LOSE the south, i agree that the range for guillemots WILL NOT INCREASE (the range may stay the same or decrease)

BUT THAT IS NOT THE CONCLUSION

The conclusion ISN'T that the range WILL ENLARGE

The conclusion is that the range will ENLARGE SPECIFICALLY by enlargement in the north along the coast

The blue aspect of the conclusion is being ignored if you select (D) per my view
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Re: Guillemots are birds of Arctic regions. They feed on fish that gather [#permalink]
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jabhatta2 wrote:
Hey Marty - thanks for responding.

If Guillemots LOSE the south, i agree that the range for guillemots WILL NOT INCREASE (the range may stay the same or decrease)

BUT THAT IS NOT THE CONCLUSION

The conclusion ISN'T that the range WILL ENLARGE

The conclusion is that the range will ENLARGE SPECIFICALLY by enlargement in the north along the coast

The blue aspect of the conclusion is being ignored if you select (D) per my view

The blue part doesn't matter if the range is not enlarged.

You're basically arguing that, even if a choice shows that it's absolutely impossible for the range to be enlarged, if that choice doesn't mention the north coast, the choice won't cast doubt on the conclusion.

Think about it.
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Re: Guillemots are birds of Arctic regions. They feed on fish that gather [#permalink]
My problem with D is what if the range actually enlarges by the bird's population being extended northward? Even if we consider the southern coast range is wiped out because of the lack of food, what if the bird can find food sources in the north? How can we ignore that possibility? Even though I don't agree with any other option choice ( I marked B but I see where I went wrong), I can't agree with D either. I understand the option choice says, "much" of the thin ice in southern arctic will disappear, but how much is "much"? Besides, if warming continues the chances of thin ice appearing towards north would increase, how do we decide that this situation will not help the bird to enlarge it's range at all?
Please help.
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Re: Guillemots are birds of Arctic regions. They feed on fish that gather [#permalink]
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Soumanti Roy wrote:
My problem with D is what if the range actually enlarges by the bird's population being extended northward? Even if we consider the southern coast range is wiped out because of the lack of food, what if the bird can find food sources in the north? How can we ignore that possibility? Even though I don't agree with any other option choice ( I marked B but I see where I went wrong), I can't agree with D either. I understand the option choice says, "much" of the thin ice in southern arctic will disappear, but how much is "much"? Besides, if warming continues the chances of thin ice appearing towards north would increase, how do we decide that this situation will not help the bird to enlarge it's range at all?
Please help.
GMATNinja, EMPOWERgmatVerbal

Notice that for this question, the correct answer doesn't need to completely destroy the argument. We just need the answer choice that "most seriously weakens" it.

Keeping this in mind, let's analyze the passage:

The argument concludes that if the warming continues, "the guillemots' range will probably be enlarged by being extended northward along the coast." So if (D) is true, and "much of the thin ice in the southern Arctic" disappears, that would presumably disrupt the guillemot's food source in the south. Consequently, even if the guillemot's range extends northward, it wouldn't necessarily be enlarged.

In other words, while the guillemots might gain ground in the north, they might lose ground in the south, leading to a net gain of zero. So (D) could weaken the argument.

As you point out, (D) doesn't definitively disprove the argument. We could probably imagine scenarios where the thin ice in the southern Arctic disappears, but the guillemot's range still gets bigger. For instance, maybe the fish which the guillemots eat somehow adapt to the warmer waters and stay in the south? Or maybe the guillemots find a new food source in the south? Or as you say, maybe the guillemots gain more ground in the north than they lose in the south? The problem is, each of those scenarios requires us to make a leap that we can't really support.

From another angle: even if (D) doesn't demolish the argument, it could weaken it more than any of the other answer choices. For both of those reasons, (D) is correct.

I hope that helps!
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Guillemots are birds of Arctic regions. They feed on fish that gather [#permalink]
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GODSPEED wrote:
Guillemots are birds of Arctic regions. They feed on fish that gather beneath thin sheets of floating ice, and they nest on nearby land. Guillemots need 80 consecutive snow-free days in a year to raise their chicks, so until average temperatures in the Arctic began to rise recently, the guillemots’ range was limited to the southernmost Arctic coast. Therefore, if the warming continues, the guillemots’ range will probably be enlarged by being extended northward along the coast.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?


(A) Even if the warming trend continues, there will still be years in which guillemot chicks are killed by an unusually early snow.

(B) If the Arctic warming continues, guillemots’ current predators are likely to succeed in extending their own range farther north.

(C) Guillemots nest in coastal areas, where temperatures are generally higher than in inland areas.

(D) If the Arctic warming continues, much of the thin ice in the southern Arctic will disappear.

(E) The fish that guillemots eat are currently preyed on by a wider variety of predators in the southernmost Arctic regions than they are farther north.
 

This is my least-favorite (okay, most-hated) official CR question of all time. I almost always suggest not arguing with the test-writer since that's a fruitless endeavor, but I agree with anyone who thinks GMAC just missed this one!

"Much" of the ice will disappear? So what? The argument concludes simply that the range will probably be enlarged. Maybe it enlarges by tenfold. Maybe it barely enlarges at all. "Much" isn't "all," so we have reason to believe that the range will grow, even with much of the ice melting.

As for whether the disappearance of "much" of the ice will meaningfully worsen (I'd argue that it would need to completely remove) the supply or accessibility of food, maybe there will be the same volume of prey, just now we will have fewer places to have to go hunting around for it. And even if the volume of prey goes down farther north, answer choice D doesn't mean that it'll vanish entirely, and if there's some left, the range grows. Again, we shouldn't care by how much the range grows, just that it does grow.

Crap answer to a crap question!! <we need a poop emoji>­
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Re: Guillemots are birds of Arctic regions. They feed on fish that gather [#permalink]
Understanding the argument -
Guillemots are birds of Arctic regions. Fact
They feed on fish that gather beneath thin sheets of floating ice, and they nest on nearby land. Fact. Nearby land means the coastal areas.
Guillemots need 80 consecutive snow-free days in a year to raise their chicks, so until average temperatures in the Arctic began to rise recently, the guillemots’ range was limited to the southernmost Arctic coast. Fact
Therefore, if the warming continues, the guillemots’ range will probably be enlarged by being extended northward along the coast. - Conclusion.

Let's cut all modifiers and see what is the bare conclusion. Its "range will be enlarged." The scope of the argument is limited to weakening that "range will be enlarged.

Option Elimination -

(A) Even if the warming trend continues, there will still be years in which guillemot chicks are killed by an unusually early snow. - so this applies to the current situation as well. And how is it even concerned about the scope of the argument, which is weakening that "range will be enlarged? Out of scope.

(B) If the Arctic warming continues, guillemots’ current predators are likely to succeed in extending their own range farther north. - "Current predators" is important. So if they are current predators, then guillemots (pronounced as gi·luh·maat) and guillemots are successfully living in the south, so if the predators move north, the challenge remains the same. Distortion.

(C) Guillemots nest in coastal areas, where temperatures are generally higher than in inland areas. This comparison is out of scope.

(D) If the Arctic warming continues, much of the thin ice in the southern Arctic will disappear. - Ok. So logically, if they move north as the temperature increases, the range will increase? Right? But the range will only increase if they have the food left in the south. So this option says as the temperatures increase, the food in the south is lost. If the food in the south is lost, the range is limited to the north. Yes. We don't know the range of the north or the range of the south and whether there is a net enlargement. But that is Immaterial as the conclusion says that concerning the current reference point in the south, as the temperature increases, the Gs move north, and the range increases, so concerning that scenario, as there is no food in the south, the range has undoubtedly reduced and not enlarged. So this is a solid weakener.

(E) The fish that guillemots eat are currently preyed on by a wider variety of predators in the southernmost Arctic regions than they are farther north. - Strengthener.
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Re: Guillemots are birds of Arctic regions. They feed on fish that gather [#permalink]
I wanted to speculate about what other information could weaken the argument.

Let's think about some scenarios -

Scenario 1) Evidence comes to light that even before temperatures in the Arctic started to rise, the northern areas had more than 80 snowfree days.

Weakens? I believe yes. If such evidence comes to light, then there might be some other reason why the birds stick to the southern areas and increasing temperatures might add no new factors causing them to move to the north.

Scenario 2) Increasing temperatures might not be sufficient for northern areas to start having atleast 80 snowfree days.

Weakens? I believe yes. If they can't have 80 snowfree days which is listed as a necessity for them to raise chicks, they might not move to northern areas.

Am I right in my thinking? Do these scenarios also weaken the argument? KarishmaB GMATNinja @GmatNinjaTwo. (They were part of my pre-thinking and I wanted to touch base on the snowfree day information present in the argument which wasn't tested in the question at all)

Thanks!!­
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Re: Guillemots are birds of Arctic regions. They feed on fish that gather [#permalink]
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PReciSioN wrote:
I wanted to speculate about what other information could weaken the argument.

Let's think about some scenarios -

Scenario 1) Evidence comes to light that even before temperatures in the Arctic started to rise, the northern areas had more than 80 snowfree days.
 

This is contradicting the premise:
Guillemots need 80 consecutive snow-free days in a year to raise their chicks, so until average temperatures in the Arctic began to rise recently, the guillemots’ range was limited to the southernmost Arctic coast.

The premises need to be taken to be true. Hence this option won't make sense. 

Quote:
 Scenario 2) Increasing temperatures might not be sufficient for northern areas to start having atleast 80 snowfree days.


I don't see the logic of this either. The argument tells us "if the warming continues, the guillemots’ range will probably be enlarged by being extended northward along the coast."

They haven't given a timeline of when this will happen. They have said "if it continues." If it continues, at some time it will be warm enough to have 80 snowfree days. What we have to worry about it whether the range will be enlarged or not. 
Quote:
 Weakens? I believe yes. If they can't have 80 snowfree days which is listed as a necessity for them to raise chicks, they might not move to northern areas.

Am I right in my thinking? Do these scenarios also weaken the argument? KarishmaB GMATNinja @GmatNinjaTwo. (They were part of my pre-thinking and I wanted to touch base on the snowfree day information present in the argument which wasn't tested in the question at all)

Thanks!!­

­
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Re: Guillemots are birds of Arctic regions. They feed on fish that gather [#permalink]
Thanks for your reply KarishmaB
KarishmaB wrote:
PReciSioN wrote:
I wanted to speculate about what other information could weaken the argument.

Let's think about some scenarios -

Scenario 1) Evidence comes to light that even before temperatures in the Arctic started to rise, the northern areas had more than 80 snowfree days.




 

This is contradicting the premise:
Guillemots need 80 consecutive snow-free days in a year to raise their chicks, so until average temperatures in the Arctic began to rise recently, the guillemots’ range was limited to the southernmost Arctic coast.

The premises need to be taken to be true. Hence this option won't make sense. 

I believe that the premise is that "Guillemots need 80 consecutive snow -free days in a year to raise their chicks", which the author is using to provide support for his Intermediate conclusion - "So until average temperatures in the Arctic began to rise recently, he guillemots’ range was limited to the southernmost Arctic coast". Also the author doesn't explicity mention that the northern areas did NOT have 80 snow free days earlier, but it is implied in his reasoning, which can be wrong. There could be another reason for why Guillemots were limited to the Southern areas. 
What I mean to say his, the author is making 2 observations - 1. Guillemots need 80 consecutive snow free days. 2. until recently, they were limited to southernmost coast. and the implied reasoning behind this is that the north did not have 80 snowfree days. Surely we can attack this reasoning, as it's not a premise/fact.
Quote:
I don't see the logic of this either. The argument tells us "if the warming continues, the guillemots’ range will probably be enlarged by being extended northward along the coast."

They haven't given a timeline of when this will happen. They have said "if it continues." If it continues, at some time it will be warm enough to have 80 snowfree days. What we have to worry about it whether the range will be enlarged or not. 

­Even if the warming continues indefinitely , I don't believe it guarantees 80 consecutuive snowfree days. Yes, the temperatures will rise, but they may not be enough to result in snowfree days. Even if they do, and the number of snowfree days increases, the north still may not achieve 80 consecutuive snowfree days. 

Would really appreciate your thoughts on this!
Thanks!­­­
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Re: Guillemots are birds of Arctic regions. They feed on fish that gather [#permalink]
'd' seems more of a strengthener , because if the thin sheets of ice will disappear, the accessibility of the fish will increase and hence, they will be able to catch them more easily.­
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Re: Guillemots are birds of Arctic regions. They feed on fish that gather [#permalink]
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